an Ottoman Empire that survives until WWII

[Osman Aga]

You seem to know a lot more about the subject than I do. Do you think the Ottomans would have conquered what became Saudi Arabia? They have a head start because they are already occupying the Hejaz.

Al Haasa was also Ottoman, along with Hedjaz. The interior was worthless and never prioritized other than supporting friendly tribes/dynasties.

Theoretically speaking this is possible. Without Hedjaz or Al Haasa, the interior is no good to be a nation like Jordan, let alone the UAE. But it depends on what Istanbul wants too.

 

[Osman Aga]

Butterflied away.
And If going by what @Osman Aga said, we have the added guarantee that three Pasha's would be deposed quite early.
So I am fairly confident to say that it won't happen.

Most Armenians would still live. Though their relationship with the Kurds would be least to say... quite a problem.

 

[Osman Aga]

Do you think Abbas II would still be replaced? Could be

Could be. No Ottoman participation gives him the time to stay for longer, hoping to rid Egypt and Sudan with British presence. He can't act pro-German if the Ottomans are not in war that dangers the Suez Canal or the option to cross it.

 

[Osman Aga]

What is your opinion about there still being a Greco-Turkish War ITTL? The difference is that the Ottoman Empire attacks Greece to get some of the territory that it lost to Greece in the Balkan Wars back. I'm thinking of Salonika and the territory that Greece got from Bulgaria in the Treaty of Neuilly.

There was a war risk in 1914 about the Aegean Islands. If the dreadnoughts arrived, WW1 participation would change to a Greco-Turkish War over the Eastern Aegean Islands.

If the Ottoman Empire accepted the incorporation of Western Thrace in 1913, a new Greco-Turkish War would be bigger as the Ottomans now have a land border and will desire a border including Selanik up to the Vardar River.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Al Haasa was also Ottoman, along with Hedjaz. The interior was worthless and never prioritized other than supporting friendly tribes/dynasties.

According to my World Crude Petroleum production spreadsheet (that runs from 1913 to 1969) Iraq started producing oil in 1927 and was producing 4 million long tons a year by 1936. Saudi Arabia didn't start production until 1937 but growth was rapid by the standards of the day and it produced 700,000 long tons of crude in 1939. Bahrein began producing petroleum in 1933 and a million tons were extracted in 1937. Kuwait didn't start until 1946, Qatar 1950, the Neutral Zone 1954 and Abu Dhabi 1962.

Theoretically speaking this is possible. Without Hedjaz or Al Haasa, the interior is no good to be a nation like Jordan, let alone the UAE. But it depends on what Istanbul wants too.

Will Istanbul want the Saudi oil? AIUI none of the Saudi oil fields are in what was the Hejaz. Are any of them in what was Al Haasa?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

But it depends on what Istanbul wants too.

Will Constantinople be renamed Istanbul ITTL?

So, take me back to Constantinople​

No, you can't go back to Constantinople​

Been a long time gone, Constantinople​

Why did Constantinople get the works?​

That's nobody's business but the Turks​

 

[Aghasverov]

You seem to know a lot more about the subject than I do. Do you think the Ottomans would have conquered what became Saudi Arabia? They have a head start because they are already occupying the Hejaz.

I'm not sure if they would've tried (or had the capacity to) occupy the entire Arabian Peninsula, excepting the British-protected areas which if they weren't suicidal they'd leave alone. One thing they could've done, barring WWI, would be to send more troops in to secure the Hejaz (VERY short-staffed) and prop up their allies/vassals in Jabal Shammar/Ha'il. The historic and sacred sites in Mecca and Medina, could they speak, would thank them profusely

 

[Aghasverov]

According to my World Crude Petroleum production spreadsheet (that runs from 1913 to 1969) Iraq started producing oil in 1927 and was producing 4 million long tons a year by 1936. Saudi Arabia didn't start production until 1937 but growth was rapid by the standards of the day and it produced 700,000 long tons of crude in 1939. Bahrein began producing petroleum in 1933 and a million tons were extracted in 1937. Kuwait didn't start until 1946, Qatar 1950, the Neutral Zone 1954 and Abu Dhabi 1962.

Will Istanbul want the Saudi oil? AIUI none of the Saudi oil fields are in what was the Hejaz. Are any of them in what was Al Haasa?

If I'm not mistaken Al Hasa was/is FULL of oil reserves....

 

[Aghasverov]

Will Constantinople be renamed Istanbul ITTL?

So, take me back to Constantinople​

No, you can't go back to Constantinople​

Been a long time gone, Constantinople​

Why did Constantinople get the works?​

That's nobody's business but the Turks​

Haven't seen a good TMBG reference in a while

 

[agisXIV]

According to my World Crude Petroleum production spreadsheet (that runs from 1913 to 1969) Iraq started producing oil in 1927 and was producing 4 million long tons a year by 1936. Saudi Arabia didn't start production until 1937 but growth was rapid by the standards of the day and it produced 700,000 long tons of crude in 1939. Bahrein began producing petroleum in 1933 and a million tons were extracted in 1937. Kuwait didn't start until 1946, Qatar 1950, the Neutral Zone 1954 and Abu Dhabi 1962.

Will Istanbul want the Saudi oil? AIUI none of the Saudi oil fields are in what was the Hejaz. Are any of them in what was Al Haasa?

Nearly all of Saudi's oil reserves are in Qatif and al-Ahsa an area which is majority Shia and pretty persecuted by the regime.

 

[Aghasverov]

Most Armenians would still live. Though their relationship with the Kurds would be least to say... quite a problem.

Agree that with no Russian Caucasus operation, that a complete attempted genocide against the Armenians would be unlikely. Most evidence I've seen suggests that Enver and Talaat despised the Armenians even pre-war (Djemal "the Butcher", I'm not so sure - the evidence on his early beliefs is mixed, but the Dashnaks must've offed him for a reason)... but without the Russian invasion, propaganda campaign, and the fact that many Armenians did fight on the Russian side... their motive would be non-existent... and as a non-belligerent they would face the scrutiny of the world-at-large to a greater degree than OTL, when they had the benefit of war to conceal their atrocities...
There may have still been some repression against the Armenians, Pontic Greeks, Assyrians and restive Arabs, but doubtful it would reach the level of OTL... also agree that without the War, the "triumvirate" would probably have not lasted that long, before a counter-coup...

 

[Osman Aga]

According to my World Crude Petroleum production spreadsheet (that runs from 1913 to 1969) Iraq started producing oil in 1927 and was producing 4 million long tons a year by 1936. Saudi Arabia didn't start production until 1937 but growth was rapid by the standards of the day and it produced 700,000 long tons of crude in 1939. Bahrein began producing petroleum in 1933 and a million tons were extracted in 1937. Kuwait didn't start until 1946, Qatar 1950, the Neutral Zone 1954 and Abu Dhabi 1962.

Will Istanbul want the Saudi oil? AIUI none of the Saudi oil fields are in what was the Hejaz. Are any of them in what was Al Haasa?

The vast majority is in Al Haasa. The area is very important for Saudi Arabia nowadays.

Oil production importance will take place in the 1950s. Until then small scale industrialization is what increases Ottoman GDP.

 

[Osman Aga]

Agree that with no Russian Caucasus operation, that a complete attempted genocide against the Armenians would be unlikely. Most evidence I've seen suggests that Enver and Talaat despised the Armenians even pre-war (Djemal "the Butcher", I'm not so sure - the evidence on his early beliefs is mixed, but the Dashnaks must've offed him for a reason)... but without the Russian invasion, propaganda campaign, and the fact that many Armenians did fight on the Russian side... their motive would be non-existent... and as a non-belligerent they would face the scrutiny of the world-at-large to a greater degree than OTL, when they had the benefit of war to conceal their atrocities...
There may have still been some repression against the Armenians, Pontic Greeks, Assyrians and restive Arabs, but doubtful it would reach the level of OTL... also agree that without the War, the "triumvirate" would probably have not lasted that long, before a counter-coup...

It is silly to say massacres will not happen. But the casualties would be on the lower side. When many Armenians move into Western cities along with local Muslims, their resistance will evolve into political movement to increase the care of ethnic Armenians. Armed resistance is meaningless in eyalets you don't form a majority and the Kurds do. Taking in mind Armenians emigrated in larger numbers to foreign countries and Kurds did not, it's only a matter of time until the Kurds are too large to overcome in armed insurgency.

I can safely say many Armenians will likely flirt with nation wide socialist and communist organization where other Turks, Kurds, Arabs and Greeks partake.

 

[Osman Aga]

Will Constantinople be renamed Istanbul ITTL?

So, take me back to Constantinople​

No, you can't go back to Constantinople​

Been a long time gone, Constantinople​

Why did Constantinople get the works?​

That's nobody's business but the Turks​

Unofficially called Istanbul like that. Odds are it still will be. Many of Mustafa Kemal's reforms had origins from Ottoman era. Abolishing the monarchy was his addition. So in short, yes, there is a chance Turkification of certain areas in Anatolia is likely.

 

[thaddeus]

It is possible to enter as a revanchist power. Mustafa Kemal, Ismet Inonu, Kazim Orbay, Celal Bayar and Fevzi Cakmak die prior to 1938 for whatever reason and Nuri Pasha manages to take power. Nuri Pasha was a former Ottoman Official who had special interest in Azerbaijan. It went as far as getting in touch with the Germans in WW2 to secure Azerbaijan (and Armenia) for Turkey. Ismet Inonu wanted none of that which would draw the Soviets and the Americans and never gave Nuri space. But if Nuri Pasha manages to become leader in Turkey by 1938, you have a leader that is willing to draw Turkey into war in 1941 against the Soviets only. Greece is secondary for Western Thrace, if those successes are achieved, you may have an even more delusional Nuri Pasha willing to invade Bulgaria for the Turkish minority in North East Bulgaria.

my understanding of the "Mosul question" is rather limited, do you think a Republic of Turkey that has managed to keep that would be a better candidate for adventures rather than a surviving OE? (i.e. they would have a large oil production during the interwar period, but still have lost vast parts of the former empire)

 

[Osman Aga]

my understanding of the "Mosul question" is rather limited, do you think a Republic of Turkey that has managed to keep that would be a better candidate for adventures rather than a surviving OE? (i.e. they would have a large oil production during the interwar period, but still have lost vast parts of the former empire)

Republican Turkey under Mustafa Kemal and until the 70s was rather Neutralist. Mustafa Kemal wanted Mosul but was unwilling to fight for it. Anyone like him or his friends from the Army time will not be any different, let alone revanchist.