Bismarckian diplomacy 1900 to 1914
- Thread starter Monk78
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Well the big problem is A-H, you need to make Wien come to term with Petrograd regarding how can they share the balkans otherwise keeping relations cordial with Russia will be difficult and in a minor note if you do that you need also convince Wien regarding how to compensate Italy (otherwise they will leave the CP and allies immediately with France)...or in the worst case choose Petrograd over Wien, sure it will make A-H search an alliance with France (and UK in the worst case scenario) but you can have Russia and keep Italy and probably adding Serbia and Romania, so it's a good trade
Naval and colonial rivalry with Britain could be avoided, but the Franco-Russian Alliance was signed in 1894, so a 1900 POD may be too late.
Germany could maintain good relations with Russia, but it will be hard to dislodge their alliance with France as they had mutually beneficial economic, diplomatic and geostrategic ties.
Austria-Hungary's rivalry with Russia will also make it difficult for Germany to keep cordial relations with St Petersburg.
I could only see Germany preventing or slowing Britain from improving its relations with France and Russia with a 1900 POD. It is too late to dislodge the Franco-Russian Alliance.
Germany could maintain good relations with Russia, but it will be hard to dislodge their alliance with France as they had mutually beneficial economic, diplomatic and geostrategic ties.
Austria-Hungary's rivalry with Russia will also make it difficult for Germany to keep cordial relations with St Petersburg.
I could only see Germany preventing or slowing Britain from improving its relations with France and Russia with a 1900 POD. It is too late to dislodge the Franco-Russian Alliance.
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Any chance of
Italy France war over tunis
British French colonial rivalry calusing a war
Russia Britain war in Central Asia
US or China and japan clash in Far East
3rd boer war
all during 1900 to 1914
Also if it is at all possible that the colonies of the German empire can be used as a trip wire Force Against other countries? E.g using colonies as a base of covert operations against neighboring colonial power and when that power retaliates ask for help from other powers ( in exchange for letting them take over the German colonies )
This way Even though the German overseas colonies will be lost one by one at least have the positive effect of embroiling different European colonial powers in long-term conflict. While Germany and AH consolidate and grow their power in central Europe
Italy France war over tunis
British French colonial rivalry calusing a war
Russia Britain war in Central Asia
US or China and japan clash in Far East
3rd boer war
all during 1900 to 1914
Also if it is at all possible that the colonies of the German empire can be used as a trip wire Force Against other countries? E.g using colonies as a base of covert operations against neighboring colonial power and when that power retaliates ask for help from other powers ( in exchange for letting them take over the German colonies )
This way Even though the German overseas colonies will be lost one by one at least have the positive effect of embroiling different European colonial powers in long-term conflict. While Germany and AH consolidate and grow their power in central Europe
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The below three are all possible, they could have happened in the late 19th century, and still were possible (though less likely) in the early 20th century, in an ATL where Germany pursues better foreign policy and does not drive Britain into the Entente camp.
Both below are also possible, but how is this related to Bismarck-style diplomacy, which is the theme of this thread? Both events are out of the scope of the subject of better German diplomacy. Doubtful that Germany would be able to influence either event.
Both below are also possible, but how is this related to Bismarck-style diplomacy, which is the theme of this thread? Both events are out of the scope of the subject of better German diplomacy. Doubtful that Germany would be able to influence either event.
keep france isolated diplomatically and militarily
and prevent a buildup of an alliance to threaten Germany
what time in late 19th century ?
Ideally right after Willhelm's ascension in 1890, when the Russians offered to renew the re-insurance treaty would be ideal. You would need quite a different mindset for the new kaiser and his advisors (who wanted to move past Bismrack's complicated plans), to be willing to keep-up and strenghten the prevailing doctrine. Next, avoid tryinbg to form a full aliance with Britain. Britain has always been rather uncertain on alliances with unspecified or broad goals (see their quick withdrawal from post-Napoleonic alliances), and were much more interested in limited goals alliances (such as the one with Napoleon III. against Russia during the Crimean war). The Germans should come up with such an proposal with clearly stated goals and provisions (such as: no Anglo-French alliance, British friendly neutrality in Franco-German conflict, German respect for the Benelux neutrality, German navy limitations and so on), instead of Willhelm's vision of a grnad alliance between the two that could dominate the world.
In the Balkans, the Germans will have to find an ideal balance between the Austrians and Russians, with clear division of spheres of influence and so on, having to balance the two states. This was something even Bismarck found difficult and will be the main issue for a Germany that still keeps to his doctrine, so that the Russians don't decide to go running to the French.
So, a much more cunning german leadership is basically required.
1) He’d want to keep a modest Fleet.
2) The entente was already formed by this point.
3) Bismarck would probably want to restrain Austria from being to aggressive in the Balkans.
By actually keeping on doing Bismarckian diplomacy, which I'd say was grounded in realpolitik and thus very far from Tirpitz's dreams of global empire, Wilhelm's sanguine behavior, and generally the newfound pride of a nation that by 1900 had been for a whole generation the major power in continental Europe.
I'd say that most that could be done with a post-1900 POD is a general retreat from Austrian support, grounded on the same understanding of OTL: that support would mean war, sooner rather than later, just with the recognition that conflict only stood to jeopardize Germany's interests - and that Vienna's stubborn position would drive Italy in the opposing camp, so something had to be done.
I'd say that most that could be done with a post-1900 POD is a general retreat from Austrian support, grounded on the same understanding of OTL: that support would mean war, sooner rather than later, just with the recognition that conflict only stood to jeopardize Germany's interests - and that Vienna's stubborn position would drive Italy in the opposing camp, so something had to be done.
Ya, frankly forcing A-H to collapse and alieing russia, Italy, Serbia, and romania is in hindsight the smarter play. Although that wasn't quite as clear back then (manly nobody realised how bad A-H army was)
That...and basically you not only really close a lot of door in term of alliances but bring yourself in the middle of many territorial dispute that have only a limited interest for you
This isn't Bismarckian diplomacy though. Bismarck focused on maintaining the European status quo and having three great powers in an alliance at any given time so as to protect Germany from aggressive wars (the two isolated powers not being strong enough alone). Dismembering Austria does not achieve either of these things. Not to mention absorbing Austrian Germans was not something sensible Hohenzollern Ministers like Bismarck wanted (Bismarck did not unify Germany because he was a German nationalist, but as a tool for Prussian aggrandizement).
And that was different how exactly with Austria? Germany is in the middle of Central Europe its going to be dealing with taratorial disputes nomader what it dose, it can only choose who it supports in those taratorial disputes. Also its alliance with Austria ALSO ended up closing the door to other alliances (even Italy) so I'm not really seeing the down side here.
Thing is I don't think Germany can keep russia and Austria from each others throats indefinitely, russia can always get tired of Germany and switch to France. Germany is going to at some point need to decide between Austria and russia, and russia is simply the better partner. Also a lot had changed in Germany sense Bismark, for example willam with is textbook tack told to Franz Josephs face that he couldn't whate for Austria Hungary to collapse so he could finish german unification, the German elite had become a lot less anti-chathlic (and a lot more antisemitic) by 1900.
Support Austria and you are in the middle of disputes with Romania, Italy and Serbia; get Russia and you can manage Italy and probably include Serbia and maybe keep Romania at least neutral all while your strategic option increase
If Franz Ferdinand survives, things will be a bit better in the East. If all goes well with his proposed reforms regarding the rights and status of the Southern Slavs (perhaps FJ kicks the bucket earlier), he wanted to thaw relations between Russia and Austria. No guarantee this would work, but with Hotzendorf out of the picture (cannot understate how much FF hated him), Austria would be a lot less eager to go to war.
Possibly, but provided FF is subtle and tactful, he can undo Hungary's power within the Dual Monarchy by whipping up the Slovaks, Romanians, and Slavs in Hungarian territories, the Hungarian nobility would be incredibly weakened. An armed conflict is likely, but if Hungary is divided and falling apart at the seams, it will be swift and decisive.
Austria's collapse is not optimal for the Germans. Disputes will erupt over who gets what part of the carcass, and even worse, Germany will have nearly doubled the potential frontline shared with Russia.
Can't Germany just guarantee Austria's 1878 boundaries and no more while trying to have as decent equitable relations with everyone else as they can, (especially Russia).
Caprivi's 1890 agreement post Bismarck was good diplomacy, Germany got the strongest naval power to agree to permanent colonial boundaries, and got Heligoland which German possession of makes a close French blockade impossible. Later on German diplomacy was a lot of noise and threats for little gained.
Regardless all Germany has to do is in July 1914 propose to Britain a European conference over Serbia, no war happens, and by 1917 people would have forgot German's annoying behavior earlier as Britain starts to worry about Russia's growing to superpower strength than anything else.