Austria collapsing after 1866

[Mikestone8]

Yeah I don't see Prussia pressuring for Dobruja for Romania. Romania will and it needs Alexander II goodwill and his desire to fight the Ottomans. Although Romanian claims on Dobruja are pretty... debatable. They got as a compensation in 1878. Not sure what Czar Alex would want? Get what he asks or try for more?

I was responding to a suggestion that Wilhelm might give diplomatic backing to Russia to reclaim the bit of Bessarabia she lost in 1856. Should this happen, I assume he would want some compensation for Charles of Rumania, who is a member of his House. But of course the whole thing may not arise should Alexander, for whatever reason, not choose to bring it up an this juncture. After all, he didn't in 1870, preferring just to denounce the Black Sea clauses of 1856.

 

[Vanity 6]

Would be interesting if Prussia found itself reconstituting a version of the Habsburg Monarchy out of necessity. It doesn’t want to be the hegemon of Eastern Europe, but it doesn’t want Russia there either. What to do?

German Empire proclaimed 1867.

Galicia and Bukovina are transferred to Russia.

Prussia defends Trentino and Trieste against Italy—this is a point of German pride.

Austria and Bohemia, Hungary and Croatia form a triple monarchy under the Habsburgs. It’s looser than Austria-Hungary, however. Closer to a Norway/Sweden situation. This entity is basically Finlandized. Ostensibly independent but closely tied to Germany. It experiences a cultural and economic resurgence in the following decades. It has a passive policy toward the Balkans.

 

[Ariosto]

Even a haughty big sister is still a sister. And without Austria Hungary is vulnerable to internal and external pressure. Why would the Croats or Romanians accede to Hungary when they could side with Germany or Russia to gain their own advantage? And which boot is worse for Hungary? The Tsar’s or the Kaiser’s? I’m guessing the Kaiser is who they choose. That at least gives them the semblance of independence. But at what price?

• The Germans would be the only natural ally for the Hungarians given it was the Russian military that was largely responsible for suppressing the Hungarian Revolution.
• This Prusso-Austria would not be nearly as inclined at establishing interests in the Balkans region as Austria-Hungary was, at least not immediately. That said there would be member concerns on ceding additional lands to countries like Romania or Serbia which were in the Russian Empire's sphere, on top of the cession of Galicia-Lodomeria.
• I never did touch on Croatia, and that touches on a number of questions itself given they take a considerable amount of punishment. The Dalmatian Kingdom would at least in my gamed scenario have been ceded to Italy, whereas Croatia-Slavonia would have been united again with the Hungarian Kingdom. Such a settlement would be important for keeping the Hungarians on side as it would form their only outlet to the sea, and a Croatian State could prove destabilizing in the region depending on what form it took territorially; a planned revolt in the region (known as the Rakovica Revolt) would likely have kicked off earlier and, by joint suppression of German-Hungarian-Italian forces, would have put the remaining Croatians in an awkward negotiating position. At the same time, the political elite in Germany would desire some sort of solution be found that would keep most of the Croatian population mollified. Possibly a similar deal is reached between the Croatians and the Hungarians where the Croatia-Slavonia is given a significant amount of autonomy within the Hungarian Kingdom, much as historically occurred.
• Having read up on Croatia for the purpose of answering this query, I have come up with two other points of note in regards to the make-up of the Hungarian Kingdom.
  • The Grand Principality of Transylvania would not have been abolished, instead remaining autonomous in much the same way as Croatia. Desiring a degree of guaranteed German influence in the Hungarian Kingdom, there would be considerable pressure within Germany to make sure their kin are not disadvantaged under any new arrangement. Also, while Union with Romania would not be politically desired by most involved, there would be pressure on the part of Russia to avoid direct integration of the region into Hungary proper on the part of their Romanian allies.
  • Another Principality would likely have been established upon the original borders of the Serbian Voivodeship, for much the same reasoning as the Principality of Transylvania would be maintained; it guarantees the German minority a voice in their affairs, guarantees the Serbian and Romanian minorities a voice, etc.

 

[Vanity 6]

• The Germans would be the only natural ally for the Hungarians given it was the Russian military that was largely responsible for suppressing the Hungarian Revolution.
• This Prusso-Austria would not be nearly as inclined at establishing interests in the Balkans region as Austria-Hungary was, at least not immediately. That said there would be member concerns on ceding additional lands to countries like Romania or Serbia which were in the Russian Empire's sphere, on top of the cession of Galicia-Lodomeria.
• I never did touch on Croatia, and that touches on a number of questions itself given they take a considerable amount of punishment. The Dalmatian Kingdom would at least in my gamed scenario have been ceded to Italy, whereas Croatia-Slavonia would have been united again with the Hungarian Kingdom. Such a settlement would be important for keeping the Hungarians on side as it would form their only outlet to the sea, and a Croatian State could prove destabilizing in the region depending on what form it took territorially; a planned revolt in the region (known as the Rakovica Revolt) would likely have kicked off earlier and, by joint suppression of German-Hungarian-Italian forces, would have put the remaining Croatians in an awkward negotiating position. At the same time, the political elite in Germany would desire some sort of solution be found that would keep most of the Croatian population mollified. Possibly a similar deal is reached between the Croatians and the Hungarians where the Croatia-Slavonia is given a significant amount of autonomy within the Hungarian Kingdom, much as historically occurred.
• Having read up on Croatia for the purpose of answering this query, I have come up with two other points of note in regards to the make-up of the Hungarian Kingdom.
  • The Grand Principality of Transylvania would not have been abolished, instead remaining autonomous in much the same way as Croatia. Desiring a degree of guaranteed German influence in the Hungarian Kingdom, there would be considerable pressure within Germany to make sure their kin are not disadvantaged under any new arrangement. Also, while Union with Romania would not be politically desired by most involved, there would be pressure on the part of Russia to avoid direct integration of the region into Hungary proper on the part of their Romanian allies.
  • Another Principality would likely have been established upon the original borders of the Serbian Voivodeship, for much the same reasoning as the Principality of Transylvania would be maintained; it guarantees the German minority a voice in their affairs, guarantees the Serbian and Romanian minorities a voice, etc.

This is all quite likely and I agree. Prussia will be in the unenviable position of juggling the national rivalries of east-central Europe. Which is why I think they prop up the Habsburgs to oversee whatever hodgepodge they assemble in the region. Thinking there would have to be some kind of army and coordinated foreign and fiscal policy in place. Dual Monarchy Lite.

 

[Mikestone8]

This is all quite likely and I agree. Prussia will be in the unenviable position of juggling the national rivalries of east-central Europe. Which is why I think they prop up the Habsburgs to oversee whatever hodgepodge they assemble in the region. Thinking there would have to be some kind of army and coordinated foreign and fiscal policy in place. Dual Monarchy Lite.

That's pretty much how I see it too.

Small point. If Wilhelm I has got his way about acquiring the Sudetenland, does he also insist on recovering Ansbach and Bayreuth from Bavaria? Per Bismarck's memoirs this was something else the King felt strongly about.

This would leave a much more disgruntled Ludwig II who will take more persuading to join the German Empire. So Prussia may have to offer him a bigger bribe. Perhaps Alsace-Lorraine, instead of becoming a Reichsland, is split in two, with Bavaria getting the whole of Alsace while Prussia takes Lorraine. This in turn could cause Wilhelm to demand rather more of Lorraine than OTL (to increase Prussia's share) so that Longwy and Briey which Germany was so eager to acquire in WW1 may well be German right from day one.

Final thought. If Bayreuth is part of Prussia instead of Bavaria, does Wagner hold his festivals somewhere else? If so any thoughts on where?

 

[Ariosto]

This is all quite likely and I agree. Prussia will be in the unenviable position of juggling the national rivalries of east-central Europe. Which is why I think they prop up the Habsburgs to oversee whatever hodgepodge they assemble in the region. Thinking there would have to be some kind of army and coordinated foreign and fiscal policy in place. Dual Monarchy Lite.

The Habsburgs as a power would be spent, should Austria enter under a personal union with Prussia; the Hungarians would want nothing to do with them, memories of the 1848 Revolution still lingering amongst the citizenry at large, and Bohemia I figured would be given to another branch of the Hohenzollern family. No Independent Entity/State would result that would find a Hapsburg on the throne, as far as I figure. That said, it is probable that they would have been allowed to maintain their titles over Styria or Tirol, reduced to subservient Dukes or Counts.

Regarding the Hungarian Kingdom, if it is anything like what existed historically between Hungary and Croatia, it would mean a set of devolved Parliaments that would regulate local matters in each jurisdiction, with a national parliament managing foreign policy, international trade, defense, etc. The irony is that this would be far more functional then the Dual Monarchy, in that you'd not have competing governments which required unanimous consent to do anything. Elections to the Hungarian Parliament though could hardly ever be called liberal as the franchise was largely limited to the nobility, least their votes counted for far more, and gerrymandered to hell.

Wish I could make a proper map of what I'm envisioning here, but I haven't been able to find a proper base map to draw it up on.​

 

[xmoose]

I was responding to a suggestion that Wilhelm might give diplomatic backing to Russia to reclaim the bit of Bessarabia she lost in 1856. Should this happen, I assume he would want some compensation for Charles of Rumania, who is a member of his House. But of course the whole thing may not arise should Alexander, for whatever reason, not choose to
bring it up an this juncture. After all, he didn't in 1870, preferring just to denounce the Black Sea clauses of 1856.

What about Bukovina?
And realy, realy ASBshit crazy idea, what about union between Romania and Hungary (with Transylvania as condominium, maybe?) Hungary-Romania(-Croatia?) under Hohenzollern cadet branch could work as counterbalance against Russia (probably too well, one of reasons why it is ASB)
About Bohemia: if that became part of German empire (yup, another ASB idea), why not to give it to Wettins, while Saxony is annexed into Prussia?

 

[Drizzt]

It’s a dystopia for Prussia. I’m assuming Bohemia is annexed outright increasing the Catholic and Slavic populations. Bad news. Austria I guess is a constituent state of the new German Empire? And now this Hermany is wedged in between a vengeful France and an ambitious Russia.

You are aware the being wedged in between a vengeful France and an ambitious Russia is exactly the situation Germany found itself in OTL anyway? Annexing both Bohemia and Austria means proportionally more Catholics, but the percentage of Slavs does actually decrease compared to OTL. And given that it's highly doubtful the Kulturkampf will lead to an outright German collapse, adding those two extra provinces will lead to a stronger Germany in the long run.
Meanwhile they don't have rival ambitions to Russia in the Balkan like A-H had and Italy has no irredentist claim against Germany only against France.

 

[The Gunslinger]

You are aware the being wedged in between a vengeful France and an ambitious Russia is exactly the situation Germany found itself in OTL anyway? Annexing both Bohemia and Austria means proportionally more Catholics, but the percentage of Slavs does actually decrease compared to OTL. And given that it's highly doubtful the Kulturkampf will lead to an outright German collapse, adding those two extra provinces will lead to a stronger Germany in the long run.
Meanwhile they don't have rival ambitions to Russia in the Balkan like A-H had and Italy has no irredentist claim against Germany only against France.

With no Austria in the Balkans Russia is going to spend a lot more time and effort expanding that direction and Germany is going to get pulled in due to the giant shitstorm they caused from killing Austria. It might take a decade but Germany is going to find itself at odds with Russia over Serbia, Hungary, or the United Principalities.