Balance of Power in Europe w/ Yorkist England

So let's say, for the PoD, we have Edward IV living a few more months -- just avoiding death in April 1483, then surviving and reigning until October 1487. As a result, Edward V is (more or less) of age when he comes to power, and Richard of Gloucester doesn't overthrow him. (For the purposes of this thread, let's assume this much as a given.) What matters here, for our purposes, is that now all six of Edward IV's children are eligible for royal marriage -- and that has a very notable impact on the web of alliances that is Late Medieval/Renaissance Europe.

Since it happens before our PoD, we can safely say that the Peace of Arras still happens, meaning France has recently broken off the engagement between Charles VIII and Edward's oldest daughter, Elizabeth. To make a long story short, this is how I see the marriage alliances shaping up in response to these events and other events recent to Edward's brush with death:
YORK
Edward IV (1442 - 1487) m 1464 Elizabeth Woodville (1437 - ?)
  • Elizabeth (1466 - ?) m 1484 to Emperor Maximillian I (1459 - ?)
    • Elizabeth
    • Ernst
    • Eleanor
  • Cecily (1469 - ?) m 1488 to James IV of Scotland (1473 - ?)
    • Isabele
    • James
    • Alexander
  • Edward V (1470 - ?) m 1495 to Juana of Castille (1479 - ?)
    • Elizabeth
    • Edward
    • Joanna
    • Richard
    • Mary
    • Lionel
  • Richard (1473 - 1495) m 1493 to Anne of Brittany (1477 - 1494)
  • Anne (1475 - ?) m 1495 to Phillip of Burgundy (1478 - ?)
    • Charles
    • Eleanor
  • Catherine (1479 - ?) m 1495 to Juan Prince of Asturias (1478 - 1496)
Richard, Duke of Gloucester (1452 - ?) m 1472 to Anne Neville (1456 - ?)
  • Edward of Middleham (1473 - 1496) m 1491 to Eleanor Percy (1474 - ?)
    • Eleanor
    • Edward
TRASTAMARA
Isabella of Castille (1451 - 1504) m 1469 to Ferdinand of Aragon (1452 - ?)

  • Isabella (1470 - ?) m 1490 to Alfonso VI of Portugal (1475 - ?)
    • Isabella
    • Joao
    • Leanor
    • Catarina
  • John (1478 - 1496) m 1495 to Catherine of York (1479 - ?)
  • Juana (1479 - ?) m 1495 to Edward V of England (1470 - ?)
    • Elizabeth
    • Edward
    • Joanna
    • Richard
    • Mary
    • Lionel
  • Maria (1482 - ?) m 1502 to Vladislaus II of Bohemia and Hungary (1456 - ?)
    • Mary
    • John
  • Catherine (1485 - ?) m Ferdinand II of Naples (1469 - ?)

FRENCH LINE OF SUCESSION (as of the death of Louis XI)
Charles VIII of France (1470 - ?) m 1494 to Margaret of Austria (1480 - ?)

  • Anne
Louis, Duke of Orleans (1462 - 1499) m 1476 to Joan of France (1464 - 1505)

Charles, Count of Angouleme (1459 - ?) m 1488 to Louise of Savoy (1476 - ?)
  • Francis I of France
  • Marguerite
Now, all of this being laid out, what I'm particularly interested in for this thread is -- how does this affect the Balance of Power in Europe, for the next generation or so? We can think of subsequent history happening in phases -- first, until the mid 1510's or so; second, we can think of the "next generation" as roughly corresponding to the Protestant Ascendency (or 1518 to 1545).

Because you'll note that France is a lot more diplomatically isolated TTL than OTL, and in a potentially much weaker position; meanwhile, Spain, Burgundy, and Austria haven't all been combined into a single ultimate Plus Ultra Empire, even as they all remain allied to each other, and to England, through marriage (and, in the case of Spain, to Portugal through marriage, then union). England has managed to hold Scotland at bay for the time being with a martial alliance of their own, and the latter's king happens to be the nephew of the King of Denmark (for what that's worth). Really, the only major ally I can see France winning over in Europe is the King of Hungary and Bohemia (who does have his own issues with the Hapsburgs).

What does this potentially mean for the prospect of conflict and/or peace in (Western) Christendom? What would it mean for how the Protestant Reformation begins, particularly in Germany, against this kind of backdrop? Regardless of how this affects things like the New World or the emerging European Colonial Empires,* I have to wonder how states like Spain and the Lowlands would be affected by not being unified, or the Holy Roman Empire from not roped into said colonial conflicts, or even potentially Italy, if they have fewer and/or smaller wars to worry about? And probably a good deal else I'm not thinking of (not even touching upon how England itself is affected).

But what do you guys think? @noturaveragejoe0316 @BlueFlowwer @happy35 @ordinarylittleme @isabella @Kellan Sullivan @VVD0D95

*For the first era, (1490's to 1510's) I don't imagine the Age of Exploration is a huge factor; but as we start getting into the next era (1520's to mid 1540's), I imagine the question of who is getting what kind of riches from overseas plunder and trade will prove at least somewhat relevant, if only to determine the various regimes' finances.
 
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I see the early death of Alfonso of Portugal as more-or-less inevitable. You will do better to have Catherine born as Ferdinand and married to Isabella and Alfonso’s posthumous daughter (a perfectly fine and natural wedding for the Iberian standards of the time) for uniting the Iberian Kingdoms and keeping the bloodline of John II of Portugal on that throne. Maria will likely marry Vladislaus II of Hungary NOT Ferdinand II of Naples (who has a perfect bride in his half-aunt Joanna of Naples). And why you have killed off the poor Anne of Brittany?
 
I see the early death of Alfonso of Portugal as more-or-less inevitable.
First, Prince Alfonso died OTL by falling off a horse, which is very much avertable; second, even if he had still died, Isabella's OTL son by her second husband could have survived; and third, this is rehashing a lot of the stuff we discussed in the last thread, and I'm kind of hoping we can look at the bigger picture in this one.
Maria will likely marry Vladislaus II of Hungary NOT Ferdinand II of Naples (who has a perfect bride in his half-aunt Joanna of Naples).
Do you mean Beatrice? Which OK, that is fair enough, for the purposes of the thread. But I will say that he did have the marriage annulled OTL, saying it was pretty much forced upon him by his nobles (who I guess wanted to keep the queen of his predecessor); in any event, he remarried OTL to a French noblewoman (specifically a cousin to the Queen of Navarre), and had two children by her.
 
First, Prince Alfonso died OTL by falling off a horse, which is very much avertable; second, even if he had still died, Isabella's OTL son by her second husband could have survived; and third, this is rehashing a lot of the stuff we discussed in the last thread, and I'm kind of hoping we can look at the bigger picture in this one.
That specific accident, if was an accident can be avertable, but John II had a LOT of enemies (starting with Ferdinand II of Aragon) so his only legitimate son and child was practically a dead man walking. An Iberian union under the line of John II is extremely unrealistic… and your bigger picture is extremely flawed, considering the earlier death of John of Asturias and the totally random one of Anne of Brittany… do an united Iberia under the Trastamara or the Viseu Aviz and I will not say nothing against it…
Do you mean Beatrice? Which OK, that is fair enough, for the purposes of the thread. But I will say that he did have the marriage annulled OTL, saying it was pretty much forced upon him by his nobles (who I guess wanted to keep the queen of his predecessor); in any event, he remarried OTL to a French noblewoman (specifically a cousin to the Queen of Navarre), and had two children by her.
No, I mean Joanna, the daughter of Ferdinand I of Naples by his second wife Joanna of Aragon (daughter of John II of Aragon and Joanna Enriquez and so sister of Ferdinand II) and OTL wife of Ferdinand II of Naples. Without both Louis XII and Anne of Brittany as sovereigns of France, Anne of Foix-Candale would NEVER become Vladislaus’ third wife so he need a different one
 
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t I will say that he did have the marriage annulled OTL, saying it was pretty much forced upon him by his nobles (who I guess wanted to keep the queen of his predecessor);
actually IIRC Vlad Bene married her for her money

e remarried OTL to a French noblewoman (specifically a cousin to the Queen of Navarre), and had two children by her.
Since Charles VIII is surviving here, he will not be proposing Anne d'Albret (who was, more importantly, cousin to Anne of Brittany). Which means that Vlad's third wife will definitely be different. Not sure who Charles would offer, his daughter is too young and he has no nieces of the right age.

PS: also, don't be expecting Burgundy and the Empire to be walking in lock-step. Max and Phil had a very difficult relationship OTL, and I don't see that changing. I don't think Phil will be thrilled with the idea of having to share his inheritance with his half-brother. Ernie will likely be given the Austrian lands of Archduke Sigmund (if not the whole thing). But if he has "all Austria", the electors might find him more palatable than Philippe.

PPS: if Maria of Aragon ends up in Hungary/Katherine of Aragon is born male, Katherine of York could take Maria's OTL place as Manuel I's second wife. Hell, on that score, given how Fernando tried to package off the widowed Margarethe of Austria to avoid having to use one of his own daughters, I could see Katherine of York winding up as Vlad Bene's third wife (unlikely, but not ASB)
 
Since Charles VIII is surviving here, he will not be proposing Anne d'Albret (who was, more importantly, cousin to Anne of Brittany). Which means that Vlad's third wife will definitely be different. Not sure who Charles would offer, his daughter is too young and he has no nieces of the right age...

PPS: if Maria of Aragon ends up in Hungary... Katherine of York could take Maria's OTL place as Manuel I's second wife.
Fine, I'll make the changes - Vladislaus takes Maria of Aragon for his third wife, and Catherine of York takes Manuel (who TTL isn't king) as her second husband.
PS: also, don't be expecting Burgundy and the Empire to be walking in lock-step. Max and Phil had a very difficult relationship OTL, and I don't see that changing. I don't think Phil will be thrilled with the idea of having to share his inheritance with his half-brother. Ernie will likely be given the Austrian lands of Archduke Sigmund (if not the whole thing). But if he has "all Austria", the electors might find him more palatable than Philippe.
This is a very important point to note, and could have some very interesting implications in its own right.
 
I wouldn't say that the king of Hungary would be the only ally France could win over. As seen OTL, there was a potential alliance considered with the Elector Palatine (Ludwig V) regarding the War of the Landshut Succession. Something that a) I don't see Margarethe of Austria preventing- perhaps if she'd had a dauphin, she'd have the influence, but with only a daughter, I don't see it- b) could have interesting effects in Germany*.

*OTL Georg the Rich of Landshut's younger daughter, Margarethe, was supposed to marry Wilhelm of Hesse. Instead, she decided to become a nun** and Wilhelm was married to Ludwig's sister, Elisabeth of the Palatinate instead. Elisabeth of the Palatinate's match is interesting because her Badener (second) marriage only occured OTL because of Louise de Savoie's meddling in blocking the margrave of Baden's pre-arranged match to Jeanne of Baden-Hachberg. Instead, Jeanne was married to Louise's cousin, the duc de Longueville.
The duc de Longueville and Anne de Foix-Candale (Vlad Bene's third wife) were in love, but she was married for reasons of state instead. So that would mean an entirely different house of Longueville, house of Baden, and potentially house of Hesse.
**this part I'm unclear on. I can never figure out if Georg - in trying to name Elisabeth of Landshut and her husband as his heirs - obligated Margarethe to join a convent (to reduce the competition from within his own house) or if she went willingly.

That means France could - potentially - have allies in the Palatinate (Ludwig V), Guelders (enemy of my enemy is my friend), Baden and Hesse are "wild cards" but it's not unthinkable that they could be "won over".

On the subject of Germany, there's also the matter of Lorraine. Does Charles VIII treat it differently to Louis XII? IIRC Louis XII was the first king of France who regarded Lorraine as "part of France".

That's Germany sorted.

Then there's Italy. Minus a rival claimant to Milan in the person of the king of France, Ludovico Sforza might stay on the French train a bit longer than he did OTL (François d'Angoulême still has the claim, but he isn't king of France and Charles could outlive Margarethe or still father a son to displace François). Louise de Savoie was offered as a potential second wife for Alfonso d'Este AIUI, but Lucrezia Borgia won out. If Duke Ercole were to ally with France sooner, we could see Louise winding up as duchess of Ferrara, or Alfonso could have a son by Anna Sforza (keeping the Sforza-Este alliance going) who gets married to Marguerite d'Angoulême.

That gives France allies in Milan, Ferrara, potentially Florence - depends on the Medici state of affairs, does Lorenzo il Magnifico still fall under Savonarola's spell? Does Piero il Unfortunato still become lord of Florence? Or does he die and some other Medici takes over? Who was next, Giovanni de Medici (aka Pope Leo X)? If so, he was as useless. Unless he can be disqualified due to being a cardinal. In which case, Giuliano is up to bat. In 1483, Jules is four, so you can pretty much make him be whatever you like.

PS: St. Casimir of Poland only died in 1484, so it's not impossible that the marriage negotiations between the Habsburgs and Jagiellons are far enough advanced that even though Cas dies, Kunigunde of Austria is still married to @Jan Olbracht . If Cas lives, that means Jan Olbracht is a strong contender to get the throne of Hungary (not Vlad), OTL, the Hungarians feared Jan would be a second Matthias Corvinus and went with Vlad instead (here, the Hungarians wouldn't know anything of his personality). If Cas dies, Jan is heir to Poland, but is at least married to the emperor's sister and likely to have kids earlier. Either way, this could have ripple effects in the Habsburg realms.
 
PS: also, don't be expecting Burgundy and the Empire to be walking in lock-step. Max and Phil had a very difficult relationship OTL, and I don't see that changing. I don't think Phil will be thrilled with the idea of having to share his inheritance with his half-brother. Ernie will likely be given the Austrian lands of Archduke Sigmund (if not the whole thing). But if he has "all Austria", the electors might find him more palatable than Philippe.
I agree with this .Not only will Phillip potentially lose his inheritance to his younger half- brother, but both Hapsburgs would have a claim to the English throne. I can see a sorta rivalry develop between this family and the French has experience meddling in family rivalries. They would use this to their advantage.

The Tudors will die out in obscurity. They were never really a fecund family so I don’t expect to see a lot of tiny Tudors running around, and now with the Yorks retaining their power no one is going to look twice at them, especially when Edward V and Juana have children. Juana is from a powerful family with unquestionabl legitimate Lancastrian decent, while the Tudors are illegitimate on both sides. They’re done.

I think the reformation can still happen in England. Maybe the Pope dose something to set Edward V off and he decides he has had enough of the Pope and decides to try Protestantism. Ironically he will have support with his Spanish Queen in Juana unlike in OTL with Catherine because she was never religious ( dear old mom tortured her because of that) and she will probably be in love with her husband and would be fine following his lead. So I can see the Trastamaras and the Yorks fractioning over religion. It might get to the point where we might have a alternative Armada with Spain trying to overthrow their English heretic cousins and conquering England for themselves.

 
I think the reformation can still happen in England. Maybe the Pope dose something to set Edward V off and he decides he has had enough of the Pope and decides to try Protestantism. Ironically he will have support with his Spanish Queen in Juana unlike in OTL with Catherine because she was never religious ( dear old mom tortured her because of that) and she will probably be in love with her husband and would be fine following his lead. So I can see the Trastamaras and the Yorks fractioning over religion. It might get to the point where we might have a alternative Armada with Spain trying to overthrow their English heretic cousins and conquering England for themselves.
while the Reformation is "likely" by 1483, there's no proof that it would either start with Luther or that the pope at the time would be as ineffectual as Leo X.

As to Edward V being the one to be "triggered", I suspect it will be his son, TTL Edward VI instead (none of Edward IV's daughters lived past 1520 - except Katherine), so I suspect mid-1520s is best case scenario for him. That said, TTL Edward VI could just as easily be an ardent Catholic.

Juana was not arreligious. She simply did not like the near ascetic brand of Catholicism of her mother, which to Isabel was rather much the same thing. What Juana did like - and her "chapel" at Tordesillas was set up for this, up to seventy musicians included, was the "high church" Catholicism seen in Burgundy and France. Not sure what sort of Catholicism there was in England (if it was high church or low church) but Juana was nothing if not stubborn- see her treatment by her father, husband and son. And considering that the young Edward V was described by a contemporary as a "young Apollo" in the looks department, poor Juana is likely going to be even "crazier" than she was (if we compare him with what Philippe the So-Called Handsome)
 
guys I wouldn't be so sure that with a Pod of 1483 the reform will necessarily happen (or rather if it happens it will be very different from the one we all know) furthermore if a reformist pope ends up in Rome (or at least not so interested in earthly goods for his family see Leo X, Clement VII, Innocent VIII ect) as a Alt Adrian VI were elected (perhaps Erasmus himself (it would be a nice idea), or an Alexander VI with more time at his disposal so he can concentrate on cleaning up the rot of the church ( at the expense of his opponents ) instead of placing his children in key positions, which we specify all his predecessors and successors did this thing) then we may see more of a reform within the church than a rift. Moreover the reform also happened due to the fact that those places no longer had a say on what was happening in Rome or for the reason that the papal see itself was unable to re-establish its pre-captivity authority beyond the Alps without state aid ( see France, Spain and the imperial Habsburgs (who made heavy use of the imperial church in their management of the empire post Luther et al.) as far as England is concerned it could go both ways (but it must be said that the English Catholic Church was in that period in full bloom especially the monasteries contrary to what is thought in mass culture)
 
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or an Alexander VI with more time at his disposal so he can concentrate on cleaning up the rot of the church ( at the expense of his opponents ) instead of placing his children in key positions,
@isabella and I have discussed it before: what of Rodrigo Borgia being elected instead of Innocent VIII? It gives Alexander the "extra time" without necessarily needing to prolong his life past OTL
 
@isabella and I have discussed it before: what of Rodrigo Borgia being elected instead of Innocent VIII? It gives Alexander the "extra time" without necessarily needing to prolong his life past OTL
ah I am aware of these discussions and I can say that I agree with you, it only takes Rodrigo to find the number of cardinals to cross the threshold (Cybo was a compromise candidate)
 
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@Kellan Sullivan Re the Medici state of affairs -- I was thinking the dynasty is still exiled, but that the subsequent “people’s” republic survives longer (maybe Piero Capponi lives, maybe conflicts in Italian go differently, etc). Which (however it comes about) likely means Florence is going to continue being friendly to France.
 
Looking at the family tree I recommend Katherine of Aragon marry in Naples to cement the Trastamara hold on that country and not let it fall into France's hands. Dose the Duchy of Brittany remain independent and do Richard of York and Anne have children? Also dose Catherine of York have children ITTL? Next to her eldest sister Elizabeth she was the most fertile of the York Princesses. It was discussed on another forum but if she and Juan had a Posthumous daughter she cold marry a Portugal Infante and theoretically unite the Penisula, replacing the Trastamra with the Aviz. I can see a rivalry ITTL between the Aviz vs Valois ( if the above scenario happens), Austrian-Hapsburgs vs Burgundy-Hapsburgs, and Valois vs Yorks of the Duchy of Brittany.
 
Looking at the family tree I recommend Katherine of Aragon marry in Naples to cement the Trastamara hold on that country and not let it fall into France's hands.
OK, done.
Dose the Duchy of Brittany remain independent and do Richard of York and Anne have children?
Probably not and no -- though the former, not for lack of effort.
Also dose Catherine of York have children ITTL? Next to her eldest sister Elizabeth she was the most fertile of the York Princesses.
Not with Juan of Asturias, he dies too soon. She could have children if she remarries, but that detail we can put aside for now.
I can see a rivalry ITTL between the Aviz vs Valois ( if the above scenario happens), Austrian-Hapsburgs vs Burgundy-Hapsburgs, and Valois vs Yorks of the Duchy of Brittany.
Aviz vs Valois I can definitely see (it's basically the Franco-Spanish Rivalry of OTL), and Yorks v Valois is natural as well. While Austrian and Burgundy Hapsburgs certainly won't be in lock step, I'm less sure they'd be, properly speaking, rivals, to the same extent as France has to its neighbors.
 
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