Fortunately, I'm agnostic, though I'd be also fortunate if I was buddhist, animist, shamanist, or even Jew or Muslim ... ^^For the love of God, please!!! May all the saints in heaven strike down the next person who mentions the term "Mongol" for the minimum of the next twenty chapters
If you don't want to speak of They-who-must-not-be-named, it would be way wiser to propose something else to discuss, to drive the debate's focus onto another subject, another topic, rather than praying, forbidding, censoring or cursing about They-who-must-not-be-named.
I have some trouble getting this Hungarian argument of sorts.Civil wars are a feature, not a bug. Waving THEM away is ignoring the context - Mongolia got so big, round around when they reached Hungary, that perpetual peace between the Khanates became impossible. In a period of relative calm the Mongols could still reach as far as Hungary, but when the calm falls away this ends.
And that is why you have castles - not to hold out forever in Samarkand in the midst of a sea of Mongols, but to hold out in the hills of Hungary or Palestine until the Mongols get called away to do something productive against a rival Khan.
First, that's the logistics that makes it the far end of possible Mongol expansion, then it is the Mongol civil wars.
I and others have put forwards that logistics were not that major obstacle to an expansion into Europe, and the role of internal infighting among the Mongols have been pointed at as a limiting factor.
But on that last argument, it's feeling as if you're saying there is a cause to effect link between reaching these faraway regions that are eastern Europe and Levant and the start of civil war between Khanates.
I'm definitely not waving away the context, but you're waving away the timing. The invasions of eastern Europe and Levant were lucky enough to the would be victims to coincide with internal strife at times where the context was right the one to spare further invasions. But alter the timing, move the invasions a few years back or a few years forward, delay or precipitate some deaths, and you get all different results.
This is nowhere near a cause to effect link, but just a correlation that can be easily broken. And that's all at this TL author's discretion.
The battle of Kalka river was in 1223, which followed an incursion into North Caucasus by the Mongols following their campaign in Persia (Gengis Khan was fighting at the Indus river in 1221) and Georgia (battle of Khunan in 1222), so they already had knowledge of the area, and the battle destroyed any serious opposition to their progression in the region.But there is no way for the Mongols to BE in Hungary in 1220, because Hungary (like Palestine) is on the tail end of the Steppe from Mongolia, hence it will always be one of the later locations they can invade.
This battle and the incursion into southern Russia were part of a three years ride of more than 5,500 miles, so Hungary may not have been so much of an unfeasible adventure by Subutai, not to mention the Mongols went in over two years from India to southern Ukraine.
Fortunately for the Hungarians, timing again didn't see Mongols returning in the area before another 15 years and by that time, Ogodei's death pending, the window of opportunity for a full scale invasion of Europe closed too fast. Advance the schedule only by 5 years, and I'd die from the suspense of how the invasion will turn out this time.