Axum without the Muslim Conquests

[Pachac]

Hello everyone. I've started to really materialize my TL regarding this, but I've hit a bit of a roadblock in terms of Axum. I know very little about them beyond their direct relation to Arabia and the 570 invasion of Mecca. I know too that part of the reasons for their decline was a simultaneous blocking off from the trade routes of the Mediterranean Littoral because of the Muslim conquests as well as a decline in fertility in the coastal region in which they inhabited.

With this in mind, what would happen if the former didn't happen? Axum was, if I remember, a fairly wealthy and prosperous power if not one incredibly notable in the politics of the world. With a descent into anarchy in the Arabian Peninsula, a slow recovery for Byzantium, and a complete collapse of any Persian influence within Arabia, what would the prospects look like for the fair Ethiopian state?

And another question; as far as I recall, the Axumites provided refuge for some of the Companions of the Prophet when they were forced out of Mecca and during the interceding years. Let us say that after a disaster in Arabia, the founders of Islam are forced to flee to Axum. How would this be taken by the Negusa Negast (or however the leader of the Axumites was called at the time), and additionally, how would Islam develop within such a foreign environment where they are a small minority in an area with a powerful state religion?

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Well, the Axumites seem to have claimed to be the protectors of the Christians in Yemen. One of the events that triggered the Axumite intervention seemed to have been Jews assuming power in Himyar. Basically I think Axumite dominance over Yemen might continue for some time, but gradually devolve into a more vassal- liege like situation, and at some point the Yemenis would break free.

 

[Pachac]

This is in 633. The PoD is the Riddah wars tearing Islam apart; it's far after the hegemony of Axum over Yemen.

 

[CandyDragon]

Hello everyone. I've started to really materialize my TL regarding this, but I've hit a bit of a roadblock in terms of Axum. I know very little about them beyond their direct relation to Arabia and the 570 invasion of Mecca. I know too that part of the reasons for their decline was a simultaneous blocking off from the trade routes of the Mediterranean Littoral because of the Muslim conquests as well as a decline in fertility in the coastal region in which they inhabited.

With this in mind, what would happen if the former didn't happen? Axum was, if I remember, a fairly wealthy and prosperous power if not one incredibly notable in the politics of the world. With a descent into anarchy in the Arabian Peninsula, a slow recovery for Byzantium, and a complete collapse of any Persian influence within Arabia, what would the prospects look like for the fair Ethiopian state?

And another question; as far as I recall, the Axumites provided refuge for some of the Companions of the Prophet when they were forced out of Mecca and during the interceding years. Let us say that after a disaster in Arabia, the founders of Islam are forced to flee to Axum. How would this be taken by the Negusa Negast (or however the leader of the Axumites was called at the time), and additionally, how would Islam develop within such a foreign environment where they are a small minority in an area with a powerful state religion?

Well, I've read the theory that the whole impetus for Axumite power during that period was based upon the extension of the monsoon into Ethiopia. When the rains stopped falling, and the growing season shrank, Axum fell. Obviously in such a world it will do comparatively better, but Axum will eventually lose the ability to project her power so much as she gets poorer.

Maintaining or increasing trade might help with that. Perhaps Egyptian grain could find its way south? I'm not sure about the feasibility of that, but it seems a decent shot, though it would require an independent and relatively placid Egypt, as all that excess grain would otherwise be going to swell Constantinople and feed the Byzantine Empire, and it would probably cost a lot.

I'm not sure about much of this, given that this is slightly out of my own typical area of interest but I hope it might help.

 

[Blackfox5]

Axum still suffers from its unfavorably geography compared to the other world powers. It's area of expansion is limited. However, without the political and economic isolation caused by the Islamic conquests, it will obviously do better than IOTL. This is what I see:

1) Interimittent control of Yemen. Ethiopian control of Yemen fluctuates through the centuries. When the Ethiopian state is strong, it can control the other side of the Red Sea. When the state is weakened, its control collapses and the Yemenites achieve indepdence.

2) Expanding control to the south. With Ethiopian ships and traders dominant in the southern Red Sea, the area of Somalia will become culturally Ethiopian over a long enough time period. In terms of actual physical expansion of the state, it depends on how sophisticated the Ethiopian state becomes. To be honest, the current size of Ethiopia is probably the largest extent possible for the next 500-1000 years. Even the Europeans and Muslims struggled to control states bigger than that. Somalia could be added to that. If so, Ethiopian control of the coasts would be stronger than in the interior (say the Ogaden). Again, this is very long term.

3) Ethiopia would be well placed to control the spice trade once Europe and the Mediterranean recover in the next few centuries. It could fluorish around 1000-1200 as European wealth expands and it spends it on Indian spices.

4) Assuming Egypt breaks off from Constantinople at some point, we might see the Oriental Churches of Egypt and Ethiopia (and the inbetween Sudanic states of Makuria, Nobatia, and Alwa) becomes its own distinct civilization just as "Latin Christendom" and "Greek Orthodoxy" became its own civilizations. All the complicated relations between the Latins and Greeks that played off IOTL will likely have something similar for both the Latins and Greens against the Oriental Church lands.

5) Despite any problems, Ethiopians will be attending various Church councils. There is likely to be many disputes between the Latins, Orthodox, and Oriental Churches, but there will be ongoing contact.

As for Islam, if the umma has fallen apart because of the Riddah Wars - whether we consider any of the individual offshoots that survive because of the Riddah Wars, or the core Islam itself exiled in Axum, it is more or less finished as a major religion - completely stillborn. It probably dies out in a few generations and survives in certain folkways. Its individual offshoots become more and more distorted, and it lacks any sort of prestige or influence. Most likely as whatever branch of Christianity becomes established in those areas, the locals adopt those teachings.

 

[Basileus Giorgios]

I'll cry foul about an Egyptian secession from the Empire- I think the idea of it doing so is very, very unlikely. So, to BlackFox and Candydragon, I don't think we should assume an independent Egypt for one second.

Axum in the sixth century was an important piece in the puzzle of the Roman/Sasanian power game for control over the Near East, acting with Roman support to topple the Jews of Himyar, as has been mentioned. As for the invasion of Mecca in 570, isn't that story apocryphal? I'm more convinced than ever that we have to tread very carefully when using any non-Quranic Islamic source for the seventh century, given that codification only happened under the Abbasids and stories were at the mercy of an unreliable oral tradition prior to this, besides from the Quran itself, which does seem to be a genuine seventh century text.

Anyway, I digress. If the Iranians are retreating from Arabia in the 630s, which is reasonable to expect, then Axum will start to lose her role in the eyes of Constantinople, which is anyway going to be spending the 630s and 640s getting her own house in order, with little time for extra shenanigans. Axum might have a bit of an existential crisis, though I suppose if it didn't happen IOTL, it won't do here. Eventually, when Rome is back on her feet properly after about 645 (fifteen years or so of peace and recovery), regular relations with Axum will resume, and the Axumites will probably slot back into their place as guardians of the imperial flank.

There may very well be attempts to convert the Axumites to Monothelitism, which will certainly be upheld by the government in Constantinople in a world without the crushing defeats of OTL- after all, God hasn't proclaimed his ill-judgement on the Romans here. On the other hand, there may not, given OTL Roman foreign policy didn't tend to be all that bothered as to which denomination vassal and allied states followed, as long as it was recognisably Christian and not one of the two persona-non-grata sects of Arianism and Nestorianism.