Yeah, I don't see the British winning that short of ASB. They'd strike painful blows, defeating the USN - at first - in the open waters of the North Atlantic, maybe pinprick strikes like bombarding Boston and/or New York, or even invading the Philippines, but all that would succeed in doing is make the USA see red. Within 2 years, tops, the Americans would simply stomp Canada flat after seizing the Caribbean, and in another two years, grind the Royal Navy to paste after building up a 3 or even 5:1 numerical advantage in battleships alone.
And the best part is the British would know this. Ever since the Civil War, it was pretty much recognized that they couldn't win a direct confrontation with the USA. America's population, resources, and sheer industrial power was simply that overwhelming even at the turn of the 20th Century. The British would make all sorts of concessions to make an accommodation with the USA before it got to that point.