British Levant and the collapse of the Ottomans

Ok, maybe TL idea, lets say the Ottoman Empire has a bad day, a very bad day and quite rapidly collapses. Seeking stability in the region, London calls a Conference. A proposition is put forward for European intervention and annexation of ex-Ottoman lands. Austria received Serbia and other *Yugoslavian (an easy term, I know it didn't exist as a concept for many years) lands, at least as puppet kingdoms. Likewise Russia receives Romania and Bulgaria, de jure independent but very much in Russia's sphere. Britain gains the allegiance of a large Greece as well as control of large swathes of the Levant, Iraq and Arabia, essentially receiving all Ottoman lands in between Sinai and Turkey.

Now, the benfit for the British here is huge, large swathes of land that could be, if not easily then manageably controllable. Britain can also grantee stability in the areas they Annex and avoid complete catastrophe.

So my question is, would the British government agree? And if so, would they be able to control such a large amount of new land?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Well, that was the Eastern Question, wasn't it?

Ok, maybe TL idea, lets say the Ottoman Empire has a bad day, a very bad day and quite rapidly collapses. Seeking stability in the region, London calls a Conference. A proposition is put forward for European intervention and annexation of ex-Ottoman lands. Austria received Serbia and other *Yugoslavian (an easy term, I know it didn't exist as a concept for many years) lands, at least as puppet kingdoms. Likewise Russia receives Romania and Bulgaria, de jure independent but very much in Russia's sphere. Britain gains the allegiance of a large Greece as well as control of large swathes of the Levant, Iraq and Arabia, essentially receiving all Ottoman lands in between Sinai and Turkey.

Now, the benfit for the British here is huge, large swathes of land that could be, if not easily then manageably controllable. Britain can also grantee stability in the areas they Annex and avoid complete catastrophe.

So my question is, would the British government agree? And if so, would they be able to control such a large amount of new land?

Well, that was the Eastern Question, wasn't it?

When are you suggesting this occurs? Various national ambitions in the Balkans, Mediterranean, and points east conflicted at different times...

Best,
 
1) Timeframe?
2) If this happens in the middle decades of the 19th century as I suppose, what happens to the other provinces? Especially Mesopotamia, Libya, and the Arabian Peninsula. (I guess that NE Anatolia goes Russian).
 
1840, the POD was essentially a large scale assassination of the Ottoman royal family just before the Oriental Crisis kicks off. Turkish forces turn on each other supporting different Ottoman claimants and ethnic rebels rise up all over the place. The Balkans are lost very quickly and the British call a conference to intervene.

/scene

EDIT: In the Proposition, Mesopotamia and Arabia would go to Britain, with Libya to France. And yeah, Russia makes small gains in Anatolia as well. A Rump Turkish "Empire" will remain and Muhammed Ali's Kingdom will continue to exist but be limited to Egypt, not including Sinai.
 
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For much of the 19th century, the French viewed the Levant as their sphere of influence within the Ottoman Empire (even intervening in the Lebanon conflict of 1860). In the unlikely event of an Ottoman collapse, the French would not be okey dokey getting nothing in an settlement. And British rule would not necessarily be very stable. They are likely to see rebellion similar to those which erupted after their OTL occupation of the Mashriq. Surprisingly, Arabs tended not to see the imposition of Western Imperialism in the Middle East all that positively.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Subtly put...

For much of the 19th century, the French viewed the Levant as their sphere of influence within the Ottoman Empire (even intervening in the Lebanon conflict of 1860). In the unlikely event of an Ottoman collapse, the French would not be okey dokey getting nothing in an settlement. And British rule would not necessarily be very stable. They are likely to see rebellion similar to those which erupted after their OTL occupation of the Mashriq. Surprisingly, Arabs tended not to see the imposition of Western Imperialism in the Middle East all that positively.

Subtly put...;)

Best,
 
Not sure what the PoD of this is, but I doubt too many people will be happy with the proposed settlement.

1) Austria letting Russia get Romania and Bulgaria is probably not going to happen, especially in early 19thC. Control of the Danube, a major trading waterway, was considered a vitally important interest for Austria, important enough for it to 'betray' a Russia that had saved it during the Crimean War. If it gets Bulgaria as well then Austria is surrounded by Russia on basically 3 sides, as well as a potential 'fifth column' in terms of its massive Slavic population. If the Ottoman Empire collapses, it is almost certain that Austria will seek guarantees to have, at least, a Romania truly independent of Russia straddling the Danubian mouth.

2) As for Russia, I think Britain could, very grudgingly, accept a Bulgarian Russia w/o Aegean coast if the region does become a political vacuum (though Austria will always be preferred). Northeastern Anatolia is possible. Dardanelles and Constantinople - which, frankly, is what Russia would want in event of Ottoman collapse - is definitely a no-no. But if the Ottoman Empire collapses, I can't imagine why Nicholas I wouldn't just send a force down from Sevastopol to take the city, sparking Anglo-Russian War almost immediately an rendering any Conference useless.

3) France getting Tunisia and Libya will not be able to overcome the 'loss' of its sphere of influence in the Levant to Britain, but this is manageable as French interests there in the mid-19thC were definitely not important enough to anger Britain. The real sticking point would be Egypt, which is not likely to remain apart from any sphere of influence for long. If Britain gets Mesopotamia then the French will see it as only fair that they get Egypt in the long-run... which would not be something that the British can really accept. Better forgo Mesopotamia now for Egypt later.

4) I suppose you could argue trade-wise that Britain is certainly the most important player in the Levant during the 19thC (especially after Baltalimani), so there is some rationale for Britain to get those lands. But of course this would be turning an economic colony into a political colony, which is just much less preferable from mid-19thC Whitehall's point of view. Britain getting these lands would also require concessions to other powers, especially to Russia and France, which would probably outweigh any benefit that Mesopotamia can bring to the British Empire. So I doubt Britain would actually agree to such a settlement - though of course it does depend somewhat on who is actually in charge of this settlement.
 
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Redhand

Banned
There might be some minor bickering about Jerusalem and its religious status. Some will care (Russia) and some won't (Austria) but things could be complicated.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Russia wanted the straits and what amounts to Turkish Thrace

1840, the POD was essentially a large scale assassination of the Ottoman royal family just before the Oriental Crisis kicks off. Turkish forces turn on each other supporting different Ottoman claimants and ethnic rebels rise up all over the place. The Balkans are lost very quickly and the British call a conference to intervene.

/scene

EDIT: In the Proposition, Mesopotamia and Arabia would go to Britain, with Libya to France. And yeah, Russia makes small gains in Anatolia as well. A Rump Turkish "Empire" will remain and Muhammed Ali's Kingdom will continue to exist but be limited to Egypt, not including Sinai.

Russia wanted the straits and what amounts to Turkish Thrace, plus (to get there) what became Romania and Bulgaria; pan-slavism pretty much would suggest Serbia as well.

If they don't get that and a fair amount of northwestern Anatolia, they won't come to the table.

I doubt the British would ever accept the above, even in the 1840s, but stranger things have happened.

I could see - potentially - a multiple split in the 1840s as follows:

Russia - southeastern Balkans and northeastern Anatolia, as suggested above;
Britain - Cyprus and Egypt, plus the obvious canal concession;
France - North Africa (outside of Egypt) and the Levantine coast;
Turkey - Anatolia (outside of the Russian zone), the Levantine interior, Mesopotamia, etc.
Austria - Bosnia and Hercegovina, Montenegro, Albania, etc., down to Greece
Greece - whatever is left (Macedonia?)

Again, I think the above is very doubtful, even in the wake of an Ottoman collapse, but there is a chance - remote, but a chance - since it is early enough in the Great Game and not that distant from the period of Russo-French-British alliance against the Turks (as demonstrated at Navarino) that the three major powers might avoid war, and the smaller powers might accept what was left to them.

Italy is not a player because they don't exist yet, which makes balancing the questions slightly easier...

Again, I doubt it would happen, but that's about the "simplest" solution to the Eastern Question I can suggest.

Best,
 
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Ok, I made a mock up of my intended situation, to see what you guys think:

ovhELbX.png


This is super basic, something I whipped up to demonstrate my concept. France have been compensated with a chunk of the Levant and Cyprus, Russia has influence in Bulgaria and Romania as an effective puppet. Constantinople is Greek and Greece has done very, very well; being the only independent government aided by ethnic rebels. Egypt lost Sinai as compensation for being a dicke-bitch and refusing to acknowledge the coalitions existence. Serbia is large but under Austrian influence. Turkey exists as a rump kingdom.

Very much a first draft, opinions?

EDIT: Oh and as a spoiler, the intended name of the TL is Cape to Calcutta, so that might give you an idea of what I'm going for.
 
Was Western Imperialism that much worse than Ottoman Imperialism?
Ottoman Imperialism? We aren't talking about the Balkans here (and that is questionable) but we're talking about the Middle East where the vast majority of subjects saw the Ottoman Sultan/Caliph as the legitimate authority based on both a long standing tradition of ruling as well as religious authority based on the Sultan's position of Caliph.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Again, true

Ottoman Imperialism? We aren't talking about the Balkans here (and that is questionable) but we're talking about the Middle East where the vast majority of subjects saw the Ottoman Sultan/Caliph as the legitimate authority based on both a long standing tradition of ruling as well as religious authority based on the Sultan's position of Caliph.

Bismillah;)
 
Ok, I made a mock up of my intended situation, to see what you guys think:

-image-

This is super basic, something I whipped up to demonstrate my concept. France have been compensated with a chunk of the Levant and Cyprus, Russia has influence in Bulgaria and Romania as an effective puppet. Constantinople is Greek and Greece has done very, very well; being the only independent government aided by ethnic rebels. Egypt lost Sinai as compensation for being a dicke-bitch and refusing to acknowledge the coalitions existence. Serbia is large but under Austrian influence. Turkey exists as a rump kingdom.

Very much a first draft, opinions?

EDIT: Oh and as a spoiler, the intended name of the TL is Cape to Calcutta, so that might give you an idea of what I'm going for.

With a Greece that massive, why don`t they have parts of Western Anatolia as well? The Anatolian Greeks certainly make a bigger precentage of the population in the 19th century than they would in the 20th (especially without all the state-sponsored massacres), and the Turks couldn`t do a thing to stop this from happening.

And that`s a lot of clay the British have just claimed for themselves. A whole lot - perhaps a "Ottoman dissolution" scenario during the Belle Époque would be more interesting (after an Uber 1878 war) since then you`d also have Italy and Germany to consider in the colonial scheme.
 

Redhand

Banned
With a Greece that massive, why don`t they have parts of Western Anatolia as well? The Anatolian Greeks certainly make a bigger precentage of the population in the 19th century than they would in the 20th (especially without all the state-sponsored massacres), and the Turks couldn`t do a thing to stop this from happening.

And that`s a lot of clay the British have just claimed for themselves. A whole lot - perhaps a "Ottoman dissolution" scenario during the Belle Époque would be more interesting (after an Uber 1878 war) since then you`d also have Italy and Germany to consider in the colonial scheme.

Greece could probably get the Smyrna area and some coastal areas close to the straits and the territory it would take to make that continuous, but not much else. They didn't have the resources to handle that much territory. They could also get Rhodes, Crete, and Cyprus.
 
Greece could probably get the Smyrna area and some coastal areas close to the straits and the territory it would take to make that continuous, but not much else. They didn't have the resources to handle that much territory. They could also get Rhodes, Crete, and Cyprus.

If they can take as much in the Balkans as the map has shown, then they could take most of Western Anatolia - up until the easternmost border of the Manisa province, I think. Of course, Greece would have to be wholly dependent on the good will of the Great Powers for keeping this., but the same would be true if they would have annexed everything that map gave them in the Balkans.

If we want Greece to be able to maintain its gains by itself, an enlarged version of this map would be more preferable.
 
First of all, why in the world would Britain make such a colossal turn of policy towards the Eastern Question? Britain had vested interests in maintaining an Ottoman Empire under its influence to its economic benefit and to prevent Russia from gaining access to the Mediterranean.

Second, how could one reconciliate the ambitions of Russia, France, Britain and Austria towards the Balkans? That's just not doable - politicians wouldn't be able to just draw lines on a map and every Great Power would end up satisfied. Russia will be sure to want effective control of a much larger Bulgaria than the one in your map (see OTL Treaty of San Stefano), a special role in Constantinople if not outright annexation, access to the Mediterranean Sea, Serbia brought under its sphere of influence and increased influence in Greece. Britain would never accept even a quarter of these demands, and it will also want Cyprus as a naval base (OTL was no accident nor did the British just pick a neat looking island in 1878), but it certainly wouldn't accept the loss of influence in the Balkans and Anatolia, which it had before thanks to Greece and the Ottoman Empire. Greece will no longer feel the necessity of English protection and is very likely if not sure to come much closer to the Russians, who in turn will find themselves in a much bigger, earlier and high-stakes Great Game against the British. And that's not even considering the certain rifts to come between Austria and Russia over Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria as well between France and Britain over the Lebanon, Cyprus, Egypt and Cyprus should France lay claim on it. It's a mega-Crimean War waiting to happen, this time involving every OTL nation as well as all countries between the Danube and Mesopotamia. There's a reason no Great Power really wanted to dismantle the Ottoman Empire and held it together for as long as they could.

And how can you get the Bulgarians, Romanians, Serbians, Arabs and, most of all, Turks (or, more accurately for a pre-Turkish nationalism context, Muslims) to play along? First of all, Bulgaria couldn't be made a nation-state just like that, as this was before the 1870s, the establishment of their special millyet in 1860 and the 1841 revolt which pivoted Bulgarian nationalism. You also now have important Serb populations in Greece and that wouldn't be good, not to mention Serbians didn't just fight two wars to become puppets of the Habsburg monarchy. As for Arabs, that has been covered already. Romanians won't pose difficult problems but long-term, they will resent Russian control. Last but not least, you now have huge Muslim minorities across the Balkans long before resettlements were anywhere close to being considered a solution to demographic homogenisation of countries. And it would be interesting to see what happens to all those factions fighting a civil war for the throne of the Sultan once they are faced with an ultimatum, if not fait accomplit, to abandon Istanbul and 2/3rds of the Empire, to resettle where exactly? There can be no Ottoman state without Constantinople and there can be no Turkish state without Turkish nationalism and some kind of awakening. So what exactly is the country that exists in Anatolia, apart from majority Muslim and comprising of a myriad of ethnic groups with no cohesive national narrative and a very large Christian minority?

Lastly, how can one achieve a non-disastrous scenario for Greece as you're making it like 3 to 4 times as large as it was before (assuming a POD before 1912) with large to huge minorities north of Thessaly and Anatolia if it's given the coast or more, whilst keeping hundred of thousands of Greeks outside Greece? The country had just come out from a devastating War of Independence, three civil wars, political strife, with a bankrupt economy, a population in dire condition, a foreign incompetent King and the Megali Idea was not even existent back then. If you just give it so much land the entire thing will collapse on its own spectacularly.
 
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By 1840, Muhammad Ali's Egypt already controlled much of Syria and the Hedjaz. In the event of an Ottoman collapse, those lands would not be open to European powers. Most likely the Europeans recognize Egyptian indepdence and control of those lands. Depending on the nature of the Ottoman collapse, the British may even encourage Muhammd Ali to "save" the empire and become Emperor in Constantinople.

If so, we may see an earlier Ottoman collapse in the Balkans, but most of its holdings in the Middle East would be transferred to the Egyptians. The Russians might be able to take large sections of Armenia, but that is probably the extent of the losses.

The question of Istanbul would be difficult. The Greeks would want it. The Russians want it. Muhammad Ali would probably want it. Other parties at least have interest to it. The real question is whether the Egyptians could take it quickly and end discussion, or if someone else grabs it first which impacts diplomacy. Most likely, there would a great power war similar to the Crimean War. Eventually the Western powers defeat the Russians since naval power is just too important. It si either transferred to Muhammad Ali or becomes some sort of "free city" or condominium controlled by the great powers.
 
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