Auto Industry in Tsarist Russia

[shinblam]

Or rather, car nuts of AH.com, help me build an auto industry in a surviving tsarist Russia.

Because you can't build an auto industry in a vacuum, let me layout some background for the world I'm imagining.

Basically the world is vaguely similar to @johnboy's entertaining Consequences of an Errant Shell. In which the Tsarist regime survives but morphs into a constitutional monarchy with a foreign policy that is not completely antithetical to the West. WWI was still rough, as it was on all of Europe, but we avoid the death toll of the revolution, purges, famine, and a lot of OTL WWII. By the end of the 20th century Poland, the Baltics, the Caucasus, all the Stans but Kazakhstan, Manchuria, and East Turkestan are all independent with varying economic ties to Petrograd. Other differences to the political map include a more stable middle east and a republican China without Tibet. Specifics as to the politics and international affairs that got us to this world I want to leave vague in case I ever get around to making a proper timeline.

Specifically what I'm looking to accomplish with this thread is to have a place to brainstorm what Russia's auto industry would look like in this world. Who might we see become the grandfathers of the industry? What types of vehicles might we see become popular in this much freer market? How much penetration would Russian vehicles achieve in international markets that are far more mature worldwide than OTL? What would these fictional companies be called? ETC...

I've been able to find only very little information as to what the pre-Great War auto industry looked like in Russia. There seems to have been a few manufactures knocking around, such as, Russo-Balt, Puzryryov, and Lessner. There seems to only be any real information on Russo-Balt, however. At least online.

Anyways, I look forward to seeing what we can come up with. Also, ask me any worldbuilding questions that might help clear something up pertaining to the discussion.

 

[Masked Grizzly]

Am admittingly ignorant on the Russian Auto Industry, would recommend the following books that will help lay the groundwork for such a scenario.

Russian Motor Vehicles: The Czarist Period 1784 to 1917 by Maurice A. Kelley, the same author also write a part 2 of sorts set in the Soviet period called Russian Motor Vehicles: Soviet Limousines 1930-2003.

Another book that might be helpful despite being set in the Soviet period is Cars of the Soviet Union by Andrew Thompson, since the conditions of Tsarist Russian roads would likely be roughly similar to OTL and thus initially at least require durable vehicles as in OTL.

 

[shinblam]

Am admittingly ignorant on the Russian Auto Industry, would recommend the following books that will help lay the groundwork for such a scenario.

Russian Motor Vehicles: The Czarist Period 1784 to 1917 by Maurice A. Kelley, the same author also write a part 2 of sorts set in the Soviet period called Russian Motor Vehicles: Soviet Limousines 1930-2003.

Perfect, I'm going to look them up.

Another book that might be helpful despite being set in the Soviet period is Cars of the Soviet Union by Andrew Thompson, since the conditions of Tsarist Russian roads would likely be roughly similar to OTL and thus initially at least require durable vehicles as in OTL.

Agreed. I'm also thinking we might see Russian manufacturers pioneer and push all-wheel drive more than builders from other nations. 4WD has been around since the beginning, and I could easily see free range Russian engineers playing with it extensively out of necessity and, eventually, bragging rights. Not to mention it's a fun thought.

Another thought I had was having some Russian aristocrat with an interest in motor-vehicles taking a shine to Spyker early on and inviting them to open up a second shop in his home country. Maybe we see them use local talent overseen by their engineers with extra funding from Russian investors. This might get us a Spyker that survives past 1926. They were also playing round with 4WD as early as 1903 on their 60HP racer, so it ties in nicely.

 

[Coiler]

I've done a few sketchups (and simulations in the Automation Game) of cars in (this case, an earlier, more liberalized semi-Soviet) Russia. Small, somewhat cheaper, off-road friendly cars with 4WD that (as a quirk that probably isn't realistic) cling to big I4s based on the Model A engine for too long.

 

[KACKO]

There were few car manufactureres I believe and few factories were planned for 1917 to increase home production. If not revolution they would be big boost to Russian car and truck manufacturing.

 

[shinblam]

I've done a few sketchups (and simulations in the Automation Game) of cars in (this case, an earlier, more liberalized semi-Soviet) Russia. Small, somewhat cheaper, off-road friendly cars with 4WD that (as a quirk that probably isn't realistic) cling to big I4s based on the Model A engine for too long.

Yep. I'm checking out that game.

But yeah, I was leaning towards that as the core of the market(much like how large, powerful, cars have been the core of the American market). Naturally, there would be significant variation from that. Russia has never had a lack of capable engineers, and I want to use that in this worldbuilding.

There were few car manufactureres I believe and few factories were planned for 1917 to increase home production. If not revolution they would be big boost to Russian car and truck manufacturing.

Indeed, and one of them became ZiL. Now that I have some potential sources I'm going to see if I can find more information on these early factories.

 

[Masked Grizzly]

Agreed. I'm also thinking we might see Russian manufacturers pioneer and push all-wheel drive more than builders from other nations. 4WD has been around since the beginning, and I could easily see free range Russian engineers playing with it extensively out of necessity and, eventually, bragging rights. Not to mention it's a fun thought.

Another thought I had was having some Russian aristocrat with an interest in motor-vehicles taking a shine to Spyker early on and inviting them to open up a second shop in his home country. Maybe we see them use local talent overseen by their engineers with extra funding from Russian investors. This might get us a Spyker that survives past 1926. They were also playing round with 4WD as early as 1903 on their 60HP racer, so it ties in nicely.

Not quite sure about having 4WD that early, it seems more likely to be they would embrace conventional front-engined RWD until 4WD is properly developed sometime after the ATL equivalent of WW2. Do like the idea of typical Russian vehicles featuring large 4-cylinder engines likely derived from larger 6-cylinder units, perhaps with IOE and maybe even Air-Cooling.

One question that comes to mind is that given this is Tsarist Russia what would likely be the Russian equivalent of the Austin Seven, Fiat Topolino, Citroen 2CV and Volkswagen Beetle as a car to motorize the masses? If such vehicles are considered is it likely they would be smaller versions of ATL Russian cars featuring large 2-cylinder engines (maybe even the occasional large displacement 500cc+ Split-Single) or would the government impose punitive measures in establishing a 3-wheel vehicle category, leaving 4-wheelers initially for the mid/upper-classes?

Am also assuming other carmakers would look to establish factories and local marques in ATL Russia.

 

[Driftless]

There was some creative automotive thinking in Tsarist Russia. Adolphe' Kegresse designed a Half-Track Limosine for Tsar Nicholas. Not recommending that everyone has a half-track parked in their garage, just that un-conventional automotive thinking was used - even at the highest levels.

 

[Sheliak Lawyer]

As a corollary question what if the Soviet Car industry had been better/had a better product?

 

[shinblam]

Not quite sure about having 4WD that early, it seems more likely to be they would embrace conventional front-engined RWD until 4WD is properly developed sometime after the ATL equivalent of WW2. Do like the idea of typical Russian vehicles featuring large 4-cylinder engines likely derived from larger 6-cylinder units, perhaps with IOE and maybe even Air-Cooling.

I didn't mean to imply that 4WD would be mass market viable that early. Only highlighting that it was being looked at very early on and if Russian manufacturers decide that it's a viable path to pursue that we could potentially see AWD cars have a larger presence by the time the OTL Jensen FF comes around.

One question that comes to mind is that given this is Tsarist Russia what would likely be the Russian equivalent of the Austin Seven, Fiat Topolino, Citroen 2CV and Volkswagen Beetle as a car to motorize the masses? If such vehicles are considered is it likely they would be smaller versions of ATL Russian cars featuring large 2-cylinder engines (maybe even the occasional large displacement 500cc+ Split-Single) or would the government impose punitive measures in establishing a 3-wheel vehicle category, leaving 4-wheelers initially for the mid/upper-classes?

Since I despise laws as drastic as the Pons Plan and 3-wheel cars I'm going to go ahead and say that we do not see such punitive measures. I do think that you're right about what an early Russian mass market car could look like. Something simple and robust that doesn't necessarily have to break any new technological ground compared to it's contemporaries, but will last forever and is as much a mechanic's dream to work on as a powered soup-can can be.

Am also assuming other carmakers would look to establish factories and local marques in ATL Russia.

I see this as a given. The Russian market ATL is going to be a big one. If we imagine a population of around 200 to 250 million at first world economic levels we're looking at a market, once it kicks off, second only to the US until maybe China and India start to really get into the game.

There was some creative automotive thinking in Tsarist Russia. Adolphe' Kegresse designed a Half-Track Limosine for Tsar Nicholas. Not recommending that everyone has a half-track parked in their garage, just that un-conventional automotive thinking was used - even at the highest levels.

I certainly like the idea of a book on automotive history riddled with weird one-offs from the great Russian steppe.

 

[marathag]

Russia was later than other countries to take up the automobile and it is only in the last few years that its use has become general. Our reliability trials of 1910, 1911 and 1912 for the Emperor’s prize finally exploded the idea that the Russian roads are unsuitable for automobiles and showed that the country possesses a fine system of excellent highways. These trials also induced the rural population to take an interest in automobiling.


We are convinced that the American cars should suit the Russian demand as there is a great similarity in the automobiling conditions of the two countries. Our vast grain-producing steppes, peopled with landowners and farmers, dependent altogether on horses for means of locomotion, should prove an excellent market for cars and especially for American cars, as in these districts it is noticed that the light and powerful American cars negotiate the sandy tracks quite satisfactorily when the heavier European car finds difficulty in getting through. Unfortunately, up to the present time, the Russian customer has had little opportunity of judging what a really good American car is as few American firms are represented here.

Dr. W. Swetchine, Aide-de-camp to the Emperor and vice-president of the Imperial Automobile Club

In 1911 3,851 foreign cars were imported to Russia, and Ford had opened an office in 1907. Demand was not yet there, so no offers for local assembly plants at this time.

Now in the American Midwest at that point, it was true, both Iowa/Nebraska was either a sea of mud, dust choked trails, or ice and snow the remainder of the year, just like western Russia/Ukraine
Iowa didn't have a single paved road between cities until 1918most were unsurfaced dirt, but there were some gravel surfaced trails.

But Autos were very popular in Iowa. In 1907 from 1945 cars and trucks were registered to 1914 to 106,087, of which around 38,000 were Fords
Iowa was 6th in the nation, with New York leading with 168,223 registered. Wisconsin was 9th at 53,160

 

[Viriato]

I found some figures from both 1908 and 1913, and while France had the early lead, the vast majority were luxury cars, Renault for instance was a luxury marque. By 1913, Germany dominated and seems to keep with the fact that over half of Russia's imports came from Germany. France accounted for 4% of all imports, while the U.S. had jumped to third place with 6%.

I imagine with few Russians having purchasing power that luxury marques being imported would dominate the marketplace. A growing middle class might be interested in products by Ford, as they dominated the international marketplace during the 1920s. Opels from Germany and Fiats from Italy along with Skodas from Czechoslovakia seemed to do well in the export market of the 1930s. You might have the Russian government force the companies to assemble cars locally from Complete Knockdown Kits with a percentage of local components required. The easiest would be to have glass, tires, interiors and wheels initially produced locally to meet such requirements. Ford would be the best poised to undertake such an endeavour, General Motors assembling products from America along with Opels and Vauxhalls too. Fiat would be another company I can see investing in a Russian plant, or partnering with the Russian government as they did with Spain to form SEAT, along with Poland and Bulgaria etc.

The importance of being able to be tough for unpaved roads might make cars like the Land Rover and the weather would obviously make American cars along with Swedish marques, particularly Volvo popular.

Value of Imports Below

1908
France $652,167
Germany $415,548
Italy $55,102
USA $37,243
UK $4,137

1913
Germany $4,332,116
France $1,263,750
UK $558,703
USA $484,913
Italy $385,923

 

[Masked Grizzly]

Perhaps an existing or aspiring Russian carmaker and more could even sign licensing agreements with Austin or Morris to build localized variants of the Austin Seven and pre-war Morris Minor / Morris Eight respectively?

BMW for example after acquiring Dixi and thus the rights to built the Seven-based car as the BMW Dixi, used the tooling of the sidevalve Austin Seven engine to create a new OHV engine in the BMW 3/20 that interestingly enough would share the same bore and stroke as the pre-war 6-cylinder BMW M78 units. The pre-war Morris Eight's engine meanwhile was essentially a copy of the Ford Model Y, with both engines likely having similar potential for enlargement as was the case in OTL where the post-war Ford Taunus P1 was powered by a 1.5 OHV version of the Ford Model Y engine.

Basically Russian engineers would be able to use the tooling and mechanicals from licensed built cars as a means of eventually developing their own in-house designs, though it would be largely dependent on how skilled the Russians are likely to be in OTL as it might entail significant investment if it is not the case.

 

[Chris Triangle]

Perhaps an existing or aspiring Russian carmaker and more could even sign licensing agreements with Austin or Morris to build localized variants of the Austin Seven and pre-war Morris Minor / Morris Eight respectively?

BMW for example after acquiring Dixi and thus the rights to built the Seven-based car as the BMW Dixi, used the tooling of the sidevalve Austin Seven engine to create a new OHV engine in the BMW 3/20 that interestingly enough would share the same bore and stroke as the pre-war 6-cylinder BMW M78 units. The pre-war Morris Eight's engine meanwhile was essentially a copy of the Ford Model Y, with both engines likely having similar potential for enlargement as was the case in OTL where the post-war Ford Taunus P1 was powered by a 1.5 OHV version of the Ford Model Y engine.

Basically Russian engineers would be able to use the tooling and mechanicals from licensed built cars as a means of eventually developing their own in-house designs, though it would be largely dependent on how skilled the Russians are likely to be in OTL as it might entail significant investment if it is not the case.

Yes, much as Japan did with a number of British designs.

I don't see why there wouldn't be tremendous investment in such a huge and growing market. I'd bet France, with its strong automotive industry, would be the biggest one at first, as it often was.

 

[shinblam]

Snip

Good info! Thanks.

This is mostly in line with what I was thinking. Early on you'd see most imports being high-end as that's where the money is. What did the immediate pre-war russian middleclass look like? I could see a scenario where you'd have larger markets for luxury and cheaper cars while the middle market is somewhat smaller relative to other nations.

Perhaps an existing or aspiring Russian carmaker and more could even sign licensing agreements with Austin or Morris to build localized variants of the Austin Seven and pre-war Morris Minor / Morris Eight respectively?

BMW for example after acquiring Dixi and thus the rights to built the Seven-based car as the BMW Dixi, used the tooling of the sidevalve Austin Seven engine to create a new OHV engine in the BMW 3/20 that interestingly enough would share the same bore and stroke as the pre-war 6-cylinder BMW M78 units. The pre-war Morris Eight's engine meanwhile was essentially a copy of the Ford Model Y, with both engines likely having similar potential for enlargement as was the case in OTL where the post-war Ford Taunus P1 was powered by a 1.5 OHV version of the Ford Model Y engine.

Basically Russian engineers would be able to use the tooling and mechanicals from licensed built cars as a means of eventually developing their own in-house designs, though it would be largely dependent on how skilled the Russians are likely to be in OTL as it might entail significant investment if it is not the case.

Agreed. Something like this would be needed to really kick off the industry. As @Chris Triangle said, the ATL Russian market is going to be a large one, and I like the idea of the French getting a foot in early on. Especially as the two nations are close allies at this point.

My idea is that, after the war, the monarchy is going to be very concerned with pleasing it's subjects as there will be significant unrest even with ATL's pre-war reforms. This will, in turn, lead to policies that begin to improve the lot of most Russians. Would the lower end market form faster than the mid-market? Or was there enough of a middleclass that it might develop along the lines of other European nations?