My only question: is it any good?
Probably a little better, -33 is pretty uniquely bad
Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond
- Thread starter KingSweden24
- Start date
So I guess Carey’s lead is probably in the mid-late 2s. Clinton won by 9 points in 96 and A lot of the states he lost were by thin narrow margins. Nixon destroyed McGovern in the electoral college and his margin of victory was by 24%. It seems though any US presidential election in the modern era with with a 20+ victory is an electoral blowout, u have to retcon a lot of votes in ur scenario in1980 for this to not be a total annihilation. Reagan in 84 was an 18% margin and in 1980 his victory margin was 9%.
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Eh, it's OK. Guy does have six figures subbed, though if that's more because of his notoriety as opposed to musical talent is up in the air.
As a comparison, iOTL, Reagan won California 52.7 to 35.9 (so by roughly 17 points.) Assuming that he *barely* wins California iTTL , let's assume he does 16 points worse across the board (I know that there will be a variety of differences especially with Carey not doing as well as Carter in the South, but just considering..). That means he wins (in order by Margin) Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, North Dakota, Nevada, Wyoming, Arizona, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Alaska, Oklahoma, Kansas, Montana, Colorado, Indiana, New Mexico, Florida and California.)
This actually gives a fairly simple map with Carey taking everything east of Kansas City Missouri except for three states: Florida, Indiana and New Hampshire and Reagan taking everything west of Kansas City, Missouri except for Texas, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii. Final in EV in this case would be 394-144.
And *very* oddly, most of the core south: NC, SC, TN, AL, MS and AR were almost identical in the race with Reagan winning iOTL by between 0 and 2.2 points. So even if Carey does 3 points better than OTL he keeps most of the south .
Note, Illinois is the determining state here. Reagan won it by 7.9% iOTL. If Reagan does 7.9% worse than OTL, it is 257 Carey, 255 Regan with Illinois's 26 EV determining the winner.
This actually gives a fairly simple map with Carey taking everything east of Kansas City Missouri except for three states: Florida, Indiana and New Hampshire and Reagan taking everything west of Kansas City, Missouri except for Texas, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii. Final in EV in this case would be 394-144.
And *very* oddly, most of the core south: NC, SC, TN, AL, MS and AR were almost identical in the race with Reagan winning iOTL by between 0 and 2.2 points. So even if Carey does 3 points better than OTL he keeps most of the south .
Note, Illinois is the determining state here. Reagan won it by 7.9% iOTL. If Reagan does 7.9% worse than OTL, it is 257 Carey, 255 Regan with Illinois's 26 EV determining the winner.
Good analysis but your giving basically giving Reagan a 17% head start. Reagan IRL in 1980 (understandably) drastically outperformed Ford(1976) however ITTL going into November he hasn’t closed the gaps like Ford did. The race by Election Day in 76 was dead even in the polls. However here Carey will still be up 20+ points by Election Day. It’s impossible to give Reagan states other than California and a couple of deep Republican west states with him being down behind that bad.
Polling for United States presidential elections - Wikipedia
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Personally, I'm very doubtful this will be the case. Polling leads that big don't tend to last, and most large leads like that often go down over the course of the campaign (it did for Carter in '76 and Johnson in '64. And Johnson was running against Goldwater, who ran a pretty bad campaign). Hell, the author has already very heavily implied that is happening a while back (I think at the same time they noted the existence of such bad poll numbers). Yes, Reagan hasn't closed by as much as Ford did, but I don't think Reagan will be behind by 20 points come Election Day; he's got charisma, political instincts, and a stronger base than most other big time losers, like Goldwater or Dukakis (and let's remember, Dukakis still won 45%), who tended to lack at least one of those. It seems to me a Carey victory in the upper single digits in the popular vote seems likeliest, and a victory for Carey in that range probably gets him to the upper 300's, as suggested by the author. With Reagan winning California, that means two things: 1, Reagan has won the most populous state (and therefore the state with the most EVs) and secondly, while not necessarily doing great nationally and no doubt aided locally by the favorite son effect, he's doing well enough that the bottom didn't fall out from his campaign. A bad loss, but nothing to suggest Reagan is getting curbstomped like Goldwater, McGovern, or Mondale, honestly. Probably more Dukakis or Dole.
It’s specifically stated that Reagan by the time of the first presidential debates Reagan has only narrowed Carey substanial lead “somewhat”. So lets say Carey’s lead out of the conventions was 20% which I think is kind to Reagan, let’s say by “somewhat narrowing Carey’s lead” means he’s lowered it by 4%. That means Reagan going into the first presidential debate is down by 16% which is about a Reagan in 1984 type victory lead for Carey.
It’s said that the first presidential debate improved Reagan’s ratings “a bit”. Let’s say “a bit” means 2% which I think is fair. That means after the first presidential debate Reagan is down by 14% during october. I think it’s fair to say that by Election Day Reagan will be down 12-13% . At the most Reagan could overperform on Election Day by 3%. So best case scenario for Reagan is that he loses by 9% which is how much Carter and Dole lost by.
Now the question becomes IF Reagan were to hit his over performing ceiling on Election Day losing at a 9% margin whether the electoral college looks like IRL 1980 but blue or IRL 1996, and it will 100% look more like 1980. Here’s Why, in IRL going into the first presidential debate Reagan was losing narrowly in the polls to Carter even though theoretically he should have been leading by wide margins but because people saw him as too extreme and the media was ruthless in being harsh on him for his gaffes he didn’t have the lead he should have had. Even though Carter was unpopular Reagan was just as unpopular as him.
However his presidential debates where he curbstomped Carter is when he gained the momentum and trust of the country to win by the margin he should have been predicted to win at the beginning of the presidential debates. ITTL he has all the skepticism and unpopularity he had going IRL going into the presidential debates but none of the insane momentum from the debates IRL Reagan gained nor is he going up against an extremely unpopular incumbent. Dole had an advantage that he ran after Reagnomics and conservatism became the accepted status quo, Reagan ITTL does not have that he is still seen as an outsider and radical.
Extreme voter fatigue, crappy economy with sky high unemployment and inflation, and running a candidate most of middle america thinks is too far on one side of the political aisle are the ingredients for a blowout loss. Plus in 96 Dole won a lot of his states by very narrow margins and he was more in the political mainstream than Reagan is ITTL.
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Under Carey there won’t be a Plaza Accords so Japan’s late 80s bubble is more or less butterflied… so there’ll be a very different vibe there
Stay tuned, though Carey will be out of office by the time the shit hits the fan in East Asia
I mean, Plaza Accords weren’t the entire thing that caused the bubble in Japan, but it was a main part of it.
Right, definitely. So you’ll still have big growth in the mid to late 1980s it just won’t be quite as unsustainable/bubbly.
It also means the “Japan Inc” vibe will last deep into the 90s and I’m a sucker for that late 80s “Japan will rule the future” aesthetic
Yeah, I’m a bit of a fan for that too. I an thinking it will slow down for various reasons in the 1990s though.
Yup.
Yup
I am a sucker for it too
Heh. Maybe they have a less audacious version of the mega pyramid in Tokyo Bay. Doubt it.
Here is some informational films
A “Managed Expectations” decade rather than a Lost Decade?! Haha
Any more updates on Latin America? The rebellions can’t have been crushed by now- at least the ones in South America
Yup
Not sure on the state f Japanese politics in this world, but cannot see the LDP not in power.
There is a big gap in states at "20 points down" Of the states in the entry above, California (16.8), Florida(17), New Mexico(18.8) and Indiana (18.4) were less than 20 points down. (Colorado was 24 points) The states that he won by 20 points or more plus California (which he held on) add up to 110 EV.
Note, all of these are just from Reagan vs. Carter. I don't have a good feeling how the *lack* of Anderson affects things.
Also, you’d probably see a bigger swing in Carey’s favor in Indiana (the gruff labor guy) or Florida (Askew on the ticket) than CA or NM, which Reagan is a better fit for as a Westerner and with the political context of the Sagebrush Rebellion
I could see Carey running up his popular vote margin by just smoking Reagan in the Steel Belt/Midwest.