Blair assassinated in 1999.

[Derek Pullem]

IOTL France and Germany were strongly against a ground intervention. There isn't really any comeback on Serbia over and above what was already going on - NATO had declared de facto war on Yugoslavia already. Yugoslavia will have targeted a combatant (as political leader of enemy nation I can't see how you can claim Blair to be anything other than a legitimate target) on neutral territory which is not following rules of war but hey ho, if you're fighting NATO what's Macedonia on top of that?

Killing Blair probably gives US (and UK) a free pass to do what they were considering at the end of the bombing campaign - a land intervention in Kosovo and probably regime change in Serbia.

Russia is not in a position to intervene and besides they were just about to be involved in another round of Chechen fighting.

 

[GeorgeUK]

Let's not forget that relations with Russia were still apparently fairly cordial at this point and Blair reportedly got on fairly well with Putin. Russia would most likely make a vague, half-hearted token statement about imperialism and move on.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Russia would be pissed but Yeltsin was still officially in charge. Putin was only appointed PM later in 1999 and Acting President in 2000.

Might actually precipitate Yeltsin's retirement earlier.

 

[Zach Rowe]

Maggie Thatcher seizes power & becomes dictator, proceeds to privatize everything.

 

[Ricardolindo]

IOTL France and Germany were strongly against a ground intervention. There isn't really any comeback on Serbia over and above what was already going on - NATO had declared de facto war on Yugoslavia already. Yugoslavia will have targeted a combatant (as political leader of enemy nation I can't see how you can claim Blair to be anything other than a legitimate target) on neutral territory which is not following rules of war but hey ho, if you're fighting NATO what's Macedonia on top of that?

Killing Blair probably gives US (and UK) a free pass to do what they were considering at the end of the bombing campaign - a land intervention in Kosovo and probably regime change in Serbia.

Russia is not in a position to intervene and besides they were just about to be involved in another round of Chechen fighting.

France and Germany would definitely support a ground intervention if Milosevic was stupid enough to kill Blair.

 

[RepMR]

John Prescott assumes command at the head of an emergency, temporary government, possibly triggering a succession crisis with Gordon Brown

 

[SadSprinter]

I know that the murder of the BBC Presenter Jane Dando raised the possibly that she was killed out of revenge by Serbs. So if Tony Blair was killed then expect to see a kind of Serbian paranoia and a long state of on and off again conflict in the Balkans.

 

[Mort the Reaper]

I think it might butterfly 9/11, since Western countries would want to update security measures to keep something like this from happening again.

 

[broken-arrow]

I have no doubt that a NATO intervention would occur due to the assassination of a head of state. But how long would NATO ground forces stay for to stabilise the region? Also, to take the JFK analogy further would Brown, I expect him to become leader eventually after the initial crisis wears off, become almost the British LBJ? Carrying the torch of a widely popular young charismatic leader cut down in their prime and using his image to push through domestic reforms? But then depending on the occupation length being bogged down in a foreign war? Now I know Serbia isn’t Vietnam and I don’t expect NATO to experience the same level of commitment as Viam eg no draft but could it put a serious mark on brown premiership?.

 

[Byzantion]

I have no doubt that a NATO intervention would occur due to the assassination of a head of state. But how long would NATO ground forces stay for to stabilise the region? Also, to take the JFK analogy further would Brown, I expect him to become leader eventually after the initial crisis wears off, become almost the British LBJ? Carrying the torch of a widely popular young charismatic leader cut down in their prime and using his image to push through domestic reforms? But then depending on the occupation length being bogged down in a foreign war? Now I know Serbia isn’t Vietnam and I don’t expect NATO to experience the same level of commitment as Viam eg no draft but could it put a serious mark on brown premiership?.

Woold only Kosovo be secured or would the Allies push for Belgrad ? Montenegro had beendet still a Yugoslav Republic and also targeted, how would the Situation develope ?