Britain Backs up Czechoslovakia

[ric350]

French F223s bombed Berlin in 1940. No reason they couldn’t do it in late 38 or 39. Not much of a bomb load, but I think Hitler would get the point.

ric350

 

[njslim]

Couple years back in another forum went through scenario where Czechs, getting nervous about Germany, decided to use some of their gold reserves to buy 50 export model P36 (Hawk 75) to beef up air forces . Planes were delivered in summer 1938,just before Munich .

 

[Ambusher11]

It's hard to see how a German army with next to no combat experience (the condor legion is still in Spain) and almost nothing better than a Panzer 2 will get the chance to develop tactics that OTL weren't developed until after victory in Poland had shown limitations in the previous approach
Shorn of winning tactics, any fight will reveal that in 1938/early 1939 French equipment is very good in comparison to most German equipment. While the long-standing commitment to fast-paced actions and local initiative will help against sedate and unimaginative French tactics in the Saar, whether still fighting or worn down by recent fighting, the German forces will have all sorts of problems they didn't have in late 1939.

Would the French really launch a major offensive against Germany in 1938 if the war started in that year? Really doubt it unless the Czechs manage to hold out for more than a month.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

Well they did in September 1939, so it's quite credible that they would earlier on when the German defences were less complete and when the German forces hadn't been bolstered by the Czech equipment.
It is quite possible that ITTL any attack would also be a half baked effort, and the S-mines that helped deter the French attacks would likely have had the same effect as OTL, but then again, there would be no defeatism resulting from the Czech betrayal, and while the German armour and aircraft could be directed west as soon as the Czechs had been defeated, it may take longer than 6 weeks and - due to lack of good modern armour and hard fighting this should be perceived as less of a threat than in OTL
OTL, the impact on the Germans was reduced by rapid progress in Poland and by the knowledge that the Soviets were about to intervene. ITTL, neither of these apply, so even a weak French foothold is a greater threat.

 

[arrestedcorn]

It's hard to see how a German army with next to no combat experience (the condor legion is still in Spain) and almost nothing better than a Panzer 2 will get the chance to develop tactics that OTL weren't developed until after victory in Poland had shown limitations in the previous approach
Shorn of winning tactics, any fight will reveal that in 1938/early 1939 French equipment is very good in comparison to most German equipment. While the long-standing commitment to fast-paced actions and local initiative will help against sedate and unimaginative French tactics in the Saar, whether still fighting or worn down by recent fighting, the German forces will have all sorts of problems they didn't have in late 1939.

So you say they'd do even worse than what I claimed?

 

[CaptainCalvert]

So you say they'd do even worse than what I claimed?

I see the Germans making rapid military progress between OTL Czech takeover and the attack on Poland, but the French were largely stagnant in that time.
So although the French are no better militarily, the German army is much weaker for a whole range of reasons (including the ones outlined above). That doesn't matter militarily if the French do no more than OTL.
However, I'm picking that politically the French might be a bit more positive, so there's a small chance that they press a bit harder and find the opposition isn't up to much. Also because the Germans are in a militarily weaker position, even an OTL-level token incursion is more worrying for them, so they might feel forced to respond which is a distraction from the Czech invasion.
So it should be worse for Germany than OTL.

 

[Ramontxo]

France doesn’t have the political will and Britain doesn’t have the means.

You get a Phony War that starts in 1938 instead of 39.

Yes but with the Chezkoslovaquian army of one million men and 33 divisions on your side.

 

[The Wooksta!]

One other point - where is Hitler's fuel coming from?

 

[Alex Zetsu]

I see the Germans making rapid military progress between OTL Czech takeover and the attack on Poland, but the French were largely stagnant in that time.
So although the French are no better militarily, the German army is much weaker for a whole range of reasons (including the ones outlined above). That doesn't matter militarily if the French do no more than OTL.
However, I'm picking that politically the French might be a bit more positive, so there's a small chance that they press a bit harder and find the opposition isn't up to much. Also because the Germans are in a militarily weaker position, even an OTL-level token incursion is more worrying for them, so they might feel forced to respond which is a distraction from the Czech invasion.
So it should be worse for Germany than OTL.

I stated in the OP the French really didn't do much after declaring war, however I am willing to entertain ideas similar to OTL-level token incursions. Obviously with the full might of the British, French, Czech, and Polish (remember Poland promised France that if France declared war on Germany over Czechoslovakia then so would they even though the Polish-Czechoslovakian relationships were not good), Germany would stand no chance even if Hitler didn't need to purge the Heer.

However, I was thinking of Britain fully backing Czechoslovakia and France kind of half doing it. It's obvious even this is worse for Germany than OTL. OTL level incursions do count as a token attempt, so i guess that's within the scope of the discussion.

Even this might be enough for Hitler's generals to decide he was nuts.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

This is a slight tangent but...

On September 16, 1938 didn't Chamberlin's cabinet mostly favor backing Czechoslovakia? And wasn't there some public support for them too? Granted unlike in my OP, in OTL the public of all the parties had assumed Britian and France were on the same page while in TTL Britain fully backs the Czechs and France doesn't do more than a token incursion. I really don't know why Chamberlin didn't just trust his cabinet.

 

[Vabasion]

Germany would still take Czechs with ease. Once they had Austria none of those defenses Czechs made mattered. If war happened the Suddeten Germans would revolt and sabotage the war effort. The German army would strike from Austria into the Czech heartland. The Poles hated the Czechs and if there is an actual war going on they’d sit it out. They’d definitely not make the same promise to France. French army sits behind Maginot, BEF is able to expand a bit faster and is deployed to France then sits there for a while. British air force at the time has a dozen modern Monoplanes so good luck fighting Luftwaffe with that. Germans have less armor due to not capturing the Czech equipment. Czechia is more damaged due to bombing campaign by Luftwaffe. Slovaks rebel.

Hate him as you like Chamberlain had to make the choice he did at the time.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

The Poles hated the Czechs and if there is an actual war going on they’d sit it out.

They might have hated the Czechs, but they liked the French and in OTL they told the French that if the French declared war on Germany, even over the Cezchs, they'd also declare war.

 

[Vabasion]

They might have hated the Czechs, but they liked the French and in OTL they told the French that if the French declared war on Germany, even over the Cezchs, they'd also declare war.

They liked the French but not enough to declare war over Czechs when it doesn’t concern them. They made said statement knowing fully French won’t do a thing.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

They liked the French but not enough to declare war over Czechs when it doesn’t concern them. They made said statement knowing fully French won’t do a thing.

Even so, in the unlikely event that the French did act, they would at least have to avoid looking like they were being obstructive

 

[skarosianlifeform]

One other point - where is Hitler's fuel coming from?

Indeed, at this point, there's no Soviet-German cooperation, nor German-Romanian cooperation (Soviets have a cooperation treaty with both Czechslovakia and France, while Romania is still part of the Little Entente), and additionally, there is no physical way for Germans to receive oil overland from Soviet Union or Romania (with Czechslovakia / Poland / Baltic countries being in the way).
The other country that provided oil to Germany (in peacetime) was the USA, and well, not happening either with the RN/MN blockade.

The only way for Germans to get oil would be to get it delivered by sea in Dutch, Belgian or Italian ports, which will be highly expensive and limited (because the number of available tankers, and capacity of Dutch, Belgian or Italian ports, has its limits). Meanwhile, France and the UK will have unlimited oil reserves, and so will Czechslovakia thanks to Romania...
Or to produce synthetic oil, but in OTL 1939, only 9 million barrels of synthetic oil were produced ( https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1020261.pdf ). It would rise to 42 million later, but only in 1943. So in 1938, the amount must have been even lower than 9 million barrels.

Actually, just the oil question would likely be enough to screw Germany, on its own...

As if it wasn't enough, Germany also would have a scarcity of several strategic materials.
IOTL, during the 1930s (and the war), Nazis relied on importations of raw resources (such as bauxite, chromium, copper and lead) from the Balkan countries (and Turkey, through the Balkans). In peacetime, they also bought from South Africa.
In addition, in 1939-41, they got massive shipments of manganese, cotton, phosphates, iron ore, platinum, pig iron, chrome ore, cotton and food from Soviet Union.
With the occupation of France, they got wolfram from Spain and Portugal overland.

Here, most of those sources will not exist.
Soviet Union, South Africa and Romania won't be delivering anything.
Spain is still in civil war, and even if/when Franco wins, only way to ship wolfram from Spain (or Portugal, through Spain) would be through the Med and Italian ports, so again, impractical and expensive.
Yugoslavia, Greece and Turkey will be under pressure (from UK, France, and the Little Entente) to not deliver anything to Germany. If they remain at peace, Yugoslavs might have to make a compromise because embargoing Germany would hurt sectors of their economy and cause discontent in an already unstable country, and for fear of a German invasion, but Greeks and Turks likely are either embargoing Germany or raising their prices substantially). Of course, if Yugoslavs choose to honor the Little Entente by declaring war, the point is moot.
Likewise, Poland could either declare war on Germany reluctantly (bound by the public promise made to France)... or remain neutral, and in this case, probably keep trading with Germany (but with raised prices)

Overall, Germany will quickly develop crippling shortages of most strategic metals (in addition to oil).

 

[CaptainCalvert]

Oil shortages won't matter quite as much at a time when Germany has fewer motorised and armoured divisions, and while the Luftwaffe was still growing.
It would be 1940 before highly mobile warfare was mastered. Before then a reduced supply would probably be a (big) nuisance but not in the way that a shortage in 1940 would be.

 

[DDM]

Even so, in the unlikely event that the French did act, they would at least have to avoid looking like they were being obstructive

Additionally promises can be made if the Poles take Danzig and the corridor they can keep them. That would motivate them.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

Oil shortages won't matter quite as much at a time when Germany has fewer motorised and armoured divisions, and while the Luftwaffe was still growing.
It would be 1940 before highly mobile warfare was mastered. Before then a reduced supply would probably be a (big) nuisance but not in the way that a shortage in 1940 would be.

So at the very least, oil shortages will ensure that German divisions have limited mobility, and can't pull Blitzkriegs over long distances (such as invading Belgium and France all the way to Bordeaux...)
Strategic metal shortages would still cripple Germany at some point, though (although the details can be endlessly debated)

 

[Post]

So at the very least, oil shortages will ensure that German divisions have limited mobility, and can't pull Blitzkriegs over long distances (such as invading Belgium and France all the way to Bordeaux...)
Strategic metal shortages would still cripple Germany at some point, though (although the details can be endlessly debated)

In OTL they had issues with getting the fuel to front, the panzer divisions regularly filled up at gasstations along the road.

 

[KACKO]

Germany would still take Czechs with ease. Once they had Austria none of those defenses Czechs made mattered. If war happened the Suddeten Germans would revolt and sabotage the war effort. The German army would strike from Austria into the Czech heartland. The Poles hated the Czechs and if there is an actual war going on they’d sit it out. They’d definitely not make the same promise to France. French army sits behind Maginot, BEF is able to expand a bit faster and is deployed to France then sits there for a while. British air force at the time has a dozen modern Monoplanes so good luck fighting Luftwaffe with that. Germans have less armor due to not capturing the Czech equipment. Czechia is more damaged due to bombing campaign by Luftwaffe. Slovaks rebel.

Hate him as you like Chamberlain had to make the choice he did at the time.

Why would Slovaks rebel? Slovaks mobilized at 1938 without problem and even Hlinka at that time if I remember correctly basically backed Czechoslovakia.
I read memories of one Hlinka’s Guard member. Just short article where he was saying he cried when he was taking off Czechoslovak uniform after Munich.
Sure Germans would find some collaborators on territories of Slovakia which they would occupy but that would be later on, if at all.
B-534 would have problems agains Luftwaffe on other side some articles I read said Germans had lubricants and ammo for 1 month of intensive action. And of course it was late October, weather sucks over the mountains. How effective Luftwaffe would be? Czechoslovak Air Force was already dispersed to field airfields so can’t even be destroyed in one surprise attack.
Slovaks managed to use S-328 in 1944 against Germans and S-328 scored last recorded biplane victory at war.