The Point of Divergence is World War One.
1914:
Helmuth Von Moltke does not alter the original Schlieffen Plan as much as OTL. He believes it will only succeed with an invasion of Netherlands where they can utilise the transport networks there. Thus, in TTL, Germany invades through the Netherlands and Belgium as well. Ultimately, the German army fails to end the war in the west in 40 days, and both armies dig in.
The war proceeds as per OTL, with minor differences, the Netherlands is pillaged for its extensive agriculture (termed ‘the hun raping of the land’.) The war ends as per OTL, the Netherlands receives some minor concession from Germany mainly in the form of financial compensation. Additionally the Low Countries believe themselves to be the biggest victim of the war, and constantly squeezed between two hungry predators (Germany/France)
Inter-War Years
The real changes come after WW1. The Low Countries see themselves as the worst affected by the war, and it creates a strong solidarity amongst the nations. The Netherlands is one of the more vocal supporters of the Treaty of Versailles in the 20s. Though there is military and economic co-operation between the three countries, there is no thought to making an integrated defence force, let alone a country.
The three monarchies are particularly worried that in the event of a future war, they will most likely be the battlefield again – and they lack the strength for a protracted war. They look to the Switzerland example, where they see it beneficial to make it ‘extremely hard’ for any nation to declare war on them – that by virtue of this, they will respect their neutrality. Schemes of conscription and ‘ready reserves’ are adopted by the nations, though they lack depth and heavy equipment in the early days.
When the French begin construction of their ‘Maginot Line’ in 1930, the Low Countries are inclined to agree with their reasoning. Owing to the successful strategy in WW1 of static defensive combat, they are convinced that they could hold off a belligerent Germany indefinitely behind a line of forts stretching the length of the Benelux countries. The line serves not only as a defensive measure, but as a means of allowing the nations to fully mobilize. (Noting the immense cost of such an undertaking, the line will not be as fully developed as OTLs Maginot, but will still be impressive)
An important point for the success of the line is the establishment of a Joint Defensive Command, whilst it maintains the independence of each army, it pools the command and resources of each nation to maintaining the walls. Noting the shortages of manpower Luxembourg uniquely allows women to serve on the line (their role is limited to communications and ancillary duties due to the culture at the time, but still a significant break). There is also a belief (in the early days) that in the event of war with Germany, France and Britain will rush their armies to the ‘Benelux Line’ and complement their own forces defending there.
Despite this extra measure of confidence, international events proceed as per OTL. Britain and France continue with their policy of ‘Appeasement’, and one by one Hitler is able to exert his aggressive foreign policy. The Low Countries are appalled by Britain and France’s weakness, and draw closer together. The final straw comes with the allied abandonment of Czechslovakia. The Low countries formally declare ‘strict neutrality’ in regards to Germany, and form a ‘Co-Operative Defence Pact’ called the ‘Benelux Alliance’.
When Hitler makes his demands for Danzig to Poland, Britain and France decide enough is enough. They issue a guarantee to Poland, and attempt to encourage Benelux input – this is flatly refused. When Germany invades Poland and war is officially declared , Benelux mobilizes their ‘defence force’ (still separate armies) and occupies their ‘Benelux Line’ as a neutral power.
Poland falls as per OTL and the phoney war starts in earnest. Hitler is more or less happy with this situation. Though he sees Benelux as an obstacle to a Blitzkrieg on France, it allows him to try for peace with the west and concentrate on ‘Lebensbraum’. Though he is confident he would punch through the Benelux Line, he knows it will take many casualties and most importantly – time. This is especially true if the other allied powers are able to rush armies to the line as well. A neutral Benelux suits him for the time being, he knows France cannot afford an invasion on their front, and by keeping Benelux neutral they will not have the strength to invade him from there too. He issues a guarantee that he will respect Benelux neutrality.
During this time Benelux also has faith in the strength of their neutrality, and in view of Britain and France's unwillingness to militarily support Poland they come to rely on themselves. They further integrate their economies and allow for the free movement of workers and industry between their countries. They also begin to adopt the ‘women on the line’ policies of Luxembourg, who have increased the fighting efficiency of their defence force incredibly (also it turns out women are well suited for organisational tasks)
When the winter war flares up Hitler becomes very pleased. The best possible outcome for him is a confrontation between the West and the Soviet Union. In such an event he envisages an ‘honourable peace’ with the west, and a chance to strike for Lebensbraum. Meanwhile Mussolini looks on with interest. He craves neighbouring Yugoslavia and Greece, his only dilemma is which one to go for first, and what will the West’s reaction be.
In the Far East, things have proceeded as OTL – but with a neutral Benelux Alliance in control of DEI, it has greatly complicated their designs for empire in the region – perhaps they can be blackmailed for oil. Without the fall of France though, many in Japanese High Command are not confident of an eventual German victory and they have much to lose by risking conflict.
So... what happens next?
