And All Nations Shall Gather To It - Volume I: The Abode of Peace

[LostInNewDelhi]

I still don't think this would turn into religious persecution and probably less ethnic persecution and more border lords competing. I know Armenian and Greek Christians had issues but I have never come across anything to indicate they had similar issues with Arameans or Assyrians, if anything they attribute their Christianity as coming from Assyrians so even less reasons for religious issues.

Sure, but Armenians and Greeks also frequently had to inhabit the same territory, whether in Byzantine Armenia or Armenian Cilicia-- there would be an actual reason for "issues" either over land or over the laws and their jurisdictions. There's no reason for "theology" (something most people are too illiterate to care about and which the literate don't usually allow to ruin their day) to cause issues until one day there is, no reason for a Crusade until the Turks take Jerusalem. A historically unprecedented situation-- and both "Georgian Assyria" and "Armenian Assyria" are equally unprecedented (well, if we don't count Tigran the Great)-- may lead to unprecedented actions as well. And from those actions may come disputes that are uniquely this timeline's own, with no OTL precedent, although based on analogous OTL situations.

The Bulgarians could attribute their religion as coming from the Greeks, but they still claimed (southern) Macedonia. The Serbs and Bulgarians, both Orthodox, fought over (northern) Macedonia. The Crusades TTL are creating a very Eastern Europe type environment. And while we can't exactly hold a randomized trial to determine if OTL East European history was the most likely outcome (we have just the one trial), a similar process of "rationalizing" a diverse place into several monoethnic homelands, with all its ugly consequences, may unfold in the new world the Crusades have created centuries into the future-- likely beyond the bounds of the TL, but still. It's not impossible for a polity that functions fine in the medieval era to later prefer a civil war to an accurate census-- a census assesses facts on the ground, but a civil war might change them.

With your example, I don't really know the region's history too well but I assume there was largely no ethnic issues and just a few Catholic-Orthodox issues due to historical bad blood than theology, bad blood that the Armenians and Assyrians don't have and with their migration being due to frontier depopulation, less likely to develop to a serious degree, like why start fights with people migrating into an utterly depopulated village when you yourselves have an entire country side to expand into for generations(and its not like their population growth rate was particularly rapid)?.

I assume the OTL Armenian-Assyrian overlap in the Diyarbakir area was minimal, and both had bigger problems. Once those bigger problems are gone-- well, then it could maybe make sense to fight over a depopulated village. Because all the territory involved here probably adds up to less than any three non-New-England US states, it's really not very much-- and this isn't a situation of free citizens purchasing small homesteads for them and theirs, but lords (old blood or newly elevated soldiers) hoping for the largest estates they can get away with-- and they can plug up the demographic gaps with Frank immigrants (a counterpart to the Transylvanian Saxons). It creates a very different kind of land hunger, and the demands of a war against the Mongols would necessitate the creation of a whole new social segment among the Armenian or Georgian population, many many new people learning the ways of war-- so that's very many people hungry not just for what satisfied them in their old life, but for the distinction that is the mark of the new life. Against this the Assyrians have 1) the claim of "that depopulated village was actually ours" and 2) their own hard won experience in war. And again, if the mutual enemy is gone, what reason does either side have to hold back?

There’ll probably be an agreement between the Assyrians and their new Christian overlords where in exchange for almost all discriminatory measures being knocked down they’ll contribute heavily to defense.

Vlach law - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Hungary at one point extended such rights to Romanians and then let them fall into disuse, while maintaining them for the Saxons and Szeklers. The Assyrians should take care not to be replaced in their role by Franks and other immigrants.

There's also the happy union of the Poles and Lithuanians, also founded on mutual defense, but that saw increasing numbers of Lithuanian nobility get Polonized, Vilnius turned into a majority Polish (well, Polish-Jewish) city. So even if they are safe, there may be a new incentive to stop being Assyrian and adopt some other identity.

I won’t be surprised if Greeks and Georgians still come to settle their lands but I imagine that Assyrians will remain a majority in their homeland this time. Most likely the Christian ethnicities will maintain good relations out of necessity.

The Assyrians will probably do better, but only if they can hold their protectors in check. They won't prosper on their neighbors' goodwill alone, because that goodwill is both unpredictable and finite.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Vlach law - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Hungary at one point extended such rights to Romanians and then let them fall into disuse, while maintaining them for the Saxons and Szeklers. The Assyrians should take care not to be replaced in their role by Franks and other immigrants.


The Assyrians will probably do better, but only if they can hold their protectors in check. They won't prosper on their neighbors' goodwill alone, because that goodwill may run out.

Agreed. I suppose the Assyrians have a lot of leverage at the moment due to their numbers but they do need to make sure to keep their bargaining strength.

 

[Quinkana]

Tbf considering the author does want the ERE to collapse does it the ERE will fight the Mongols? Since it'd break the empire if Anatolia is ravaged as it's the heartlands of the empire. The only good thing is that the Muslim states wouldn't be able to do anything because they're more fucked. Ittl I do hope we see like multiple Greek states in Anatolia try to coalese back into one and claim to be the ERE while the Balkans just get to be the Balkans.

Speaking of the Balkans, I'd really like to see groups like the Albanians hold more land in like Montenegro or even Serbia, and the Greek states in the Balkans to be weak and scattered which would be interesting.

There’ll probably be an agreement between the Assyrians and their new Christian overlords where in exchange for almost all discriminatory measures being knocked down they’ll contribute heavily to defense. I won’t be surprised if Greeks and Georgians still come to settle their lands but I imagine that Assyrians will remain a majority in their homeland this time. Most likely the Christian ethnicities will maintain good relations out of necessity.

In fact if there’ll be a Fourth Crusade before the Mongol invasions, I bet that it’ll be about the Assyrians.

History of the Assyrians - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I have read the medieval part of this article and the Assyrians had mixed views about the Crusaders in canon. I wonder how different the views are in this TL. Also there was a brief mention of persecution in the 13th century so I wonder if any attacks on Assyrian Christians would be enough to trigger a crusade. In my head canon I’m imagining Assyrian delegates secretly negotiating with Rhomanians, Georgians, and Crusaders over a possible crusade to take Assyria.

Personally I think as the region's get depopulated I could see a bunch of ppl like Armenians rushing in to repopulate the formerly Kurdish areas if the Armenians have great warlords which could pop up from Mongolian conquest. They'd adopt their war of warfare while adopting the best of the knights so things would be interesting.

PS: we won't get an independent occitan aren't we? I'd really like to see Occitania succeed ittl, especially if they get to have a settler colony somewhere.

 

[PecuTheGreat]

So even if they are safe, there may be a new incentive to stop being Assyrian and adopt some other identity.

Eh, Assyrian/Syriac identity has proven as if not more(given they're older) than Jewish identity so I don't see it getting absorbed by another.

Assyrians even maintain genetic distinctiveness to Arabs today, while their syriac Christian descendants in South Asia are endogamous and maintain genetic distinctiveness so I don't think they'll be getting absorbed anytime soon.

 

[PecuTheGreat]

Tbf considering the author does want the ERE to collapse does it the ERE will fight the Mongols? Since it'd break the empire if Anatolia is ravaged as it's the heartlands of the empire. The only good thing is that the Muslim states wouldn't be able to do anything because they're more fucked. Ittl I do hope we see like multiple Greek states in Anatolia try to coalese back into one and claim to be the ERE while the Balkans just get to be the Balkans.

Yeah, the Eastern Romans fragmenting (or straight up collapsing if the Mongols get constantinople) to the Mongols makes sense, if not the Mongols then some alt-Timur would make the perfect candidate(alt-Timur would have to be after the Mongols but frankly can look more like like the Ottomans but arising in the Zagaros than actual Timur, we just need the ravaging of Anatolia).

 

[Quinkana]

Yeah, the Eastern Romans fragmenting (or straight up collapsing if the Mongols get constantinople) to the Mongols makes sense, if not the Mongols then some alt-Timur would make the perfect candidate(alt-Timur would have to be after the Mongols but frankly can look more like like the Ottomans but arising in the Zagaros than actual Timur, we just need the ravaging of Anatolia).

Yeah we'd probably get an alt Timur but I'd think we'd get the Mongols smashing through Constantinople which shakes up the empire bad enough to never fully recover from it. We'd probably get done descendant states from Bithnyia, Ionia and Caria that reconquer Anatolia tho.

Would Russia be conquered by the Mongols too ittl, and hopefully ittl Khorazan actually gets repopulated by someone since it's a great place for farming (I could see ittl Cossack types doing it). Also what're the effects of the crusades on Asia ittl? We probably still would get an sengoku jidai, but hopefully ittl Japan doesn't close off so it can compete with Europe (I think colonisation would go differently ittl but ppl would still eventually discover America), and I could see Japan fighting the Europeans for control over the spice trade in SEA.

Tbf alt Timur and their children may not go and conquer India and create the mughal empire, which may cause SEA to be Hindu/Buddhist before colonisation.

 

[LostInNewDelhi]

Assyrians even maintain genetic distinctiveness to Arabs today, while their syriac Christian descendants in South Asia are endogamous and maintain genetic distinctiveness so I don't think they'll be getting absorbed anytime soon.

The easiest way to establish a genetically distinct population is endogamy-- a separate marriage pool means a separate gene pool. A colony of animals separated from another by a landslide or something will soon become "genetically distinct", although they may still be very similar. What's the threshold for distinctiveness-- one allele having a different frequency, maybe two?

And endogamy is an ideal of behavior, not always what is actually done-- if a person leaves the endogamous circle, nothing within the circle would tell you that (the person who left would leave an imprint on whatever community they enter). Death isn't the only way to leave the Assyrian community. To prove no one's ever opted out of being Assyrian you'd have to prove there's absolutely no Muslim or Hindu Iraqis or Indians with whatever markers are supposed to indicate Assyrianness.

I'll concede that Assyrian tradition, far older than the Lithuanian, may become its own reason to stay within the community-- but it alone won't suffice.

 

[LostInNewDelhi]

Would Russia be conquered by the Mongols too ittl, and hopefully ittl Khorazan actually gets repopulated by someone since it's a great place for farming (I could see ittl Cossack types doing it).

Khorasan or Khwarezm? Khorasan has been populated, Mashhad is one of Iran's biggest cities and Herat one of Afghanistan's. Khwarezm has also been populated, that's where the Sultanate of Khiva was-- it had and still has a sedentary urban and agricultural population of Turks and Persians, now "Uzbeks" (which may not have been what the Turks called themselves before Soviet nationality policy). No need for Cossacks really, these areas were never empty.

They were formerly under threat from the Turkmens, who scored some big hits against the last Khan of Khiva under Russian protection, but not anymore. Even that threat isn't so unique-- before the Turkmens it was Parthians and before them Scythians.

Japan doesn't close off so it can compete with Europe (I think colonisation would go differently ittl but ppl would still eventually discover America), and I could see Japan fighting the Europeans for control over the spice trade in SEA.

Tokugawa Ieyasu came to power by leading a revolt of clans that didn't participate as much in Hideyoshi's war of conquest, and so preserved enough strength after that failed conquest to overthrow the exhausted state Hideyoshi left behind. In other words, he led a ramshackle collection of 1990s Somalia warlords against a government whose great crime was trying to do something, and then failing. The obvious lesson is to not try anything, because if you fail someone else will win over your supposed friends, and then they'll cut your head off. Or, even worse, the powerful foreigners who taught you how to make guns might come to take advantage of this chronic weakness. And they might come with better guns.

Closing the country made sense given the circumstances created by the Sengoku period and the Imjin War (destroying the government and then destroying the army)-- historical people made mistakes, sure, but not everything we don't immediately understand was a mistake. You'd have to make it a not-sensible policy for it to not happen. And in large part the state and society with which 1800s Japan successfully conducted colonization was the product of two centuries of peace, orderly government and bureaucratization, dramatic and unprecedented growth of roads and cities, and ideological change under the Tokugawa. The resources which the Tokugawa conserved were well spent within Japan. The reality they created did not exist when they first came to power-- without the Confucianism they imported, it's hard to say if "Imperial restoration" would have the same ideology or unfold at all.

Now, where Europe differed from Japan is-- while states were being created and destroyed in wars and revolutions, joint stock companies like the EIC and VOC (well, really just them) could do their work without burdening the state. Whether the king had his head on or off, the companies could conserve and build up their own pools of resources, their own territories and armies, while drawing additional funding from stock sales to and borrowing from those private subjects with money to spare. If Japan's government could arrive at a similar mechanism for colonialism-on-autopilot, one that doesn't distract the state and its resources from the much more important job of rebuilding Japan, then something may be possible.

Tbf alt Timur and their children may not go and conquer India and create the mughal empire, which may cause SEA to be Hindu/Buddhist before colonisation.

Pretty sure Malacca, Aceh, and parts of Java were Muslim before the Mughals specifically, but there's nothing so far indicating the Delhi Sultanate exists-- and it may not reach all the way to Bengal, without which it would have no Indian Ocean presence. That might be significant but Arab and Chinese Muslim presence in the Indian Ocean may still be enough to contribute to SEA Islam.

Speaking of the Chinese Muslims, the two sources of that community were Arab and Persian visitors to the South China Sea putting down roots and marrying locals, and similar groups/similar activities on the western frontier with Central Asia. The sort of historical and ideological internal critique of Islam mentioned in the latest chapter may lead to unique characteristics in both these communities-- which in the Mongol Era enjoyed a peak of political prominence, Muslim officials made up the first government of Yunnan Province and established yet another Muslim community there. Zheng He was a Yunnan Muslim.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

I wonder how likely it could be that Georgia and Rhomania could be united under a native Georgian dynasty. It would be interesting seeing a union of these two kingdoms.

Also when the Crusaders take over Egypt I could see a possible profitable trade route through the Nile River connecting to Ethiopia. My guess is that the Crusaders convince the Christian Ethiopians to trade with them over the Muslims. Could have the effect of introducing coffee to Europe a lot sooner.

 

[LostInNewDelhi]

Also when the Crusaders take over Egypt I could see a possible profitable trade route through the Nile River connecting to Ethiopia.

Ethiopia and Egypt also both have Red Sea coasts (well, maybe its some vassal kingdom of whatever "Ethiopia" is at this time-- Tigray, Zagwe, Amhara/Solomonic, whatever). Egypt could get up to a lot of Portugal type raiding and burning (and then trying to bring all the business back, and probably succeeding) across the Indian Ocean, carry the Crusade out of the Med. From Aden to Malacca. The Italians might help them do it-- it's a way for Venice to stay relevant against Portugal and others. Egypt may also be able to disrupt the rise of Islam in Sudan, Nubia may even be the most Christian portion of their new empire-- but the Nubians are tied into the Coptic hierarchy.

Banu Kanz - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Edit: read the Egypt chapter, I see Kanz ad-Dawla is the lord of Upper Egypt. He may be able to retreat in good order to Sudan and retain sea links with the Fatimids in Yemen.

If Mecca is threatened, that's their problem. I wonder if you'd see a Muslim counterpart to the "Crusader order" as an institution cutting across national lines, identified with the duty of guarding the approaches to Mecca and Medina. In turn, I wonder if Portugal might here have an incentive to support Zaidi attacks against Egyptian Aden! England supported Persia against Portugal in the 1600s, these joint stock companies only had money on their mind.

Meanwhile even if Egypt tries to keep itself safe by sponsoring a conquest of Cyrenaica or the rest of North Africa, I don't know if that would be enough. The oasis network through the Sahara facilitated trade, but also the military activities of the Sufi zawiyas against the French and Italians. That network extends all the way to Siwa and Kharga, and influence from that direction may be a factor in Muslim peasant revolt (might not be a majority, but still a big portion maybe). But well, through revolt suppression, expulsion, and emigration...

 

[PecuTheGreat]

If Mecca is threatened, that's their problem. I wonder if you'd see a Muslim counterpart to the "Crusader order" as an institution cutting across national lines,

They already had similar enough systems in the Ghazis. Like Ghazis came all the way from Khorasan to support the Hamdanid attacks on the Eastern Romans during the reign of Basil II and Sayf al-Dulah(I might hv spelt that wrong). Now these didn't become like permanent orders like the Templers to the best of my knowledge and more joined a powerful warlord but they already had a quite similar system.

All that'll happen is that a Ghazi would form an army with a state with the casus belli of protecting the holy land and the abbasid caliph would give him some special title related to that and legitimize him. And he'll keep getting Ghazi fighters migrate to join him and monetary support for his dynasty's eternal Jihad.

 

[LostInNewDelhi]

Now these didn't become like permanent orders like the Templers to the best of my knowledge and more joined a powerful warlord but they already had a quite similar system.

Yeah, I hope they become permanent orders. Because then you get fun conspiracy theories down the line, or even conspiracy theories at the time-- like those ridiculous charges the French used to dissolve the Templars.

Problem is the Hejaz alone can't provision that many people, and the Red Sea through to Aden might be under Egyptian influence. It's going to take the cooperation of the Persians and the Najdis to keep it online... might be a tall order.

Or, we take the plunge into a truly post-Mecca Islam. Well-- people can still undertake the hajj to a Christian-controlled Mecca as long as the city (and the Hajj landmarks within and around it) still exist. But it's going to be a weird experience, crowd control probably means not many are even allowed to do it. Apocalyptic fervor? Certainly, and that may be enough for the Christians to leave eventually. But, if they stay long term, there's more than one way to do apocalyptism-- Protestantism consists of several ways. The Babists/Bahai, the Ahmadi-- they're not foaming at the mouth, but apocalypse is central to all of their thinking. All make a specific claim about the End Times and through it suggest a reading of history and a way to live here and now.

 

[Beatriz]

Crusader India.... one or more Latin states running colonies in areas where Christians are actually the majority might do it, but Tamil Nadu is a heartland of Hinduism - there eventually has to emerge a more religiously tolerant model than literal Crusades at some point - even if Christianity spreads beyond its OTL domain

 

[PecuTheGreat]

Problem is the Hejaz alone can't provision that many people, and the Red Sea through to Aden might be under Egyptian influence. It's going to take the cooperation of the Persians and the Najdis to keep it online... might be a tall order.

Well, while pan-Islamic military co-operation doesn't seem to have produced anything like the Crusades exactly in the past I think they have all the infrastructure and now, even reason as well to do such.

An official bureaucracy like the church to handle it would be good but even without that we can have the Abbasids as the intermediary to organize such and get some dynasties to agree to certain duties in exchange for prestige and official vassalage of the Hejaz Jihadis and support them OR maybe from that we can get an official Ghazi transnational bureaucracy going like something like the Iqta but instead of a lord getting the taxes for that land, it would be assigned to the Hejazi Ghazis, something like that and the taxes collected by a combination of bureaucrats working for the dynasty protecting the Hijaz and the dynasty that's the official suzreign of the Hejaz.

What do you think you can add to this system?.

Well-- people can still undertake the hajj to a Christian-controlled Mecca as long as the city (and the Hajj landmarks within and around it) still exist. But it's going to be a weird experience, crowd control probably means not many are even allowed to do it. Apocalyptic fervor? Certainly, and that may be enough for the Christians to leave eventually. But, if they stay long term, there's more than one way to do apocalyptism-- Protestantism consists of several ways. The Babists/Bahai, the Ahmadi-- they're not foaming at the mouth, but apocalypse is central to all of their thinking. All make a specific claim about the End Times and through it suggest a reading of history and a way to live here and now.

Bet 10 bucks the Portuguese or someone else just breaks the Qabba in one of the raids or something to show that Islam is false but the Qarramatians already occupied the place and stole the black stone before so I suspect that what will happen is that after that, supposed pieces of the black stone and its silver bindings would appear everywhere as relics. And a doctrine similar to Shia occultation would develop around the stone and Mecca. (Stone will miraculously heal and travel to Mecca at the end of days, or something; or the stone is hidden somewhere and trust me bros it is hidden underground in this tent behind my house and that's why I am a real Sultan, or something).

Or the Black stone and Kabba are relocated to Baghdad after several Crusader attempts scares them enough into that.

 

[PecuTheGreat]

Crusader India.... one or more Latin states running colonies in areas where Christians are actually the majority might do it, but Tamil Nadu is a heartland of Hinduism - there eventually has to emerge a more religiously tolerant model than literal Crusades at some point - even if Christianity spreads beyond its OTL domain

I think Italian style trade colonies are more likely there.

 

[LostInNewDelhi]

What do you think you can add to this system?.

The institutions within Hejaz would probably be as you suggest, but-- once Hejaz itself is exploited to the maximum, the next step is to retain links with the Indian Ocean-- that is where trade and aid will come from, one can imagine Aceh or Malacca making hefty contributions. Another thing is voluntary vs forced contribution-- the joint stock company allowed English and Dutch colonialism to be supported by both, instead of purely relying on taxes (Too much forced contribution wouldn't have been sustainable long term). The idea of a chartered corporation or some other collective voluntary trust could develop in the Islamic world, especially as "trust" becomes a more relevant legal concept with so many people leaving to defend distant lands, leaving their property behind to someone with a power of attorney.

This may mean conflict with Egypt on the Red Sea, which could even turn into Cold War esque proxy battles across India and SEA (a lot more interesting moments like the Cambodian monarch who converted to Islam or the Thai monarch suspected of converting to Christianity, both overthrown). Could that sort of conflict even make sense in a much less interconnected world, one that doesn't think of ideology the same way? Maybe. I guess rather than counting on "rebels" armed with AKs you'd try to convert the king by reaching him through his nobles... more Shah Kavad or Akhenaten type figures, in that they both set out to do a lot and fail. I guess in the end you wouldn't accomplish a lot of religious change, but South and East Asia would definitely feel one way or another about Christians and Muslims. Probably hate them both.

But really the more likely outcome is-- Egypt knows, or will soon learn, it can't really afford a long term Arabian campaign/occupation. But it can always attack, and after enough attempts it might break through to one of the Two Holy Cities. So, the Egyptians could pledge not to do that and not to bother Aden-- if the Hejaz pays a tribute. They could even dress it up-- that money is totally for the Amr b. al-As mosque guys (and it might actually go to that, it at least means Egypt doesn't have to spend on it). And now Egypt's working smarter not harder-- no eternal quagmire in Arabia or peasant revolts lighting up the Nile, just steady cash or in-kind payments from people who have no better option. In the event of non-compliance, Egypt could attack Jeddah or Ta'if to make their point. To hold up its end of the deal, Egypt may also prevent Portugal or anyone else from interfering-- the Red Sea is a matter for them and Hejaz alone.

Edit: and also the Fatimids in Yemen, yep. I wonder how they're getting along with whatever probably Fatimid-skeptic administration exists in Hejaz. At the very least Usama b. Munqidh is willing to criticize them for possibly killing the Mamluks' leader in Egypt, there's a lot to condemn them for. This might actually make the Zaidi Imamate in upland Yemen into an ally of Hejaz. Meanwhile Ismailism would have to live on through spite alone, blaming everyone except themselves for the Crusades. The Banu Kanz, if they remain active in Sudan, will probably be aware that Yemen can't help them that much. At this point they'll probably just go undercover throughout Africa and India as Sufis like they did in Iran and then just stay that way, leaving behind a heritage of forms and rituals rather than their actual ideology.

Stone will miraculously heal and travel to Mecca at the end of days, or something; or the stone is hidden somewhere and trust me bros it is hidden underground in this tent behind my house and that's why I am a real Sultan, or something

Well, the Stone isn't everything. The Hajj rituals involve many immovable parts of Mecca's geography like the Well of Zamzam. Or the Jamarats in Mina, for the stoning of the devil.

Even in the scenario of "no attacks on Mecca if there's tribute from Mecca", it's possible that the idea it's all under constant threat and could collapse any day finally leads to something like the attitudes that emerged in the OTL 1800s-- the Babist frustration with the inadequacies of the Qajar state and society, or the Ahmadis' attempt to cope with Christians seemingly being in ascendance everywhere in the world. Possessing an artifact after all doesn't make a government moral or effective. So in addition to "the Stone's here, or it's there" you might see a genuine "this isn't what's going to matter in the End Days, which we are living through." It's sort of like how, whatever world conquering zeal the Protestants developed later through empire and missionary activities, they started out with a deep suspicion of the concept of a Crusade. It's a "work" that Rome wants to take your money for, but that's where sola fide comes in-- there's no Jerusalem or Rome, you and God are all there is. Get right with God in the time you have left, and if the government wants to stop you, overthrow it. That's one way to justify a revolt against a pro-Abbasid government, I guess.

At the very least we should be wary of thinking a revanchist, essentially OTL modern "political Islam" is the only possible response. I'm sure the thought of Ahmad b. Hanbal will be influential, and Ibn Taymiya wasn't born before the POD but someone like him may emerge-- but still, political Islam was a response to secular, sometimes militantly secular, usually authoritarian, rule across the Arab world, Africa, Iran, and east of Persia (from Afghanistan to Indonesia). The Muslim governments of TTL may indulge in and transmit to their peoples a familiar form of revanche against the lords of Jerusalem, but they are (for the near future of TTL) not secular-- they are emphatically religious. So a response to them maybe could take the form of a "more" religious (whatever that means) movement that inherits the revanche (initially developed OTL by secular governments that promised to unite the Arab world, then turned into an Islamist talking point), but possibly also a movement willing to rethink revanche as the be-all-and-end-all of life and governance, especially in places very far from Jerusalem that have other concerns.

 

[PecuTheGreat]

The institutions within Hejaz would probably be as you suggest, but-- once Hejaz itself is exploited to the maximum, the next step is to retain links with the Indian Ocean-- that is where trade and aid will come from, one can imagine Aceh or Malacca making hefty contributions. Another thing is voluntary vs forced contribution-- the joint stock company allowed English and Dutch colonialism to be supported by both, instead of purely relying on taxes (Too much forced contribution wouldn't have been sustainable long term). The idea of a chartered corporation or some other collective voluntary trust could develop in the Islamic world, especially as "trust" becomes a more relevant legal concept with so many people leaving to defend distant lands, leaving their property behind to someone with a power of attorney.

This may mean conflict with Egypt on the Red Sea, which could even turn into Cold War esque proxy battles across India and SEA (a lot more interesting moments like the Cambodian monarch who converted to Islam or the Thai monarch suspected of converting to Christianity, both overthrown). Could that sort of conflict even make sense in a much less interconnected world, one that doesn't think of ideology the same way? Maybe. I guess rather than counting on "rebels" armed with AKs you'd try to convert the king by reaching him through his nobles... more Shah Kavad or Akhenaten type figures, in that they both set out to do a lot and fail. I guess in the end you wouldn't accomplish a lot of religious change, but South and East Asia would definitely feel one way or another about Christians and Muslims. Probably hate them both.

But really the more likely outcome is-- Egypt knows, or will soon learn, it can't really afford a long term Arabian campaign/occupation. But it can always attack, and after enough attempts it might break through to one of the Two Holy Cities. So, the Egyptians could pledge not to do that and not to bother Aden-- if the Hejaz pays a tribute. They could even dress it up-- that money is totally for the Amr b. al-As mosque guys (and it might actually go to that, it at least means Egypt doesn't have to spend on it). And now Egypt's working smarter not harder-- no eternal quagmire in Arabia or peasant revolts lighting up the Nile, just steady cash or in-kind payments from people who have no better option. In the event of non-compliance, Egypt could attack Jeddah or Ta'if to make their point. To hold up its end of the deal, Egypt may also prevent Portugal or anyone else from interfering-- the Red Sea is a matter for them and Hejaz alone.


Well, the Stone isn't everything. The Hajj rituals involve many immovable parts of Mecca's geography like the Well of Zamzam. Or the Jamarats in Mina, for the stoning of the devil.

Even in the scenario of "no attacks on Mecca if there's tribute from Mecca", it's possible that the idea it's all under constant threat and could collapse any day finally leads to something like the attitudes that emerged in the OTL 1800s-- the Babist frustration with the inadequacies of the Qajar state and society, or the Ahmadis' attempt to cope with Christians seemingly being in ascendance everywhere in the world. Possessing an artifact after all doesn't make a government moral or effective. So in addition to "the Stone's here, or it's there" you might see a genuine "this isn't what's going to matter in the End Days, which we are living through." It's sort of like how, whatever world conquering zeal the Protestants developed later through empire and missionary activities, they started out with a deep suspicion of the concept of a Crusade. It's a "work" that Rome wants to take your money for, but that's where sola fide comes in-- there's no Jerusalem or Rome, you and God are all there is. Get right with God in the time you have left, and if the government wants to stop you, overthrow it. That's one way to justify a revolt against a pro-Abbasid government, I guess.

Would be kind of nice if all of this snowballs into joint stock companies and many other financial concepts being invented first in the Islamic world due to all of this. This might make good fodder for a map game.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Ethiopia and Egypt also both have Red Sea coasts (well, maybe its some vassal kingdom of whatever "Ethiopia" is at this time-- Tigray, Zagwe, Amhara/Solomonic, whatever). Egypt could get up to a lot of Portugal type raiding and burning (and then trying to bring all the business back, and probably succeeding) across the Indian Ocean, carry the Crusade out of the Med. From Aden to Malacca. The Italians might help them do it-- it's a way for Venice to stay relevant against Portugal and others. Egypt may also be able to disrupt the rise of Islam in Sudan, Nubia may even be the most Christian portion of their new empire-- but the Nubians are tied into the Coptic hierarchy.

There were Muslim kingdoms around the Horn of Africa so maybe during this time the Christians were locked out of the coast? I really need more info about that.

 

[LostInNewDelhi]

There were Muslim kingdoms around the Horn of Africa so maybe during this time the Christians were locked out of the coast? I really need more info about that.

I tried looking it up myself and it's all very confusing. The king preceding the founder of the Solomonic dynasty is literally called "the unknown", possibly an attempt to eliminate him from memory. That was all in the mid or late 1200s, still in the future of the TL-- some centuries later there was a kingdom called Medri Bahri on the coast, it lost the coast to the Ottomans and was folded into Tigray in the 1800s. Meanwhile Muslims were supposedly present as deep inland as Shewa and very early in the second millennium AD, coming in through the Afar Depression. And the Red Sea coast was washed over by Beja and other peoples.

I'd say the TL can do what it wants here.

 

[Quinkana]

Khorasan or Khwarezm? Khorasan has been populated, Mashhad is one of Iran's biggest cities and Herat one of Afghanistan's. Khwarezm has also been populated, that's where the Sultanate of Khiva was-- it had and still has a sedentary urban and agricultural population of Turks and Persians, now "Uzbeks" (which may not have been what the Turks called themselves before Soviet nationality policy). No need for Cossacks really, these areas were never empty.

Sorry I meant Khwarezm. It's more that it never recovered after the Mongols unlike the other areas where there they did rebound.

Now, where Europe differed from Japan is-- while states were being created and destroyed in wars and revolutions, joint stock companies like the EIC and VOC (well, really just them) could do their work without burdening the state. Whether the king had his head on or off, the companies could conserve and build up their own pools of resources, their own territories and armies, while drawing additional funding from stock sales to and borrowing from those private subjects with money to spare. If Japan's government could arrive at a similar mechanism for colonialism-on-autopilot, one that doesn't distract the state and its resources from the much more important job of rebuilding Japan, then something may be possible.

I could see the Japanese adopting some practices of the VOC since Japan would have contact with the Dutch and Portuguese as they expand into SEA, but tbf the first few decades should be done with the goodwill of Japan's rulers. I could see Japan adopting secular ideologies like Confucianism while mixing it with western liberalism and democracy in the future.

Pretty sure Malacca, Aceh, and parts of Java were Muslim before the Mughals specifically, but there's nothing so far indicating the Delhi Sultanate exists-- and it may not reach all the way to Bengal, without which it would have no Indian Ocean presence. That might be significant but Arab and Chinese Muslim presence in the Indian Ocean may still be enough to contribute to SEA Islam.

It seems Islam spread through SEA from 1000-1500 AD, but considering the Muslim traders should be impacted by the crusades I could see Christianity spread through the region much earlier.