British victory in Irish war of independence

To be fair of all the possible outcomes OTL was the only way to prevent outright massacres. Civil War was probably inevitable no matter what the Government tried. If WWI hadn't happened it would probably have started at the next election.
 
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Or doesn't separate them. Because while the "north" contained a Unionist majority, Partition was not accepted by the minority or many of their fellow countrymen in the "south".

Unless you want a much smaller "north" and ethnic cleansing of Nationalists from it and a transfer of Unionists from other parts of Ireland into it.
The four county option?
 
Pretty much. Not sure that rump statelet is viable without the equivalent of a Single Market with the rest of Ireland though.

Which will be difficult to maintain, even if De Valera and autarchy are avoided.
Considering the main industries of the North, even with Dev and autarky, and barring any other butterflies, you are talking about a loss of viability in the north by the mid 60's at the earliest, early 80's at the latest.
 
Considering the main industries of the North, even with Dev and autarky, and barring any other butterflies, you are talking about a loss of viability in the north by the mid 60's at the earliest, early 80's at the latest.
Yes if things develop as OTL, with the loss of Empire and general decline in competitiveness of British industry. But were it to be able to draw more easily on Irish raw materials and sell into it, some lighter industries might spring up instead. But it is difficult to argue for a much more prosperous island of Ireland pre-1980s without having earlier and deeper Home Rule and no Partition.
 
Yes if things develop as OTL, with the loss of Empire and general decline in competitiveness of British industry. But were it to be able to draw more easily on Irish raw materials and sell into it, some lighter industries might spring up instead. But it is difficult to argue for a much more prosperous island of Ireland pre-1980s without having earlier and deeper Home Rule and no Partition.
I think there are pods that could be made that would result in a more prosperous island, but a lot of them need outside factors as well, but honestly I'm not sure having no Partition helps hugely, most likely you have more issues trying to stablise "NI" for example.
 
Not the worst idea I've heard...

It is annoying that there's a view that there was simply no industrial capacity outside of Ulster, it was much less for a number of reasons and over the decades suffered from a lot of bad decisions but it did exist, A pod with a different Anglo-Irish relationship opens up other options. Like the idiot that destroyed the Haulbowline dockyard being kept far from it.
Limerick city had major textiles factories and made uniform for the British army in the crimea and the CSA in the American civil war.

THE Tait Clothing factory employed more than 1,000 workers in Edward Street in its heyday​

Cork had the major ford plant building tractors and a dunlop plant making tyres.
The inchore works made any thing for rail road stock to munations.
Shipbuilding in cork
Cordite was made in Kynoch’s Arklow.
woollen mills such as in Foxford, Co. Mayo, and Crumlin

State munitions factories were also established employing around 2,100 people, mostly women, in Cork, Dublin, Galway and Waterford. https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/irelands-role-in-the-first-world-war
 
Keeping Ireland part of the UK would be hard, but not impossible.
I do not think Ireland was an integrated part of the UK.
Most British political parties had no MPs in Ireland by 1914.
Ireland was the only part of the UK that required armed paramilitary police to stop rebellions.
RIC main job was not stopped crime, but gathering intel in Ireland to prevent rebellions.
Scotland yard was set up to deal with Fenian bombs in England.
RIC in the phoenix park in Dublin was where the British trained the police armed police force for the empire.
Reports of all aspects of life were gathered on the population so any unusual activity could be monitored.
The big cause of unhappiness with the rebellion in 1916 in Dublin was pay for Irish soldiers in the crown forces stopped arriving leading to hardship for the families dependent on the money arriving every week.
One of the big factors turning the Irish against British rule was the very heavy losses in the battle of the Somme and onwards.
Service in the crown forces went from a good way to provide for your family to a good way of getting the men in your family killed.
The conscription crisis late in the war was a big factor too.
The problem in Ireland is not just a military one.
The tax and court system collapsed in the war of independence. Courthouses and tax office were burnt.
Irish people took their legal problems to the republican courts.
Families of Police were boycotted leading over one-third of the police leaving the force.
Much rural police stations being abandon and burnt and this lost of intel for Dublin castle made control much harder.
While the British could win a military victory with enough men and money, but they have a very big mess to clean up to get the courts and tax system working and rebuild the police and transport system.
Widespread boycotts of crown forces could continue after winning.
At the end of the war, Britain had a lot of problems much more important than Ireland to deal with so did not spend too much time thinking about Ireland. I am not sure it was worth the trouble it caused to holding on to any longer.
I do not think any other part of the UK had as many rebellion as Ireland with the possible exception of Scotland.
I think there would be more rebellions in the future.

If Ireland had stayed in the union what would have happened?
If Sinn Féin remains an abstentionist that would leave a lot of unfilled seats in parliament.
If they take their seats they could hold the balance of power between the major parties. That could have a very disruptive effect on British politics.

I think Ireland would get bombed in ww2.
Dublin and Cork could get hit very hard. OTL Belfast had very little air defence when it was bombed.
I wonder would the Germans have any better luck arming Irish rebels in ww2 than OTL.
As to the treaty ports.
The important ones were in Derry and Belfast were used.
The British had to ask permission to use them and this was given, but not for the ones in the 26 counties.
The southern ports were not important as the convoys went around Northern Ireland as the southern route was too close to airbases in France.
The economy with free trade and access to the markets in the British trade zone would be stronger.
Irish economic policy of Autarky after Irish independence did a lot of damage to the economy. Only dropped in the early 1960s.
The catholic church would do a deal with the winning side no matter who won.
Strangely the catholic church did not ask for the denomination education system in Ireland.
Protestant churches in Ireland asked for it as they did not want to send their children to schools where the majority would be catholic.
Once denominational education was introduced in Ireland the catholic church was happy with it.
 
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There is another possible option and that's to couple industrialising Ireland with moving people from Great Britain's workhouses to Ireland to take those new jobs. Now I'm not saying it's a good option or that it wouldn't cause a lot of trouble, but it is something they could have tried.
In fact quite a few of the people in workhouses in Great Britain were either Irish migrants or possibly people displaced from jobs by them. So industrialising Ireland (if possible) would reduce pressure in Britain too.

Trivial Fun Factoid* - there was a riot in Girvan (Ayrshire) in 1831 when the town was stormed by "the worst kind of Irish migrants" who had moved there and to neighbouring parishes to work as home weavers and labourers. The respectable inhabitants had to call out the Yeomanry to suppress the violence. The rioters were Orange Order marchers from Ulster but probably from a different branch of the Presbyterian church. Their march had been banned by the town authorities but they went ahead anyway.

In fact tensions between Ulster immigrants and Lowland Scots were evident for much of the early eighteenth century, with the Orange Order marches banned in many cities. Their assimilation into Scottish culture came later when Highlanders and Catholic Irish started to emigrate there from the Famine period onwards.

* Well, I think it is funny.
 
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