Best case scenario for Japan in WW2

[WheelyWheelyLegsNoFeely]

Hopefully it's obvious that "best case" in the title is relative to the perspective of Imperial Japan, not what the actual best case scenario for humanity is.

While some have argued that Germany could have won the European theatre of WW2 through different policy decisions, almost everyone agrees that Japan stood no chance of victory in their war. Obviously, a total victory for Japan would be implausible, but I was curious about what the best case scenario for Japan might be with a POD at the start of the Second Sino-Japanese War in 1937 (or slightly earlier). Would they be able to conquer China and the various European colonies (Indochina, Indonesia, and Malaya), and is there any scenario where they don't attack the U.S.? Even short of a Japanese victory, would a stalemate in the Pacific be feasible at any point?

 

[AlanL]

Hopefully it's obvious that "best case" in the title is relative to the perspective of Imperial Japan, not what the actual best case scenario for humanity is.

Even if we ignore the rest of humanity, there's still a (potentially large!) difference between "best for the lives of most Japanese people" and "best for the political interests of Japan's ruling clique"

 

[karlos2075]

Well I've found this: https://www.deviantart.com/arthistorian2000/art/Autonomy-given-to-Japan-s-colonies-920418414

https://www.deviantart.com/arthistorian2000/art/Life-in-Japanese-Dominions-in-the-1930-s-958986162

 

[WheelyWheelyLegsNoFeely]

Even if we ignore the rest of humanity, there's still a (potentially large!) difference between "best for the lives of most Japanese people" and "best for the political interests of Japan's ruling clique"

Right, by "Imperial Japan" I meant the ruling government, not the Japanese people themselves. "Best case scenario" is more in reference to the ambitions of the Japanese government than in terms of human rights or prosperity.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

The best case scenario is one where Japan exerts its influence on the Asian mainland by cooperating with the Kuomintang to destroy the Communists instead of making war with China. Your POD is the death of Seishiro Itagaki and Kanji Ishiwara in a failed coup around 1930, thus ensuring the Mukden Incident does not happen. Additionally, have pro Kuomintang men like Iwane Matsui and Yasuji Okamura rise to prominent positions in the high command.

 

[Garrison]

Right, by "Imperial Japan" I meant the ruling government, not the Japanese people themselves. "Best case scenario" is more in reference to the ambitions of the Japanese government than in terms of human rights or prosperity.

The best case scenario is that they get the racial equality clause passed during the Versailles negotiations, don't veer into rampant militarism, avoid overly aggravating the Americans and look to pick off Vichy colonies as a co-belligerent. Not very likely but really hard to devise a realistic scenario where they get into a war with the Americans and it doesn't end in complete disaster.

 

[Dr. Hochmeister]

With a '37 POD, the best case scenario for Imperial Japan is one where Chiang Kai-shek dies before the Battle of Shanghai and China somehow implodes into another round of civil wars and Japan (somehow) avoids escalating things beyond Northern China, thus preventing that morass and the slow poisoning of relations with the West. After that, the best game for them is to not play and stay the hell out of fighting either the WAllies or USSR. Which, highly unlikely given the Military's habit of Leroy Jenkensing them into various wars and assassinating anyone who's not willing to go along.

If they do end up at war with the WAllies, the only possible scenario I can possibly see going better for them than OTL is a tortuously convoluted and highly unlikely one where Japan ends their war in China pre-'1941, the US ends up at war with Germany first, Japan avoids the "sneak attack" on Pearl Harbor, and the initial engagements go so poorly for the Japanese that they're willing to sue for peace before strategic bombing and the blockade ramp up and the WAllies are busy enough with Germany and not so rip-roaringly mad at Japan that they're willing to let them off the hook with lenient terms. In general, this is even less likely than Japan staying out of WWII to begin with.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

Avoid the Second-Sino Japanese War entirely, except for Manchuria. Seize the Dutch East Indies if the opportunity presents itself but don't attack Britain or America. Make a bid for northern Sakhalin when Barbarossa hits. Getting Japan to restrain itself like that would be difficult given the assassinations of leaders seen as dovish and the tendency of junior officers to start shit on their own initiative.

 

[Glenn239]

Hopefully it's obvious that "best case" in the title is relative to the perspective of Imperial Japan, not what the actual best case scenario for humanity is.

Best case scenario is easy. The Americans wake up and smell the coffee. They realize that China is the sleeping giant to the United States that the United States is to Japan. They come to believe that in the future, the Republic of Manchukuo would look pretty good on a map.

 

[Craig]

Ignore the Philippines.

 

[rush4you]

A panicked (or badly advised) Chiang Kai-shek secretly offers docking rights to the Germans in exchange for advisors and weapons, and Germany complies, hoping that future U-boat campaigns from the Chinese mainland can destabilize the British Asian possessions and trade if China holds; but this secret treaty is intercepted by British intelligence. This means that the British stand to excuse Japanese actions on China to the Americans, delaying or preventing embargoes even after French Indochina is taken. Without American embargoes and renewed British trade, Japanese never attack the Americans. Even the Dutch are pushed into continue trade from the DEI to Japan until the Chinese are neutralized as a threat to the British. The cherry on top would be Japan declaring war on Germany by late 1940, sending the IJN and air forces to assist in the Battle of Britain and escorting convoys.

 

[steel_captain]

How about the Emperor Showa forbidding the rise of the militarists in the early 1930's and dictating that Japan remain pacifist and democratic?

 

[gatordad699]

Emperor Hirohito lines up the vast majority of junior Naval and Army Officers , and some Admirals and Generals, in the very early 30s to give them all awards. Then he has heavy crew served weapons kill all of them. It’s not paranoia if they really are out to get you. He then makes sure the military stays under civilian control. He moves the government to a democratic model. He has the country invest in bringing their production and economy up to modern standards. When war in Europe starts he joins the Allies. When the Germans invade Russia, Stalin will be able to bring his men from the China theater to the front immediately. The Allies will be able to focus their entire efforts towards Germany (I’m assuming that Hitler will either declare war on the US or FDR will force it in the Atlantic). The war in Europe will hopefully end sooner. Russia will hopefully not advance as far west as they did OTL. 63 Japanese cities don’t get firebombed and 2 don’t get nuked. How their economy will do post war without having to rebuild the entire country I have no idea. Has to be better than OTL. Still get the Toyota Production System in the late 40s so the car thing should be about the same.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

How about the Emperor Showa forbidding the rise of the militarists in the early 1930's and dictating that Japan remain pacifist and democratic?

Emperor Hirohito lines up the vast majority of junior Naval and Army Officers , and some Admirals and Generals, in the very early 30s to give them all awards. Then he has heavy crew served weapons kill all of them. It’s not paranoia if they really are out to get you. He then makes sure the military stays under civilian control.

Both of these scenarios require Hirohito to have half of the steeliness that his grandfather had.

IOTL he didn't even possess ten percent of that.

 

[Simon Darkshade]

Either not going for Pearl with the precise timing or messing up early so badly that there is an opportunity for an application of a theoretical ‘mercy rule’ through messing up so badly they can secure a status quo ante bellum peace for their pre 1937 Empire. Once they start the bar brawl by kicking the big bloke in the orchestra stalls, they begin on a degenerating path they can’t win.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Here's a totally weird idea, but not completely implausible.

Background:

The USSR had friendly relations with the RoC and in particular with the KMT. The USSR provided some funds to the KMT in its early days, and provided combat aircraft to the RoC in the 1930. The USSR also had several substantial armed clashes with Japan.

Germany had friendly relations with the RoC and with the Chiang regime. An official German military mission helped train the the Chinese army, and German advisors guided the Chinese commander in China's most important victory over the Japanese at Taiehrchwang. Chiang sent one of his sons for military training in Germany; the son was commissioned into the Wehrmacht, and had nominal command of a German unit during the occupation of Austria.

There was a superficial quasi-alliance between Germany and the USSR in 1939-1941. This was ended when Hitler invaded the USSR (Operation BARBAROSSA). But it didn't have to - if for some reason Hitler was out of the picture. Hitler's designated successor was Goering, and AIUI, Goering opposed BARBAROSSA (though he never dared say so to Hitler). If he took over in late 1940, he might choose to try to build on the German-Soviet quasi-alliance for the war against Britain.

So:

I can imagine Goering also deciding to build on the existing alliance with China, leading to competition with the USSR in supplying arms etc. to China. (German aid passing through the USSR.) Stalin also looks east, since there will be no opportunities in Europe for some years. He directs the CCP to submit to the KMT and "bore from within" (Mao gets purged.)

Soviet forces attack Japan, along with the revived Chinese army, which includes a (supposedly) volunteer "Dragon Legion" of German planes and pilots. The Soviets conquer Manchuria and Korea. China regains control of its southern coast.

Germany establishes secret U-boat bases in China and in Siberia.

Eventually China seizes Hong Kong, thus going to war with Britain.

The end result of all this is that Japan becomes an Ally. They're a pack of murderous thugs, but so was the USSR, and OTL they got to be one of the "Good Guys".

And eventually, the US joins Britain as an Ally, and eventually the Allies win (including Japan, which does not get blockaded, bombed to flinders, or nuked).

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Here's a totally weird idea, but not completely implausible...

This idea counts on the combined might of Germany, China and the Soviets not crushing Japan before it can join the Allies, which I deem quite unlikely.

In your scenario, we might very well be seeing Kuomintang and/orSoviet troops on Japanese soil before 1942 is out.

 

[Yatta]

This idea counts on the combined might of Germany, China and the Soviets not crushing Japan before it can join the Allies, which I deem quite unlikely.

In your scenario, we might very well be seeing Kuomintang and/orSoviet troops on Japanese soil before 1942 is out.

While they might be able to kick Japan off the mainland, an attempt to invade the Japanese home islands will have an even lower chance than sealion to succeed.

 

[steel_captain]

I forgot to add that Japan remain in the League of Nations and not isolate itself as it did.

They can have their Manchuko but stop there with no Second Sino-Japanese War but retain Korea and Taiwan. I believe the rest of the world was going to be OK with that.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

This idea counts on the combined might of Germany, China and the Soviets not crushing Japan before it can join the Allies, which I deem quite unlikely.

Germany is involved against Japan, but is thousands of miles away and busy fighting Britain.
China is big, can muster significant strength, but is still an unindustrialized country with a weak national government.
The USSR is big and industrialized, but its heartland is thousands of miles away, connected to the Far East by a single railroad line.
And none of them have significant naval strength in the Pacific, whereas Japan is one of the largest naval powers in the world.

In your scenario, we might very well be seeing Kuomintang and/orSoviet troops on Japanese soil before 1942 is out.

How do they get there? Such an invasion would be an Asian version of SEALION.

I will concede that the USSR could almost certainly seize Karafuto (southern Sakhalin), which was "Japanese soil" at time. However, La Perouse Strait, separating Sakhalin from Hokkaido, is as wide as the English Channel at Dover. The USSR would have to deploy overwhelming airpower to Sakhalin, or else any attempted invasion would be destroyed by Japan's overwhelming naval power.