an Ottoman Empire that survives until WWII

thaddeus

Donor
what are plausible borders for an Ottoman Empire that survives until WWII? (that remains neutral in WWI)

if we just stay fairly close to historical events, where they were in 1913

ottomon empire 1913.jpg
from wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_evolution_of_the_Ottoman_Empire

do they recede further, from the Arabian Peninsula for instance?
 
If something like the Russian Civil War still happens, can an Ottoman Empire that stays out of the bigger war pick up chunks of the disintegrating Romanov Empire? Something like Enver Pasha's hijinks in Central Asia?
 
If something like the Russian Civil War still happens, can an Ottoman Empire that stays out of the bigger war pick up chunks of the disintegrating Romanov Empire? Something like Enver Pasha's hijinks in Central Asia?
While certainly it is impossible to predict every historical outcome, without the Ottoman blockade of the Russian Empire via blocking the Straits, their reinforcements to the Eastern Front, the necessity of the Russians to fight in the Caucasus, and the massive amount of British and French resources thrown at the Ottoman Empire throughout four years of war, it is in my opinion unlikely that the Russian Empire would collapse into the Russian Civil War. Their material and military situation is improved so dramatically that I think OTL's revolution is improbable.

If it does, then it is possible certainly, although external diplomatic pressure applied to them would limit the full extent of their gains.
 
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If something like the Russian Civil War still happens, can an Ottoman Empire that stays out of the bigger war pick up chunks of the disintegrating Romanov Empire? Something like Enver Pasha's hijinks in Central Asia?
I think it would be a terrible decision on their part. The Caucasus is absolute hell to invade given the difficult terrain, and even more troublesome to hold onto given the innumerable ethnic groups in the region, none of whom are likely to be happy under Ottoman rule.

They also have little to gain economically, as the region doesn't offer much in the way of resources outside of Azerbaijan's oil -- a resource which the Ottomans are already in an abundance of.
 
hey also have little to gain economically, as the region doesn't offer much in the way of resources outside of Azerbaijan's oil -- a resource which the Ottomans are already in an abundance of.
Not at the time, before deep soil exploration Baku worth the prize and risk
 
Not at the time, before deep soil exploration Baku worth the prize and risk
Maybe. But wouldn't Russian revanchism be a major concern? Whatever faction emerges victorious in the civil war is likely to be pissed about losing territory to a neutral power during their time of crisis.
 
Maybe. But wouldn't Russian revanchism be a major concern? Whatever faction emerges victorious in the civil war is likely to be pissed about losing territory to a neutral power during their time of crisis.
If commies no one would care
 
what are plausible borders for an Ottoman Empire that survives until WWII? (that remains neutral in WWI)

if we just stay fairly close to historical events, where they were in 1913

View attachment 629513
from wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_evolution_of_the_Ottoman_Empire

do they recede further, from the Arabian Peninsula for instance?
In this case the Entente powers will say "Thank you" in 1918 after defeating the rest of the CPs
... and in 1919/1920 dismantle the OE to an central anatolian rump the size of the ancient roman galatean vasall-kingdom.
... if they are lucky ...
 

Osman Aga

Banned
what are plausible borders for an Ottoman Empire that survives until WWII? (that remains neutral in WWI)

if we just stay fairly close to historical events, where they were in 1913

View attachment 629513
from wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_evolution_of_the_Ottoman_Empire

do they recede further, from the Arabian Peninsula for instance?

If the OE does not have Edirne they will take it in a war. It is crucial to have that. I say minimally 1914 borders or nothing.

Edit: Depends on the Policy. If the Ottoman Empire follows a "racial purity" policy a la Nazi Germany, the Arabs might be discontented enough to call a revolution. Probably a anti-Far right revolution, if that is not possible, an Arab revolution is optional.

It could be bigger if Russia fell apart and Azerbaijan Democratic Republic (including Kars Oblast and Yerevan as well) joining the Ottoman Empire. Cyprus would not be annexed and the Arab regions of Kuwait and Qatar would likely return to the OE. Egypt officially remains a vassal of the OE but independence would be imminent by 1913.
 
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Osman Aga

Banned
While certainly it is impossible to predict every historical outcome, without the Ottoman blockade of the Russian Empire via blocking the Straits, their reinforcements to the Eastern Front, the necessity of the Russians to fight in the Caucasus, and the massive amount of British and French resources thrown at the Ottoman Empire throughout four years of war, it is in my opinion unlikely that the Russian Empire would collapse into the Russian Civil War. Their material and military situation is improved so dramatically that I think OTL's revolution is improbable.

If it does, then it is possible certainly, although external diplomatic pressure applied to them would limit the full extent of their gains.

If this alters Russian performance then yes. If this does not butterfly away Brusilov (if it ever comes to that) then also yes. Russian performance in the war makes me think the Germans will still reach Riga and Minsk by early 1917. It looks unlikely but it isn't impossible.
 

Osman Aga

Banned
I think it would be a terrible decision on their part. The Caucasus is absolute hell to invade given the difficult terrain, and even more troublesome to hold onto given the innumerable ethnic groups in the region, none of whom are likely to be happy under Ottoman rule.

They also have little to gain economically, as the region doesn't offer much in the way of resources outside of Azerbaijan's oil -- a resource which the Ottomans are already in an abundance of.

The Ottomans did invade the Caucasus in late 1917 and reached Baku in the Summer with a relatively short Army while the British were in Baghdad and Damascus.

Nowadays Armenia had around 40-45% Muslims (Azerbaijani/Kurdish) who would welcome the Ottoman Armies in favor of Armenians setting up their Government. This is of course with Azerbaijanis forming their own government but still letting the Ottoman Armies to deal with various Armenian Groups led by Andranik Ozanian and Garegin Nzhdeh. You are wrong about that as well. If the alternatives of the South Caucasus Muslims are 1. OE, 2. Russia or 3. Armenia, they will prefer the OE at any given time.
There is also the land lost in 1878. Georgia is off limits. If the Ottomans have a semi-stable pro-Ottoman/anti-Russian government in Georgia it is as good as it can get.

The region offers defensive positions. Holding defenses in the Caucasus Mountains is better than letting Russia return and probably asking for the Kars Oblast back like OTL when Stalin did. Because once Russia is strong enough (be it as the USSR or White Dictatorship) it will move into the defenseless South Caucasus. Considering the Ottoman Empire has their Armenian Population because no WW1, it is unwise to let the Caucasus free. The Russians will return and you will risk a new hostile neighbor on your border.
 

Osman Aga

Banned
Maybe. But wouldn't Russian revanchism be a major concern? Whatever faction emerges victorious in the civil war is likely to be pissed about losing territory to a neutral power during their time of crisis.

Will Russia attack the Caucasus immediately? They attack Poland in 1939 together with Germany and the Baltics and Bessarabia in 1940 when the West was concentrated on Germany. Unless this OE is in deep doo doo the Russians will not come and say "Give it back or war". It took them until 1946 to ask the Kars Oblast back and they weren't willing to fight for it (it was a bluff) regardless of their Veteran Army and the size of it.
 

Osman Aga

Banned
In this case the Entente powers will say "Thank you" in 1918 after defeating the rest of the CPs
... and in 1919/1920 dismantle the OE to an central anatolian rump the size of the ancient roman galatean vasall-kingdom.
... if they are lucky ...

> Defeating the Central Powers in 1918
> Assuming that they have the will and the Public support to attack the Ottoman Empire in a new war in 1918 or in the first 10 years.

An Ottoman Empire out of war in WW1 will have a slightly better force than in 1914 (Veterans and already underwent full reorganizations). It isn't a war that will end with showing off Allied battle ships.

To expect that the Allied Nations will show off their ships, expect the Ottoman Empire to Surrender and let the state to be divided in a Galatean Vasal kingdom, IF THEY ARE LUCKY, is laughable. That is considering the Ottoman Empire resisted the Allied powers in 1914 when the War just started on multiple fronts, had been defeated in two wars between 1911 and 1913 and lasted until 1918 surrender AND fought back in Anatolia because it resisted Sevres until 1922. The Allies who are out of war in 1918 are not going to force a new war, especially with Public Opinion not going for it. And even if it is, it won't result into an automatic/default Sevres. That is just Wishful thinking.
 
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In this case the Entente powers will say "Thank you" in 1918 after defeating the rest of the CPs
... and in 1919/1920 dismantle the OE to an central anatolian rump the size of the ancient roman galatean vasall-kingdom.
... if they are lucky ...
This seems very improbable to me, to quote a comment I made a while ago on the subject

I'm around 10,000 kilometers from my copy of the Climax of French Imperialism: 1914-1924, which makes it hard to check for precise details in some sections, but the French were profoundly unhappy about the break-up of the Ottoman Empire. To the French, from their perspective, losing their influence across the Ottoman Empire as a whole - and getting in return Syria - wasn't desirable. The Comité de l'Asie Française for example, saw de Caix, their main ideologist, saw the following: "If means still exist to save the Ottoman Empire, we must seize them . . . we prefer to make our contributions to the cultivation of the great Ottoman garden rather than to have our small plot in Syria to ourselves". Delcassé and Bonpard (the French ambassador to Constantinople before the war), were both opposed to a partition. Most French high diplomats seemed to have shared a general view, this being the intent of the Quai d'Orsay. To take some quotes, unfortunately the Climax of French Imperialism doesn't generally mention exactly who said them...

"Our moral and beneficent influence would be severely limited, perhaps ruined, by a partition of the Empire."

"Everything torn away from Turkey is also lost to the French language . . . We can scarcely hope to find in the Orient, outside of the Turkish empire, Turkish or Arab authors who choose our language in which to write and who sometimes use it with such genuine talent . . . If Turkey were to be disassembled then the loss to our cultural domain would quickly become irreparable."

"[the official policy of the Comité de l'Asia Française was to preserve the Ottomans intact as]One of the most favored areas for our economy activity and-more important still-for our culture."

Only the diplomats in Syria and those who were concerned that the British intended to steal the region from them (quite a correct concern) dissented - and the latter were mostly invigorated when the war began. The French seizure of Syria and Lebanon is the French making sure they got their pound of flesh as their second-best option, rather than necessarily being the over-riding goal for them in the region.

I doubt therefor that the French would be likely to support a partition of the Ottoman Empire, and certainly wouldn't proceed therefor on their own. If the French can, they'll prefer for the Ottomans to stick around. Russian relations with the Ottomans had been quite good a few decades before, and it isn't impossible that they might return to this. French diplomatic pressure on the Russians would help in this regard; the French will still hold those massive loans in Russia and serve as a source of Russian financing, giving them outsized political influence there (and on a similar note, their massive loans and influence inside the Ottoman Empire, of which some might be relinquished by the Ottomans joining just like Siam saw some reprieves from Franco-British imperialism but which much would remain intact, give a very good concrete reason to support keeping the Ottomans together). I don't know what the British relations to the Ottomans were like, but I doubt that the British are going to invade the Ottomans. Greece, Serbia, and Romania attacking the Ottomans seems bizarre... what do the Serbians post First Balkan War, much less the Romanians, get out of it? The Serbs happen to have both Bulgaria and Greece between them and the Ottomans, and no Serbian minorities in Ottoman territory. Greece on its own, has little hope of invading the Ottomans.

Italy meanwhile, while fully capable of biting off disconnected Ottoman territories in Libya and a few islands, seems like a... doubtful, candidate to mount an invasion of the only Ottoman territory of significance remaining, the mainland.

This being said, the French did have that second option of partition, and it existed for a reason. I think the best quote to sum up what French policy is, is one from Raymond Poincaré:

"We must maintain the status quo in Asia Minor as long as possible. But there will come a day when partition takes place . . . and we must make advance preparation in order not to miss out on it."

If the Ottomans look strong, then France will back them; if not, then the buzzards will circle.
 
what are plausible borders for an Ottoman Empire that survives until WWII? (that remains neutral in WWI)

if we just stay fairly close to historical events, where they were in 1913

View attachment 629513
from wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_evolution_of_the_Ottoman_Empire

do they recede further, from the Arabian Peninsula for instance?
Everything @Osman Aga wrote.

I didn't read the first part of the first sentence in that was in brackets until I'd written most of your reply. I thought that you meant an Ottoman Empire that performs better in WWI and therefore doesn't loose as much territory under the Treaty of Sèvres, which is why I wrote...

The best I can think of is that the Ottomans defend their territory better than they did IOTL and the British Empire and Commonwealth (BEC) forces hadn't been able to advance beyond Gaza and Basra.

It has been said that possession is nine-tenths of the law. I think there's a good chance that the British and French will decide that partitioning the Ottoman Empire between themselves and Greece wasn't worth the effort. That would confine the Ottoman Empire's territorial losses in Treaty of Sèvres to the Hejaz plus Cyprus, Egypt and the Sudan de jure (although they'd lost these territories de facto). That might avoid the OTL Greco-Turkish War of 1919-22 and the declaration of the Republic of Turkey.
 

thaddeus

Donor
An Ottoman Empire out of war in WW1 will have a slightly better force (Veterans and already underwent reorganizations). It isn't a war that will end with showing off Allied battle ships.

To expect that the Allied Nations will show off their ships, expect the Ottoman Empire to Surrender and let the state to be divided in a Galatean Vasal kingdom, IF THEY ARE LUCKY, is laughable. That is considering the Ottoman Empire resisted the Allied powers in 1914 when the War just started on multiple fronts, had been defeated in two wars between 1911 and 1913 and lasted until 1918 surrender AND fought back in Anatolia because it resisted Sevres until 1922. The Allies who are out of war in 1918 are not going to force a new war, especially with Public Opinion not going for it. And even if it is, it won't result into an automatic/default Sevres.
there is a "halfway" scenario in which they become involved in the Caucasus and/or Persia? not exactly on the CP side?

what would be a rump Ottoman Empire? modern day Turkey with Mosul and Aleppo Vilayets?

my own interest is how they could enter WWII as a revanchist power, but that would not have to be the case.
 

thaddeus

Donor
Everything @Osman Aga wrote.

I didn't read the first part of the first sentence in that was in brackets until I'd written most of your reply. I thought that you meant an Ottoman Empire that performs better in WWI and therefore doesn't loose as much territory under the Treaty of Sèvres, which is why I wrote...

The best I can think of is that the Ottomans defend their territory better than they did IOTL and the British Empire and Commonwealth (BEC) forces hadn't been able to advance beyond Gaza and Basra.

It has been said that possession is nine-tenths of the law. I think there's a good chance that the British and French will decide that partitioning the Ottoman Empire between themselves and Greece wasn't worth the effort. That would confine the Ottoman Empire's territorial losses in Treaty of Sèvres to the Hejaz plus Cyprus, Egypt and the Sudan de jure (although they'd lost these territories de facto). That might avoid the OTL Greco-Turkish War of 1919-22 and the declaration of the Republic of Turkey.
thanks for the reply

in my own mind,they would have to be neutral to survive, but I should have made it clear not a requirement.
 
what are plausible borders for an Ottoman Empire that survives until WWII? (that remains neutral in WWI)

if we just stay fairly close to historical events, where they were in 1913

View attachment 629513
from wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_evolution_of_the_Ottoman_Empire

do they recede further, from the Arabian Peninsula for instance?
Egypt, the Sudan and Cyprus had been British territory de facto for more than three decades in 1914 but they still Ottoman territory de jure. IOTL the British annexed these territories in 1914. That wouldn't happen ITTL and they would still be nominal Ottoman territory in 1918.

I'm wondering whether the populations of these countries would have a more positive view of British rule ITTL? That is, "We'd rather be independent nations/part of Greece. However, the realpolitik is that it's the British or the Ottomans and the British are the lesser of two evils." Especially in the case of Egypt which would be sharing a border with the surviving Ottoman Empire.
 

Osman Aga

Banned
there is a "halfway" scenario in which they become involved in the Caucasus and/or Persia? not exactly on the CP side?

what would be a rump Ottoman Empire? modern day Turkey with Mosul and Aleppo Vilayets?

my own interest is how they could enter WWII as a revanchist power, but that would not have to be the case.

The Ottoman Empire that doesn't enter in war in 1914 probably results in the downfall of Enver, Cemal and Talat sooner rather than later. These three men were confronted with heir Yusuf Izeddin. Considering the chaotic years of 1913, a counter coup against these three isn't far off. And if that succeeds, the new Government isn't going to risk the ire of the Entente or the Central powers by attacking the Caucasus or Bulgaria for example. Enver was reckless (for good reasons though) by attacking Russia. Even their former 'mentor' Mahmud Sevket was a wise man not willing to risk a war. Enver was younger and did take the risk.

Rump Turkey is what I understand as Sevres Turkey with only Greece and Armenia keeping their part and the Straits remaining in international hands. Modern day Turkey with Mosul, Aleppo and even Cyprus is a blessing for any Turkish Government.

It is possible to enter as a revanchist power. Mustafa Kemal, Ismet Inonu, Kazim Orbay, Celal Bayar and Fevzi Cakmak die prior to 1938 for whatever reason and Nuri Pasha manages to take power. Nuri Pasha was a former Ottoman Official who had special interest in Azerbaijan. It went as far as getting in touch with the Germans in WW2 to secure Azerbaijan (and Armenia) for Turkey. Ismet Inonu wanted none of that which would draw the Soviets and the Americans and never gave Nuri space. But if Nuri Pasha manages to become leader in Turkey by 1938, you have a leader that is willing to draw Turkey into war in 1941 against the Soviets only. Greece is secondary for Western Thrace, if those successes are achieved, you may have an even more delusional Nuri Pasha willing to invade Bulgaria for the Turkish minority in North East Bulgaria.
 
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