Bismarckian diplomacy 1900 to 1914

Possibly, but provided FF is subtle and tactful, he can undo Hungary's power within the Dual Monarchy by whipping up the Slovaks, Romanians, and Slavs in Hungarian territories, the Hungarian nobility would be incredibly weakened. An armed conflict is likely, but if Hungary is divided and falling apart at the seams, it will be swift and decisive.

Austria's collapse is not optimal for the Germans. Disputes will erupt over who gets what part of the carcass, and even worse, Germany will have nearly doubled the potential frontline shared with Russia.
Unfortunately FF is the exact opposite of tactful or subtle. And Austria cloapsing isn't adile but neither was ww1.
Can't Germany just guarantee Austria's 1878 boundaries and no more while trying to have as decent equitable relations with everyone else as they can, (especially Russia).

Caprivi's 1890 agreement post Bismarck was good diplomacy, Germany got the strongest naval power to agree to permanent colonial boundaries, and got Heligoland which German possession of makes a close French blockade impossible. Later on German diplomacy was a lot of noise and threats for little gained.

Regardless all Germany has to do is in July 1914 propose to Britain a European conference over Serbia, no war happens, and by 1917 people would have forgot German's annoying behavior earlier as Britain starts to worry about Russia's growing to superpower strength than anything else.
Dosnt deal with the main issues wich is the balkens and how anything that happens there directly blows back into both Austria and russia.
 
Not even God in heaven could have made Britain and Germany not be rivals. Unless Wilhelms crawl on naked knees trough broken glass to shut down every factory in Germany, personally kneecap every German merchant selling products outside Britain will hate them. I don’t understand this obsession with belief that it was the large fleet that caused the rivalry. Fleet was a threat. Rivalry came with or without it as Germany became the premier industrial power of Europe
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
Not even God in heaven could have made Britain and Germany not be rivals. Unless Wilhelms crawl on naked knees trough broken glass to shut down every factory in Germany, personally kneecap every German merchant selling products outside Britain will hate them. I don’t understand this obsession with belief that it was the large fleet that caused the rivalry. Fleet was a threat. Rivalry came with or without it as Germany became the premier industrial power of Europe
During that period of the 20th Century when the USA and Britain looked to be engaging in a serious naval arms race, a senior USN officer (can't recall whom) pointed out that Britain had cut down on the sea all those who threatened their primacy in world trade: the Spanish; the Dutch; the French; the Germans - the inference being the USA might be next. It was inevitable that Britain would see Germany as a commercial & industrial rival, the naval arms war was just the most obvious adjunct.
 

kham_coc

Banned
Not even God in heaven could have made Britain and Germany not be rivals. Unless Wilhelms crawl on naked knees trough broken glass to shut down every factory in Germany, personally kneecap every German merchant selling products outside Britain will hate them. I don’t understand this obsession with belief that it was the large fleet that caused the rivalry. Fleet was a threat. Rivalry came with or without it as Germany became the premier industrial power of Europe
The UK would never be lovely friends with Germany, but a policy could have been pursued that kept Russia as the top target for British paranoia.
 
Dosnt deal with the main issues wich is the balkens and how anything that happens there directly blows back into both Austria and russia.

How about Russia just wins in the Balkans. Russia winning annoys Britain. Germany doesn't have to backup Austria in 1908, It can go to a conference, Serbia can get a strip of land across the Novi Pazar (it got it anyway later).

If Russia and Germany are friendlier not much the Austrians can do but just accept there are limitations on their friendship with Germany.
 
During that period of the 20th Century when the USA and Britain looked to be engaging in a serious naval arms race, a senior USN officer (can't recall whom) pointed out that Britain had cut down on the sea all those who threatened their primacy in world trade: the Spanish; the Dutch; the French; the Germans - the inference being the USA might be next. It was inevitable that Britain would see Germany as a commercial & industrial rival, the naval arms war was just the most obvious adjunct.
It would have been true had Britain not crippled itself trough horrible losses, war weariness, huge debt and economic downturn thanks to fighting Germany. If the war was easier, quicker or cheaper there’s little doubt US and Britain would come to blows over one thing or another.

The UK would never be lovely friends with Germany, but a policy could have been pursued that kept Russia as the top target for British paranoia.
Only if German economy is not competing with Britain. Fleet or not, size and what not doesn’t matter. Germany threatened British income trough its industry and economy and had to be dealt with.
 
So, how would the history of Europe change if Bismarck had chosen Russia over A-H?
I would assume this choosing Russia starts with 1878 crisis. Perhaps Bismarck instead of a conference, proposes that "greater" Bulgaria be shrunk a bit to take it of the Mediterranean, and to take less of Macedonia to make it more palatable to England and Serbia . Bosnia gets autonomy but not Austrian occupation.

Wikipedia:
According to British historian A. J. P. Taylor, writing in 1954,

"If the treaty of San Stefano had been maintained, both the Ottoman Empire and Austria-Hungary might have survived to the present day. Salisbury wrote at the end of 1878 'We shall set up a rickety sort of Turkish rule again south of the Balkans. But it is a mere respite. There is no vitality left in them.'"[10]

Austria has no choice really to be a third wheel in this German Russian friendship, Germany is guaranteeing Austria's 1878 boundaries and no more.

More stuff may happen in the Balkans, but Austria (and thus Germany) aren't a part of it in a major way. Germany is happy Russia is focusing on places where it will come into conflict with Britain and Japan.
 
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A different way might be,
Try to steer Russia towards Asia.
Support France in her colonial endeavours.
Probably one of the best idea !

To add to it:
-Helping Russia win the Russo-Japanese war could have kept Moscow's eyes on Manchuria (either with ships and/or supplies)

-Make the Fashoda incident blow up and play the arbitrator. Try to discreetly favor the French so them and Britain stay at odds. Don't put your hands in Morroco, leave it to the French.
 
How can Germany employ bismarckian diplomacy during this period to
1 avoid conflict /rivalry with Britain
2 Isolate France militarily
3 keep relations with russia cordial
4 make the colonial powers keep fighting with each other in asia and africa
Keep treaty of alliance that it had in the OTL.
To avoid conflict with Britain it should have announced in 1900 that it will voluntary keep its naval size at or under 75% if British naval size. It should not invade Belgium during the war. It should support other monarchies and royalist movements. This means helping the Portuguese monarchy survive. It should help restore the Brazilian monarchy. This should be done to show Germany and pro royal. It should stablish closing ties with other kingdoms, such as Portugal, Spain, Brazil, Denmark, Sweden, etc, to isolate France. It should support the Mexican royalist. It should also expel all foreign radicals and republicans. Send Lenin & other anti-tsarist to the Tsar. It should support Russia during the Russo-Japanese War. Act as a go between for Russia and Austro-Hungry. Seek new treaty with Russia and help Russia move east, against Japan and China. Keep small colonies around the world.

When war breaks out, work with Austro-Hungry to try to limit action against Russia. Seek a ceasefire on the Eastern front as soon as possible. Use relationship with Russian to convince them that Serbia is not worth a major war. If a Christmas type truce happens on the Western front use it to end the war or to make France look like warmongers. Use propoganda against Italy when they betray the Central powers.
 
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Probably one of the best idea !

To add to it:
-Helping Russia win the Russo-Japanese war could have kept Moscow's eyes on Manchuria (either with ships and/or supplies)

-Make the Fashoda incident blow up and play the arbitrator. Try to discreetly favor the French so them and Britain stay at odds. Don't put your hands in Morroco, leave it to the French.
Unfortunately there really isn't much Germany can do to help russia out in the russo-japanes war. Germany can't let Russia use it chines naval base because Japan well use it as a declaration of war automatically calling britan into it.
 
It would have been true had Britain not crippled itself trough horrible losses, war weariness, huge debt and economic downturn thanks to fighting Germany. If the war was easier, quicker or cheaper there’s little doubt US and Britain would come to blows over one thing or another.
Yeah, I don't see the British winning that short of ASB. They'd strike painful blows, defeating the USN - at first - in the open waters of the North Atlantic, maybe pinprick strikes like bombarding Boston and/or New York, or even invading the Philippines, but all that would succeed in doing is make the USA see red. Within 2 years, tops, the Americans would simply stomp Canada flat after seizing the Caribbean, and in another two years, grind the Royal Navy to paste after building up a 3 or even 5:1 numerical advantage in battleships alone.

And the best part is the British would know this. Ever since the Civil War, it was pretty much recognized that they couldn't win a direct confrontation with the USA. America's population, resources, and sheer industrial power was simply that overwhelming even at the turn of the 20th Century. The British would make all sorts of concessions to make an accommodation with the USA before it got to that point.
 
Yeah, I don't see the British winning that short of ASB. They'd strike painful blows, defeating the USN - at first - in the open waters of the North Atlantic, maybe pinprick strikes like bombarding Boston and/or New York, or even invading the Philippines, but all that would succeed in doing is make the USA see red. Within 2 years, tops, the Americans would simply stomp Canada flat after seizing the Caribbean, and in another two years, grind the Royal Navy to paste after building up a 3 or even 5:1 numerical advantage in battleships alone.

And the best part is the British would know this. Ever since the Civil War, it was pretty much recognized that they couldn't win a direct confrontation with the USA. America's population, resources, and sheer industrial power was simply that overwhelming even at the turn of the 20th Century. The British would make all sorts of concessions to make an accommodation with the USA before it got to that point.
I never said they’d conquer America. Merely that an Imperialist Britain that didn’t suffer the products of the Great War would have been far more confrontation in their dealings with US. Even as allies that fought together, and collapses that followed WW1 a lot in the US saw Britain as the greatest threat.

Britain without WW1 keeps the alliance with Japan. It never signs naval treaties. It never accepts US fleet parity. It will definitely act aggressively to prevent said parity. Which could lead to war.
US is massive and industrial but their military is anemic, weaker than Belgian one spread over far greater area. Britain could try to rush while US trains. Japan will definitely jump in on it. US fleet would probably lose or be forced to stay in port. Japan and Britain take Philippines and pacific islands. They definitely she’ll and bombard major cities on eastern seaboard. Gonna be a while before US can push into Canada. Time enough for commonwealth troops to pile on in. It’s probably a negotiated peace.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
I never said they’d conquer America. Merely that an Imperialist Britain that didn’t suffer the products of the Great War would have been far more confrontation in their dealings with US. Even as allies that fought together, and collapses that followed WW1 a lot in the US saw Britain as the greatest threat.

Britain without WW1 keeps the alliance with Japan. It never signs naval treaties. It never accepts US fleet parity. It will definitely act aggressively to prevent said parity. Which could lead to war.
US is massive and industrial but their military is anemic, weaker than Belgian one spread over far greater area. Britain could try to rush while US trains. Japan will definitely jump in on it. US fleet would probably lose or be forced to stay in port. Japan and Britain take Philippines and pacific islands. They definitely she’ll and bombard major cities on eastern seaboard. Gonna be a while before US can push into Canada. Time enough for commonwealth troops to pile on in. It’s probably a negotiated peace.
By the 1890s the British Foreign Office had decided to never, ever, get on the bad side of the USA.

It would take either a British leader of stunning incompetence (let's call him Boris) or a rabid Anglophobe in the White House (let's call him Don- no, don't go there) for the British Govt (not the RN) to actually commit to a ruinously expensive naval arms race, having just finished one with George's cousin.
 

kham_coc

Banned
By the 1890s the British Foreign Office had decided to never, ever, get on the bad side of the USA.

Yet it did so many times - its entirely plausible that a different president than Wilson puts its foot down regarding the illegal blockade.
He did so regarding cotton for example, on behalf of southern interests.
What does the uk do then? Effectively drop the blockade, or tell the US to take a hike?

And then there is of course the times where the UK simply do not understand the us an its interest - The present issues with NI should be a good example (though we can't go there).

Finally there is always Japan.
 

marathag

Banned
Britain without WW1 keeps the alliance with Japan. It never signs naval treaties. It never accepts US fleet parity. It
USA can afford to outbuild both, given the reason.
Japan, with near zero losses from WWI, could not afford a Building Race.
Given reason, the USN could have spammed out South Dakota BBs like they did 20 years later with the Essex
 
By the 1890s the British Foreign Office had decided to never, ever, get on the bad side of the USA.

It would take either a British leader of stunning incompetence (let's call him Boris) or a rabid Anglophobe in the White House (let's call him Don- no, don't go there) for the British Govt (not the RN) to actually commit to a ruinously expensive naval arms race, having just finished one with George's cousin.
What Arms race with George’s cousin? We’re talking about Briton that never went trough the world war.

USA can afford to outbuild both, given the reason.
Japan, with near zero losses from WWI, could not afford a Building Race.
Given reason, the USN could have spammed out South Dakota BBs like they did 20 years later with the Essex
US is behind in quantity and quality. Far behind GB prior to WW1 and definitely would be the same if Britain never took part in said war. This isn’t Germany US is fighting where they can just whistle and build away until they are ready. 14+ inch shells will rain on New York, Newport and other places. Good luck building a ship under naval fire, blockade and possible invasions all while trying to build a navy and army at the same time.
 
What Arms race with George’s cousin? We’re talking about Briton that never went trough the world war.


US is behind in quantity and quality. Far behind GB prior to WW1 and definitely would be the same if Britain never took part in said war. This isn’t Germany US is fighting where they can just whistle and build away until they are ready. 14+ inch shells will rain on New York, Newport and other places. Good luck building a ship under naval fire, blockade and possible invasions all while trying to build a navy and army at the same time.

Because of course the Brits will be able to sail right up to the Naval yards and shell them across open sights. Not like any of these yards have defenses or anything, that'd be cheating! Any fleet attempting to actually sail right up to a critical defensive installation would deserve whatever happens to it, and the commander would be well deserving of his court martial. I'd also expect that using the Fleet to conduct indiscriminate shelling of targets in built up urban areas against fellow white, protestant, English speaking people would face considerable resistance from other members of the British government as well as the public.
 
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marathag

Banned
What Arms race with George’s cousin? We’re talking about Briton that never went trough the world war.


US is behind in quantity and quality. Far behind GB prior to WW1 and definitely would be the same if Britain never took part in said war. This isn’t Germany US is fighting where they can just whistle and build away until they are ready. 14+ inch shells will rain on New York, Newport and other places. Good luck building a ship under naval fire, blockade and possible invasions all while trying to build a navy and army at the same time.
RN steaming right from Halifax to New Jersey, Guns ablazing.
I'm sure it would be a Milk Run, 1814 part 2, right?
It would be one way to find out what the Endicott Board had decided to spend money on.
Hope you like 12" Mortar batteries and Disappearing 10 and 12" guns.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
Yet it did so many times - its entirely plausible that a different president than Wilson puts its foot down regarding the illegal blockade.
He did so regarding cotton for example, on behalf of southern interests.
What does the uk do then? Effectively drop the blockade, or tell the US to take a hike?

And then there is of course the times where the UK simply do not understand the us an its interest - The present issues with NI should be a good example (though we can't go there).

Finally there is always Japan.
Britain would chuck Japan under a bus if the Anglo-Japanese Alliance threatened to drag GB into a US-Japan conflict. The view would be different if a pissed-off USA was avidly proposing war with GB.

Britain would roll over to the USA on anything that didn't affect its vital interests. The blockade obviously fell outside that, and never got to a stage where the US was likely to declare war on the British Empire. As you say, figuring out the ambitions & interests of a different US administration would be key as to how much the RN could push the envelope.

So far, in the last 130 years, Britain hasn't committed anything that would bring a declaration of war from DC, and has had to bend on important - but not vital - interests such as over Suez.
What Arms race with George’s cousin? We’re talking about Briton that never went trough the world war.


US is behind in quantity and quality. Far behind GB prior to WW1 and definitely would be the same if Britain never took part in said war. This isn’t Germany US is fighting where they can just whistle and build away until they are ready. 14+ inch shells will rain on New York, Newport and other places. Good luck building a ship under naval fire, blockade and possible invasions all while trying to build a navy and army at the same time.
OK - I should have pointed out that this was per OTL not ATL. If the naval arms race with Germany did not occur, Britain could afford a different arms race with the USA, but not as far as to overwhelm the USN and cause panic in DC. Would they look to maintain a superiority of numbers, or equality? Or enough to maintain a balance of naval power along with Japan? The latter would be risky as it may encourage Japanese ambitions on the other side of the world.
 
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