Bismarck, Moltke, Wilhelm I. died at Königgsgrätz
- Thread starter Byzantion
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Well, that would be the question. It could have serious consequences if the leading figures die , although the Prussians seem to have the edge.
MagicalRabbit
Banned
Wasn't Moltke the Elder the big military decision-maker for Prussia at this battle, though?
Yes, I thought of mention him , too. He would have been near Bismarck during the battle and discussing the events (It is shown in paintings of the battle) Maybe he dies, too ?
MagicalRabbit
Banned
Does Moltke die in the middle of this battle or near the end of this battle, though?
Also, though, if both Bismarck and Wilhelm I die but Moltke survives, then Prussia probably still wins both the Austro-Prussian War and the Franco-Prussian War. After all, as far as I know, Kaiser Friederich III would have been supportive of the idea of German unification just like his father Kaiser Wilhelm I was. However, in this TL, maybe, just maybe Prussia decides not to annex Alsace-Lorraine after its victory in the Franco-Prussian War and instead decides to make Alsace-Lorraine a permanently demilitarized part of France.
If Moltke also dies during this battle, though, then I am honestly less sure about what exactly happens afterwards.
Istr that Wawro's Austro-Prussian War mentions an Austrian shell exploding only a few feet from where the King, Bismarck and Moltke were gathered together. Not sure exactly when, but str that it was well before the Crown Prince came up and decided the outcome.
As the Kronprinz (now King) isn't on the spot, command would probably devolve on Prince Frederick Charles. I gather he was no great shakes as a general. If he decides to retreat (something Wilhelm talked about at one point, but was dissuaded by Moltke) then Prussia probably loses th battle, and most likely the war with it.
Which means that Prussia will not be able to make its move to become the main German power let alone unifier of the German Empire and superpower of Middle Europe. The Dualism betweeen Austria and Prussia might continue-both exhausted. France has bought time in such scenario.
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Hanover and some other states such as the duchy of Nassau won't be annexed by Prussia ITTL, but a Prussiam led federation might still arise. In fact IMHO by this point any Germany will be federal.
The North-German-Bund existed and the Zollverein. But would the original German Bund be restablished or would the war enemies of Prussia like Saxony, Hessen-Kassel, Hanover etc. still stay outside the Bund ? Also would we see a Austro-Hungarian k.u.k monarchy like in OTL 1867 or would Austria simply stay the Austrian Empire ?
If anything I would see Prussia being forced back a rather large step - Koniggsgratz was a very close run thing and if the Prussians retreat they're IIRC withdrawing through a fairly narrow pass and then territory that they had already picked clean of supplies traveling to the battlefield. It was one of those occasions where whichever side won was going to win big. I seem to recall that Prussia had denounced the German Confederation and possibly even resigned from it at the start of the war, at the very least they've broken a number of major rules with regards to warfare between member states so I'd expect Austria to push for their expulsion or a decently lengthy suspension.
LordKalvert
Banned
The effects here will be limited only by Franco-Russian intervention (or at least the threat of it) but guessing as to the terms that Austria would impose-
1) The Prussian annexations would obviously not occur
2) Prussia is going to lose something. Saxony is likely to be restored to its Pre-Napoleonic War territories
3) Italy- probably the restoration of the 1859 border
This would lead to
No Franco-Prussian War- German economic development retarded due to lack of the indemnity
Papal States remain under the Popes control and no Italian unification
1) The Prussian annexations would obviously not occur
2) Prussia is going to lose something. Saxony is likely to be restored to its Pre-Napoleonic War territories
3) Italy- probably the restoration of the 1859 border
This would lead to
No Franco-Prussian War- German economic development retarded due to lack of the indemnity
Papal States remain under the Popes control and no Italian unification
Austria is basically weak. if it wins, it can impose only modest terms: Restoration of the Confederation, Schleswig-Holstein to the Duke of Augustenburg. It still cedes Venetia as that was the deal, win or lose. There still has to be a deal with Hungary. In Germany there will be another (probably successful) stab at a conservative reformation of the Confederation. If not there will be a radicalization of the German unification movement imbued with republicanism or even socialism.
There was also the concept of regaining Silesia and then giving Venetia to Italy as payment for French support/neutrality.
France would like Prussia to lose the Rhine Province and Westphalia, for military reasons. If the westernmost garrison of Prussia is Magdeburg, that immensely widens France's options. The only power in central Europe that could replace Prussia along the Rhine and be as powerful would be Austria.
I don't remember any Austrian politician arguing for the annexation of the Rhenish, Silesian and Westphalian territories. OTOH, that would mean nine million more subjects, most of them Germans, and the majority of the catholics. That's a huge shift in relative power among the nations of Europe.
More likely, since Austrian politicians in 1866 seemed really indifferent reagrding the idea of a united Germany: Austria takes Silesia, Saxony takes its 1815 area back, France takes the Saar area, possibly the other German kingdoms take bits and pieces as well. Bavaria along Nahe and maybe Mosel, Hannover along the Weser. Perhaps some prince can be found as new Grand Duke of the Rhine.
If Prussia has just been given a very public thumping then it does also rather undercut the justification used for giving them what became the Rhine and Westphalia provinces i.e. establishing a strong barrier along the border to ward off potential future French expansionism. One of the usual suggestions in threads like these is that if the Austrians are able to win the war is to annex them, split off Julich-Cleves-Berg from the Rhine province, and use them to compensate the Habsburg rulers that lost their Italian states in the recent past. Weakens Prussia, doesn't directly strengthen Austria to avoid making people nervous, still warns France off since Austria is more than likely to aid related rulers in the Confederation.
Assuming they have the position to push it through reverse annexations seem likely. Hanover was surrounded by several states that they probably wouldn't mind gobbling up - Lippe, Bremen, Hamburg, Brunswick which they were already slated to inherit, sliver of Westphalia north-east of the river Ems perhaps. Oldenburg is tempting but their links with Russia could make that difficult. One possible solution I had was to have them swap it for Holstein and the southern half of Schleswig, no idea whether that would fly though. Saxony regaining its pre-Napoleonic Wars borders as already mentioned seems likely.
IIRC they'd already arranged to transfer it in return for France's promise of neutrality during the war. Would the Austrians consider it worth it to renege on the deal with all of the accompanying bad blood to retain a restive province rather than having more of a free hand to cut Prussia down to size in Germany?
They don't even need to take all of it, IIRC most of the natural resources were located in Upper (southern) Silesia so they could be 'magnanimous' and only reclaim half of the province. If Prussia loses this and the Ruhr region by being rolled back to eastern Germany it puts a large crimp in their industrial development.
Well if Austria has already agreed to transfer Venetia to France (and thus indirectly Italy), then Silesia could be compensation (so no real gain) and be sold as such. The Rhine provinces could be a welcome expansion of the German element in Austria.
That might allow a different 'Ausgleich', one between Hungary, Bohemia, Croatia and Austria & the German Lands.
That might allow a different 'Ausgleich', one between Hungary, Bohemia, Croatia and Austria & the German Lands.
I'd have thought the middling states were more likely to be compensated with modest amounts of Prussian territory. Except for Saxony, Franz Joseph doesn't really owe them much.
Austria would probably leave the mini-states in existence, but use the threat (overt or implied) of letting them be divvied up among their neighbours as a way of ensuring that they "made themselves useful" by always voting with Austria in the Federal Diet. Iirc, in OTL's Second Reich the small fry typically voted in the Prussian interest, probably for a similar reason.
Also (see map at http://germanhistorydocs.ghi-dc.org/sub_image.cfm?image_id=1339 ) Upper Silesia was heavily Catholic, so a boundary along roughly confessional lines would assign most of the natural resources to Austria.
From the map, it looks as if most of Prussia's Rhenish subjects would also have been happier under a Catholic ruler.