What would have happened had Biafra won the war and endued as an independent nation?
Biafra wins the Nigerian Civil War
- Thread starter Armored Diplomacy
- Start date
They'd have the lion's share of Nigeria's oil. That would be very very very bad for the rest of Nigeria, and if it develops the right way after the war it could end up looking like a geographically out of place gulf state (or like Equatorial Guinea if things go wrong).
CaliGuy
Banned
^They'd have the lion's share of Nigeria's oil. That would be very very very bad for the rest of Nigeria, and if it develops the right way after the war it could end up looking like a geographically out of place gulf state (or like Equatorial Guinea if things go wrong).
This.
Also, the rest of Nigeria might break-up.
Earth Judicar
Banned
It would I think encourage other groups in Nigeria to seek independence and the country would probably collapse.
Might be that same will happen around Africa. All would say "If Biafra can do that, why we couldn't too?".
Earth Judicar
Banned
Which would lead to the continent turning into more of a wreck than it already was. With ethnic groups and insurgencies battling weak governments and atrocities abounding on all sides-foreign intrigues and arm sales, cycles of coups and counter coups. Civil war would burn through the continent.
Western Region of Nigeria (Largely Yorubaland) splits off. So does the Northern Region. The Eastern Region, being Biafra goes it.
Possibility that Ojukwu becomes a dictator. The oil boom in the 1970s will make Biafra extremely wealthy given it's relatively small population (around 13 million). I expect that Biafrans would have heady days in the 70s. I'm curious as to how they would've combated Apartheid. Post-Civil War Nigeria was very active against the Apartheid states of South Africa, Rhodesia, Angola and Mozambique...
Possibility that Ojukwu becomes a dictator. The oil boom in the 1970s will make Biafra extremely wealthy given it's relatively small population (around 13 million). I expect that Biafrans would have heady days in the 70s. I'm curious as to how they would've combated Apartheid. Post-Civil War Nigeria was very active against the Apartheid states of South Africa, Rhodesia, Angola and Mozambique...
Given that South Africa and Portugal were supporters of Biafra I think it'd be more like Malawi than OTL Nigeria. Sympathetic to the ANC but afraid of becoming the only conservative country on the continent.
Kinda sounds like otl
I Think Biafra could set a precedent, the again how much of an impact has south sudan, Eritrea and Somaliland had on seperatist movements in Africa?
Also I don't think break away states are necessarily going to be worse off, Somaliland and Puntland (although it did rejoin Somalia) have provided better security that the rest of Somalia. South Sudan has more or less collapsed and Eritrea while secure is a pretty nasty dictatorship. So I think you have to take into account the particularities of each case.
Earth Judicar
Banned
At the same time a successful breakaway by Biafra would just make the other separatist movements all the more inspired and motivated to fight for secession.
Yeah I do agree with you there but you have to remember that their already succesful secessionist attempts in Africa, ie South Sudan, Eritrea and Somaliland (well its not recognised so maybe scratch it). So would these examples have provided an inspiration/motivation for African secessionist movements.
I guess a different feature for a Biafra secession is that unlike the IRL examples, it wouldn't be based on colonial boundaries (Eritrea was an Italian colony separate to Ethiopia, Somaliland was a British colony, South Sudan was administered separately from the rest of the Condonimium) so i guess it would represent more of a break with the colonial boundaries that have held in Africa. Also Biafra would be more of an ethno based secession than the IRL examples and so could perhaps inspire the creation of more nation-state secessionist movements. This could have interesting implications in a myriad of conflicts such as Ethiopia in the 1990s, the DRC, the CAR ect.
Truth be told, this imbalance could be a consequence of Dutch disease.
The rest of the country, would have evolved its economy in a different direction.
Does it have anything else in the way of natural resources?
On the other hand, if Nigeria somehow remains somewhat intact then Biafran secession might be a blessing to Nigerian politics as the loss of those natural resources will drive the state to invest into its people as the Rentier State theory suggests, bringing about democratization and civil society.
Fair point. It depends on how the war ends, but given the OTL disparity in numbers and equipment, I can't imagine anything other than a bloody stalemate. Perhaps a profit-sharing agreement, South-Sudan style, would be what actually stops the fighting.
But the western one would have the ridiculously massive city of Lagos, which is a major port and industrial centre.