ATLs that lead to OTL?

[thevaliant]

This is a bit of a strange thread, and more a thought exercise but some comments by colleagues got me thinking.

Can we reasonably think of situations with PODs that alter the course of history, perhaps in significant ways, that then can reasonably lead back to an ATL that looks pretty much like OTL?

As an idea of what I was thinking:
An ATL where Edward VIII isn't so much of a playboy/idiot and instead of getting involved with Wallis Simpson. He takes the throne, never marries and keeps to official royal duties and instead we see him reign until his death in 1972.

At which point, Elizabeth II ascends as her father is now dead.

By this point ATL 2011, it looks like to a lot of people that this ATL, and our OTL are pretty much the same. I'd be willing to bet that a good majority of the population in the UK (let alone the rest of the world) wouldn't spot if they were transferred from OTL to ATL overnight for a good few months. Some would never find out.


Any thoughts on the above, or ideas of other significant changes that can reasonably 'butterfly' back to something resembling OTL?

 

[SlideAway]

Yeah. It's called a second-order counterfactual. If it's a general pattern than the argument is that small shifts don't change the broad underlying factors that lead to an OTL outcome.

 

[January First-of-May]

This is a bit of a strange thread, and more a thought exercise but some comments by colleagues got me thinking.

Can we reasonably think of situations with PODs that alter the course of history, perhaps in significant ways, that then can reasonably lead back to an ATL that looks pretty much like OTL?

As an idea of what I was thinking:
An ATL where Edward VIII isn't so much of a playboy/idiot and instead of getting involved with Wallis Simpson. He takes the throne, never marries and keeps to official royal duties and instead we see him reign until his death in 1972.

At which point, Elizabeth II ascends as her father is now dead.

By this point ATL 2011, it looks like to a lot of people that this ATL, and our OTL are pretty much the same. I'd be willing to bet that a good majority of the population in the UK (let alone the rest of the world) wouldn't spot if they were transferred from OTL to ATL overnight for a good few months. Some would never find out.


Any thoughts on the above, or ideas of other significant changes that can reasonably 'butterfly' back to something resembling OTL?

It depends on the definition (and level) of "resembling OTL".
As it happens, most "transferred into ATL overnight"-type scenarios take place in an ATL of this type, pretty much for this exact reason. (Stuff like Sliders, basically.)
Pasha, Schwartz Mirotvor, or however you know him (and you probably don't, unfortunately, as he writes in Russian), liked to write stories of such type. In one of his stories, the POD was before the American Revolution, the area that is now USA got divided between the British colonies and the eventually-independent French ones... and in 1861, the American Civil War still started on schedule, and General Robert Lee (French, of course, so maybe the surname was spelled a little differently, hard to say when everything is in a Russian transliteration) still joined his homeland in the South - it being, IIRC, OTL Pennsylvania, as Virginia was still under the British. In another, the POD was in the first century AD, yet other than minor references generally thrown about, everything else was the same as OTL (it really looked like some thing from Sliders)...


...So what, how?
January First-of-May

 

[Swan Station]

I could see a multitude of these happening with some simple cosmetic changes.

A corporation which somehow gets a different name, but still has the same beliefs/practices/management... there's no reason this would change history. (for example, a Walmart named Walton's, a McDonald's named KrocBurger, etc.) For that matter, if Joe Kennedy had decided to name his second son Patrick instead of John, would that have changed John's politics or life at all? Okay, to small extents perhaps, but it's tough to argue.

Same goes for emblems, flags, titles, etc.

Another possibility: minor border changes in remote areas. If the Kentucky Bend were somehow ceded over to Tennessee, how much history would that change (okay, I guess Twain wouldn't have written about it in Life on the Mississippi).

 

[The Vulture]

Butterfly effect says no.

 

[B_Munro]

I'd agree with Vulture. Small changes can have big effects over time, and there will be a lot of minor changes arising. To perhaps be a bit NSFW, if Joe Kennedy had even a tiny change in the scheduling of his day, he quite likely would have had sex with his wife a few minutes sooner or later, or/and in a slightly different position, and the particular sperm and ovum that came together OTL to make John would never meet, and they would have had a different boy or equally likely a girl. The general trend of history will be the same if there is no scandal and abdication: there still will be a WWII and most likely a Cold War after it (Hitler is still a dick, Stalin likewise) but the younger population will be quite different by 2010: the TV shows will be different, the books and music will be different, fashions won't be the same.

The Soviet Union probably still collapses, but the details of how that happens may be very different. Osama Bin Laden may or may not be born in 1957, but the details of his life are probably different enough that he doesn't direct an airborn assault on the US in 2001 (although some other pissed off arab might: Israel has excellent prospects of existing, and that plus the need for oil means the US will inevitably be poking its nose into Mid-East affairs). A broadly recognizable 2011 I'd buy: one the visitor wouldn't rapidly notice as different, I wouldn't.

Bruce

 

[B_Munro]

Now, this can be taken too far: if Yeak Mapu the New Guinea witch doctor decides to sleep in May 17, 1955 rather than get an early start on his spirit-cleansing rounds, we do not necessarily end up with president Michael Moore.

Bruce

 

[Finn]

I think a better idea is to come up with scenarios that resemble OTL superficially. For example, a timeline with a POD in the 1960s that has an identical political map to OTL but would immediately present a very different situation on the ground for a crosstime explorer.

 

[Solomaxwell6]

Butterfly effect says no.

Not necessarily. For big changes, sure. For minor itty bitty things? Maybe, maybe not. Let's say that in one TL, my computer keyboard is shifted half a micron to the left compared to its normal position. Will anything change? Probably not. Maybe it'll slightly shift gas particles by some more or less negligible amount. Maybe those shifted gas particles will create a big enough effect that when a hypothetical wife and I decide to have a kid in a few years, a slightly different sperm pops out and I get some kid with Aspergers instead of a future president. But is that likely? No.

 

[B_Munro]

Not necessarily. For big changes, sure. For minor itty bitty things? Maybe, maybe not. Let's say that in one TL, my computer keyboard is shifted half a micron to the left compared to its normal position. Will anything change? Probably not. Maybe it'll slightly shift gas particles by some more or less negligible amount. Maybe those shifted gas particles will create a big enough effect that when a hypothetical wife and I decide to have a kid in a few years, a slightly different sperm pops out and I get some kid with Aspergers instead of a future president. But is that likely? No.

Strawman! Na na na na na na na na STRAWMAN!

Bruce

 

[Elfwine]

I think it would be possible, but it depends on what kind of "small" we have in mind and what kind of "recognizable".

For instance, the infamous for want of a nail - a nail is "small", but it would matter if the shoe is lost because of the lost nail and thus the messenger's horse is lame and then the message is late. This is classic AH material for a reason.

On the other hand, the only thing that typing this rather than starting work on my paper now will change is how much time I have to write an essay for my English class.

Butterflies? Hard to tell how much difference it would make. But you probably don't cause the world to be unrecognizable by eliminating Tolkien. (Say he gets killed in WWI)

On the other hand, to say that it wouldn't be recognizably different is also just plain not true - anything influenced by him would not exist, or exist in a form influenced by something else. And the things they influenced are also different until eventually another fork is taken. Maybe not by the present (2010), but sooner or latter.

That probably doesn't extend to having Saddam Hussein* be a democratic leader or Israel not existing, however.

Edward VIII (being King-Emperor if nothing else) being rather more significant than Tolkien, Elizabeth II* would not be like OTL's Elizabeth II, and the state of the world in general probably sees some differences - depending on what he does, potentially enough to make it very much unlike OTL.

 

[Snake Featherston]

This is a bit of a strange thread, and more a thought exercise but some comments by colleagues got me thinking.

Can we reasonably think of situations with PODs that alter the course of history, perhaps in significant ways, that then can reasonably lead back to an ATL that looks pretty much like OTL?

As an idea of what I was thinking:
An ATL where Edward VIII isn't so much of a playboy/idiot and instead of getting involved with Wallis Simpson. He takes the throne, never marries and keeps to official royal duties and instead we see him reign until his death in 1972.

At which point, Elizabeth II ascends as her father is now dead.

By this point ATL 2011, it looks like to a lot of people that this ATL, and our OTL are pretty much the same. I'd be willing to bet that a good majority of the population in the UK (let alone the rest of the world) wouldn't spot if they were transferred from OTL to ATL overnight for a good few months. Some would never find out.


Any thoughts on the above, or ideas of other significant changes that can reasonably 'butterfly' back to something resembling OTL?

Depends on what "resembling OTL" means. Is it possible to have a POD in the 11th Century that leads 1,000 years later to the wealthiest states being liberal democracies in Western Europe and North America? Yes. Any resemblance would be that vague or vaguer. After all, that POD in the 11th Century may end up having Russia be the center of democracy and England ruler of the backwards, savage autocracy.

 

[Snake Featherston]

I think it would be possible, but it depends on what kind of "small" we have in mind and what kind of "recognizable".

For instance, the infamous for want of a nail - a nail is "small", but it would matter if the shoe is lost because of the lost nail and thus the messenger's horse is lame and then the message is late. This is classic AH material for a reason.

On the other hand, the only thing that typing this rather than starting work on my paper now will change is how much time I have to write an essay for my English class.

Butterflies? Hard to tell how much difference it would make. But you probably don't cause the world to be unrecognizable by eliminating Tolkien. (Say he gets killed in WWI)

On the other hand, to say that it wouldn't be recognizably different is also just plain not true - anything influenced by him would not exist, or exist in a form influenced by something else. And the things they influenced are also different until eventually another fork is taken. Maybe not by the present (2010), but sooner or latter.

That probably doesn't extend to having Saddam Hussein* be a democratic leader or Israel not existing, however.

Well, for instance, if one or more of Hitler's siblings who died of the usual infant mortality rates lives but Adolf dies, that still leaves *a* Hitler who'd be the only surviving son/daughter of Klara and Alois but there'd be no guarantee in the least that that Hitler's career would resemble the OTL one.

Similarly if William I is able to invade before Harald Hardraada with sufficient time for Harold Godwinson to defeat him and rest afterward due to a slight shift in the wind.....1066 would be the Year of Two Invasions, not the Year of Hastings.

 

[Elfwine]

Well, for instance, if one or more of Hitler's siblings who died of the usual infant mortality rates lives but Adolf dies, that still leaves *a* Hitler who'd be the only surviving son/daughter of Klara and Alois but there'd be no guarantee in the least that that Hitler's career would resemble the OTL one.

Similarly if William I is able to invade before Harald Hardraada with sufficient time for Harold Godwinson to defeat him and rest afterward due to a slight shift in the wind.....1066 would be the Year of Two Invasions, not the Year of Hastings.

Quite true, thus the comment on the infamous horseshoe nail.

Using the second (because I know enough on the Middle Ages to assert this with some certainty, where as I know nothing on Hitler's family):
The world in 1100 may generally look like OTL, except for England, Normandy, and to a lesser extent France.

Some things will shift - no mass movement of Saxons to the Varangian Guard, but while that may matter, it may also be irrelevant. There will be others who will go instead and the same battles will occur for the same reasons.

But by the mid 14th century (start of the Hundred Years War OTL, in other words), the history of Europe will be vastly different than that of the What if William the Failure had become William the Conquerer? timeline.

Not to mention one you-wouldn't-think-of-it: You make a significant change to Kievan Rus by eliminating the marriage of one of Harold's daughters to a Prince of Rus, which almost certainly does not occur in the Year of Two Invasions world (no reason for it to).

 

[Snake Featherston]

Quite true, thus the comment on the infamous horseshoe nail.

Using the second (because I know enough on the Middle Ages to assert this with some certainty):
The world in 1100 may generally look like OTL, except for England, Normandy, and to a lesser extent France.

Some things will shift - no mass movement of Saxons to the Varangian Guard, but while that may matter, it may also be irrelevant. There will be others who will go instead and the same battles will occur for the same reasons.

But by the mid 14th century (start of the Hundred Years War OTL, in other words), the history of Europe will be vastly different than that of the What if William the Failure had become William the Conquerer? timeline.

Pretty much agreed on 1100. The failure of the attempt to conquer England would be the end of William's rule but 1066-1100 is not the end of Norman influence militarily. Anglo-Saxon England was not during the conquest irrevocably erased, much of the "Norman" legal code was a stricter consolidation of existing Saxon laws.

By the reign of Richard and John Lackland, OTOH, the political butterflies will be huge, as a Saxon monarchy would not have succession struggles over who gets what part of the Angevin Empire or necessarily interested in being the French King instead of the French King. Arguably this ends up strengthening, as opposed to weakening England as I can't imagine the absence of that intrigue hurting it overmuch.

By the start of the OTL Hundred Year's War those butterflies would be taking full flight. The butterfly's image may not be Mothra, but there are certain horseshoe nails that mean entire kingdoms never come to be, and there are other horseshoe nails that mean, for instance, that JRR Tolkien loses the bet and writes the equivalent of the Chronicles of Narnia where CS Lewis writes the story of the Lord of the Rings, featuring Teleporno and Galadriel helping Frodo Boffin against the treacherous Boromir.

 

[Elfwine]

Pretty much agreed on 1100. The failure of the attempt to conquer England would be the end of William's rule but 1066-1100 is not the end of Norman influence militarily. Anglo-Saxon England was not during the conquest irrevocably erased, much of the "Norman" legal code was a stricter consolidation of existing Saxon laws.

By the reign of Richard and John Lackland, OTOH, the political butterflies will be huge, as a Saxon monarchy would not have succession struggles over who gets what part of the Angevin Empire or necessarily interested in being the French King instead of the French King. Arguably this ends up strengthening, as opposed to weakening England as I can't imagine the absence of that intrigue hurting it overmuch.

By the start of the OTL Hundred Year's War those butterflies would be taking full flight. The butterfly's image may not be Mothra, but there are certain horseshoe nails that mean entire kingdoms never come to be, and there are other horseshoe nails that mean, for instance, that JRR Tolkien loses the bet and writes the equivalent of the Chronicles of Narnia where CS Lewis writes the story of the Lord of the Rings, featuring Teleporno and Galadriel helping Frodo Boffin against the treacherous Boromir.

What do you mean by it (the butterfly) not being Mothra?

Is there a reference I'm missing?

Otherwise, well put on all of this.

And now I want to read a timeline involving this. I'd say read or write, but my knowledge of England of this period is too feeble to do something worth reading - and my knowledge of the end of the Anglo-Saxon era is worse.

 

[Snake Featherston]

What do you mean by it (the butterfly) not being Mothra?

Is there a reference I'm missing?

Otherwise, well put on all of this.

And now I want to read a timeline involving this. I'd say read or write, but my knowledge of England of this period is too feeble to do something worth reading - and my knowledge of the end of the Anglo-Saxon era is worse.

It was a quote seen in the "Grant at Gettysburg" TL. It's one I liked so I shamelessly ganked it.

Same here with me, I'm afraid.

 

[Evan]

And now I want to read a timeline involving this. I'd say read or write, but my knowledge of England of this period is too feeble to do something worth reading - and my knowledge of the end of the Anglo-Saxon era is worse.

I recall reading one... Let me try to find it...

EDIT: Here it is: "These Hills Sing of Saxon Kings".

 

[Wendell]

Similarities may be possible, but the alternate history would never be so near convergent as suggested in the opening post of this thread. What we forget some times is that small changes can sometimes create larger ripples down the road.

 

[Elfwine]

I recall reading one... Let me try to find it...

EDIT: Here it is: "These Hills Sing of Saxon Kings".

Thanks. Now to find a way to read this and the other timelines I'm intending to read...