British annex the Pearl River Delta in the First Opium War

[Avrorrange]

You're assuming the Pearl River Delta colony would be democratic or remain so. Taiwan's developed a degree of cultural separateness because of isolation, something which this Pearl River Delta colony is unlikely to do for economic reasons, if nothing else.

Umm, Goa pretty much is Indian.

Even if it isn't democratic, it's very unlikely that the political leadership are just gonna sign over their rights. The thing about dictatorships is that people in charge want to be in full control. As the Chinese saying goes, it is better be the head of a chicken than the tail of a phoenix.

Umm, Goa pretty much is Indian.

And was it gonna become Indian without military force?

 

[Pelranius]

Even if it isn't democratic, it's very unlikely that the political leadership are just gonna sign over their rights. The thing about dictatorships is that people in charge want to be in full control. As the Chinese saying goes, it is better be the head of a chicken than the tail of a phoenix.

Ideological dictatorships come to mind (like all those Russian Civil War statelets that got folded back into the USSR).

And was it gonna become Indian without military force?

Even so, what's to save the Pearl River Delta colony from annexation?

 

[Avrorrange]

Ideological dictatorships come to mind (like all those Russian Civil War statelets that got folded back into the USSR).


Even so, what's to save the Pearl River Delta colony from annexation?

That's because the statelets simply do not have the government institutions, military strength or diplomatic/economic relations in place to deter annexation. A potential Pearl River Delta colony, even if it's some sort of dictatorship, will most likely inherit military,government,economic and diplomatic institutions from the British government.Judging from the population of the area and the region's economic potential, it's not going to be weak either.

 

[Pelranius]

That's because the statelets simply do not have the government institutions, military strength or diplomatic/economic relations in place to deter annexation. A potential Pearl River Delta colony, even if it's some sort of dictatorship, will most likely inherit an military,government,economic and diplomatic institutions from the British government.Judging from the population of the area and the region's economic potential, it's not going to be weak either.

And how what will the correlation of forces be between the Pearl River Delta colony and the rest of China? For all we know, the Pearl River Delta colony could be some sort of oligarchy versus a Qing Dynasty constitutional monarchy.

 

[Avrorrange]

And how what will the correlation of forces be between the Pearl River Delta colony and the rest of China? For all we know, the Pearl River Delta colony could be some sort of oligarchy versus a Qing Dynasty constitutional monarchy.

That will depend upon the kind of allies this potential Pearl River Delta state could get, the diplomatic relations of alt-China and the exact relationship between Pearl River Delta state and alt-China. The strength of alt-China is also a factor of course.As far as the rest of the world is concerned though, this Pearl River Delta state is a legitimate sovereign state unlike OTL Taiwan or HK. It wouldn't be as diplomatically isolated as OTL Taiwan or Hong Kong.Assuming that trends are similar to OTL, you might even see US military bases around. Besides all of that,it's very likely that Pearl River Delta would be much more developed than the rest of China due to the stability of British rule.

 

[M79]

As a side effect do we see a lot more Kowloon Walled Cities or Chungking Mansions all over the PRDS (Pearl River Delta State)?

 

[Pelranius]

That will depend upon the kind of allies this potential Pearl River Delta state could get, the diplomatic relations of alt-China and the exact relationship between Pearl River Delta state and alt-China. The strength of alt-China is also a factor of course.As far as the rest of the world is concerned though, this Pearl River Delta state is a legitimate sovereign state unlike OTL Taiwan or HK. It wouldn't be as diplomatically isolated as OTL Taiwan or Hong Kong.Assuming that trends are similar to OTL, you might even see US military bases around. Besides all of that,it's very likely that Pearl River Delta would be much more developed than the rest of China due to the stability of British rule.

So why would British rule be magically more likely to make the Pearl River Delta more developed?

 

[Wolttaire]

well the british otl didn't get the pearl river delta because the chinease offered negoations right before reaching naking which would have cut off the captial from the great canal starving it so perhaps if the empeoar was a little more head strong then in a weaker postion accede to that demand and get the pearl river delta and canton, which would have brought in huge amounts of wealth into china.

 

[htgriffin]

Like it or not, if the Brits/John Company runs things better than the late Qing or Taiping do elsewhere they can hang onto the area for a few decades and even see in-migration (although the sooner legit Home Rule is set up the better for all concerned, and rubbing the "native's" noses in the dirt will get old very fast). The big question is if anything resembling OTL's Warlord Period goes down and at what level responses to facts on the ground get dictated... gobbling the rest of the Chinese Heartland or at least a large chunk of the southern half cannot be ruled out.

Of course the dynamics change a great deal if, instead of direct rule, a more-or-less compliant puppet Emperor (Han by preference, and if christian prone to be both non-heretical and low key about the matter) is enthroned in 'Kuang-chou'. Moreso if the fellow's kids are both bright and on good terms with the local intelligentsia.

 

[Avrorrange]

So why would British rule be magically more likely to make the Pearl River Delta more developed?

Because there won’t be decades of civil war going on at minimum.It would be a safe haven where people could safely trade with China and invest in the region while the rest of the Middle Kingdom goes to hell.Like it or not, China was in all likelihood gonna tank pretty hard.

 

[M79]

A British Canton/Pearl River Delta also gives the population access to a fresh water source and while food would still have to be imported initially some of the outlying islands could potentially be made very productive (as might Hainan). Industry would still be a shortcoming, though tungsten is reportedly in the area and with the whole province more might be found (oil, gas, etc.)