Always on about Europe: British Political TL
- Thread starter Shads
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Devvy
Donor
I doubt it. The engine of the EU in the French, German, Benelux will continue on. Whilst many people have questions over the supranational/federal qualities of the EU, the economic integration has very rarely been called in to question - even today in OTL those wanting fully out of the EU with no further economic integration (ie. no deal) are definitely in the small minority. Ireland will still get loans from the UK to help. Portugal, Spain and Italy will go through painful financial transformations. Greece might unilaterally drop the Euro for a New Drachma with all the consequences (for better or for worse!). But I can't really see that alone rocking the fundamental nature of the EU - what it might/could (depending on author wishes here!) do instead is force it in to a more formalised two-tier structure with the "Inner Core" on full integration et al, and an outer layer with far less integration outside of the economic realm.
Well the euro crisis might play out very differently:
Firstly the EU would now have experience with dealing with a member that wishes to leave (so Greece can see what happens and the threat of having to leave the EU entirely in order to drop out of the euro* and there might be less brinksmanship on the part of Greece)
Secondly, without the UK in the EU, the EU might have responded differently. For starters, this would never have happened. So we would at the very least see treaty changes most likely as a response to the crisis.
* I did an entire thread on that years ago which researched this and suggested that there really wasn't any way for Greece to drop out of the euro without leaving the EU entirely, at least not without facing a shitstorm domestically that makes May's troubles look like a walk through a field of wheat
Firstly the EU would now have experience with dealing with a member that wishes to leave (so Greece can see what happens and the threat of having to leave the EU entirely in order to drop out of the euro* and there might be less brinksmanship on the part of Greece)
Secondly, without the UK in the EU, the EU might have responded differently. For starters, this would never have happened. So we would at the very least see treaty changes most likely as a response to the crisis.
* I did an entire thread on that years ago which researched this and suggested that there really wasn't any way for Greece to drop out of the euro without leaving the EU entirely, at least not without facing a shitstorm domestically that makes May's troubles look like a walk through a field of wheat
Hague had developed an image, deserved or not, within Eurosceptics as the voice of euroscepticism. The coalition and strength of the Democrats however forced him to remain quiet on his personal view despite it being obvious he supported leave. This made the public view him as indecisive and hurt this persona built around him. As someone else said too there is chaos in the cabinet like otl. It’s like the otl coalition negotiating brexit but thrice as complex.
Calbin
Banned
It was heavily questioned during the eurozone crisis. Brexit plus the eurozone crisis means even less investor and public confidence which is very bad.
I think you underestimate euroscepticism in France and the Netherlands. A Marijnissen-Wilders lead leave campaign could win, french euroscepticism is definitely strong but it can’t find figures to unite around
Devvy
Donor
My feeling was that the financial integration (ie. Euro) was unpopular in the southern countries. But none of the GIIPS countries even wanted out of the EU - just out of the Eurozone. Not even Greece during it's hardest years. I'll take that as meaning the fundamental nature of the EU is safe and stable, but obviously this is a matter of perception, so we can agree to disagree.
Like above, it's a matter of perception so clearly we disagree. Whilst the "alternative" parties might have a level of popularity, I really can't see any of those core countries have a referendum deciding to fundamentally leave the EU. Even if FN got the French Presidential seat, it would obviously push back on EU powers hard - but I don't think the French would have voted to leave the EU.
All a matter of theoreticals and perception though!
Calbin
Banned
The PVV was in a government deal from 2010-2012. With brexit being such a landslide in this tl an Eu referendum will be their first priority in those negotiations, and looking at 2005 pro EU politicians in the Netherlands have absolutely no ability to run a referendum campaign.
He’s not exactly the strongest remainder and far more eurosceptic ITTL. The Europhile Democrats haven’t helped in him being able to state his views either. Without their support the Tories are nearly 100 Seats short of a majority.
And even then public support for the euro was generally pretty positive during the height of the crisis. It was mainly that some politicians wanted out of the eurozone (I think during the height of the crisis polls consistently showed something like 70% of Greeks supporting the euro).
While French euroscepticism may be underestimated, I fear Calbin may be mischaracterizing it. Continental euroscepticism is generally very different from British euroscepticism. Continental euroscepticism is often more along the lines of calling into question how the EU does things and what the EU needs to do, whereas British euroscepticism more often than not questioned EU membership (and the very need for the EU as a whole) itself.
FN initially advocated leaving the euro but dropped then when it proved to be unpopular.
The PVV in the netherlands has consistently campaigned on euroscepticism but only in July 2012 I believe did it clearly and consistently spell out it wanted The Netherlands to leave the EU. In fact at that point it claimed it was going to be a one-issue party (campaigning on Dutch withdrawal from the EU) between July and the general elections in September. What happened in those elections? Well the PVV lost a third of their votes from the 2010 election (1.4 million in 2010 down to 950,000 in 2012) in an election which saw a slight increase in the numbers voting (from 9.44 million in 2010 to 9.46 million 2012). In 2010 by contrast the PVV manifesto did not outright call for withdrawal from the EU (it hinted at it, by making references to ending the "European superstate"), but rather it called for more Dutch opt-outs in the field of immigration and agriculture and called for a return to the days of the EEC over the EU.
The PVV subsequently regained some support in 2017 in an election which saw a much higher increase in overall voting numbers (to 10.56 million) and which followed on from the refugee crisis affecting the EU.
My take is that even in the Netherlands explicit campaigning for EU withdrawal would garner no more than 10-20% of the vote at best. So any PVV campaign in such a referendum would face a few hurdles:
1. getting a referendum explicitly on leaving the EU (it would first need other parties in parliament to support such a referendum for it to be enacted (and prior to the 2015 advisory referendum act, good luck getting a referendum to even be offered - without that act even 100,000 signatories clamouring from a referendum won't trigger a process whereby a referendum is done, and even after it is passed the provisions mean that acts already in force generally (such as those which brought the EU into being) are not subject to being put to a referendum. So that would have to wait til a new EU treaty or some EU treaty change and even then it would only be about that treaty change, not membership in the EU itself).
2. Getting public support over 50% for leaving the EU. They could campaign on some tangentially related issue, but even at the height of the migrant crisis they were polling something like 30-35% of the vote. If the vote was on something like EU treaty changes, I could see the PVV successfully playing spoiler and getting that 50%+1, however the problem then becomes how do you go from the Dutch public rejecting say the proposed changes that introduce the European Stability Mechanism to getting the government and the majority of the Dutch parliament to take that a mandate to vote for notifying the EU that the Netherlands intends to withdraw?
3. Aside from the 2005 referendum on the European Constitution, the last referendum in the Netherland at that point was in 1805 I believe. 200 years. Maybe they could do a referendum on the Lisbon treaty, but here's the catch - there is no 2015 advisory referendum act at that point, the Lisbon treaty gets ratified in 2009 after being signed in December 2007 and the next Dutch elections happen in 2010. Prior to that the PVV had 9 seats having won 6% of the vote in the 2006 elections. So there isn't really any way for them to actually get to have a referendum even remotely related to Dutch EU membership prior to 2010.
Given that other outcomes were possible in the government formation negotiations for 2010, I would think it is more a possibility that if the PVV pushed strongly for a referendum on EU membership outright then the CDA (which was the only party willing to help the VVD form a majority government) would be super unlikely to support the parliamentary support deal which allowed the VVD-CDA coalition government to be formed with PVV support. After all this is the same CDA which strongly support Dutch EU membership and even supports Turkish EU membership and would not entertain the notion of a formal coalition with the PVV due to the PVV's stance on Muslims and immigration (and even then up to a third of CDA members voted against the agreement in a special party conference reportedly).
If the CDA refuses any deal with the PVV over this issue, then government formation talks would have to have continued I suppose and perhaps eventually one of the other outcomes being investigated (VVD, PvdA, CDA or VVD, PvdA, G66 and DL or even VVD, PvdA, CDA, G66 and DL) would have been hashed out. In fact might it not have been possible that the PvdA's idea of a rainbow coalition which was rejected by G66 and DL would instead have ended up as a centre coalition of VVD, PvdA and CDA with conditional support by G66 and DL based on certain policies?
Brent Consequences
clashed with the vote of the British people. Officially, 29 MPs had endorsed the intentions of the document and as such represented a sizeable amount of the party. As the document was being read out Zac Goldsmith stood up in protest to what he was hearing, citing the referendum results as proof the Democratic Party could not “simultaneously be the voice of the Pro European camp and be a party of Democracy”.
There were many murmurs in response to this, some agreeing and others disagreeing. All attention was then turned to Wheway for his response.
“I’m afraid to say I can’t fault Mr Goldsmith’s logic there. We wouldn’t be the DEMOCRATIC party if we refused to accept the results of a democratic referendum.”
At this revelation, 5 MPs stood up and made their way towards the exit of the meeting hall as MPs and veteran leaders in the front row, Paddy Ashdown and Ed Davey, looked on in shock. As these 5 exited the hall the press, who had been on standby outside in case of any revelations, rushed to interview the man leading the four others, Tim Farron. He gave a short speech before turning to his car.
Tim Farron: *turning to the camera* “I have just been in a conference hall of what I thought was my party. A party that stood up for values I believed in. But this party has decided to abandon the choice made by the millions of people who just weeks ago voted to remain in the European Union. Me and my four colleagues believe that we simply cannot serve in a party that works hand in hand with the Tories to kill the European dream. But under our new party, the dream shall never die.” *starts to walk to the car park*
Cameraman: “Mr Farron, does this mean you will be leaving the government?”
Tim Farron: *turns back around briefly* “Does Vince Cable serve in the government?”
These five MPs who had shocked Britain by storming out the hall would defect to the Social Democratic Party, joining Vince Cable in the long coming death of the Social Democratic wing of the Democrats. These five new MPs consisted of:
Tim Farron (MP for Westmorland and Lonsdale)
Dan Rogerson (MP for North Cornwall)
Jo Swinson (MP for East Dunbartonshire and Minister for Women and Equality Secretary)
Duncan Hames (MP for Chippenham and Justice Secretary)
Mark Williams (MP for Ceredigion and Welsh Secretary)
While a bigger defection of nearly 25 MPs was expected by some not all the signers of the Brent Document would end up defecting. It did however cut into the government’s majority, now giving it a majority of just 8. There was now the very real chance of a minority being created from further defections. In this crucial negotiating time, would the government be defeated by a no confidence vote?
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Did the LibDems abandon its support for changing the voting system after the AV referrendum in OTL? Obviously Wheway is a different man to OTL's LibDem leaders and the party has alot of the leftie Tories in it, but I have difficulty seeing him seriously saying something so contrary to his party's platform - even if he personally is in favour of Brexit, he still needs the support of his MPs to have a party.
I can understand the Democrats feeling honour-bound to support government policy on Brexit, but I'd expect lots of fudging around to say "oh, we don't support this but will act to responsibly enact the will of the people while working to ensure the closest possible relationship with Europe". That said, depending on the level of support for Brexit, if the Democratic party's MPs are in remain-leaning seats, I can't see them supporting Brexit at all. The only way I can see them supporting it is if their voters are split on the issue or lean to Leave.
fasquardon
There is a referendum on whether or not to change the voting system coming up next year. With a heavy victory for Brexit the party does feel mostly like they should honour the result and as the Democrats are a bigger party and the vote was more one sided a sizeable amount of their constituencies voted to leave. So yeah the party policy is mainly “we don’t agree with the result but we will accept it given the high turnout and high vote for leave”. Similar to how the Tories opposed the already passed Cornish Assembly vote but accepted the result.
A Fight For Europe
The Prime Minister was greatly annoyed by the dent in his majority around this crucial time in negotiating a leave deal and urged Wheway to control his party in time for the next round of talks with Europe in January 2008. In the first round of talks a leave date of the 20th of October 2010 had been established in which, deal acquired or not, the U.K. would cease to be a member of the European Union. The government struggled with its small majority and was extremely nervous of future defections to the SDP however they could find some comfort in that, slowly amongst Tory and Democrat MPs, the idea of a Swiss style deal with the EU would be established.
Labour claimed that this deal would betray the millions that voted to leave and that “the people had voted for leaving, not a half in half out situation of Chaos” as Burnham put it. Labour was benefitting from this more left wing populist party position. Polls showed them still leading on 39% with the Tories in a distant second of 32% followed by the Democrats who had slumped further to just 18%. The SDP had reached a previously unprecedented 7%, most of it from centre left or centrist pro European Democrat voters. Although there had been speculation on it before, would the SDP be Britain’s fourth party?
What they voted for
William Hague was forced to restrain Farage on comments he made against his own party however the Home Secretary had support in his views amongst many backbench Tory MPs. They too thought the government was betraying the country and forcing a technical remain on the UK. As Hague’s image as the voice of Euroscepticism quickly faded, Farages image only grew stronger and became more well liked amongst the public for this.
It didn’t help that, bizarrely in only a topic as divisive as Brexit, Farages claims were echoed by the Labour Party. Burnham lashed out at Hague in PMQs, accusing him of flip flopping on the issue of Brexit to appease the Democrats. “The Prime Minister is more focused on keeping his job than ensuring the people’s vote is respected and ensuring prosperity for Britain.” was just one memorable attack on Hague. How would Hague handle being attacked from all sides?
“Control your party!”
Jason Zadrozny (MP for Ashfield)
Kathryn Newbound (MP for Maidenhead)
Peter May (MP for Swansea West)
John Thurso (MP for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross)
Although the carrying far less political clout amongst them than the first five defections it did strike another blow to the government. With a loss of another 4 Seats the government now was in a minority, although given Sinn Féin and the speaker it was still a technical majority. Hague and Wheway would have a heated phone call upon the emergence of this news however Wheway calmly reminded the prime minister that he had nothing close to a majority without the Democrats support. Nevertheless, given these resignations from the cabinet. Hague performed a reshuffle in mid January to accommodate the loss of these MPs.
Cabinet of the Prime Minister
Prime Minister: William Hague Deputy Prime Minister: Rob Wheway
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Kenneth Clarke
Foreign Secretary: Boris Johnson
Home Secretary: Nigel Farage
Conservative Party Chairman: Michael Portillo
Democratic Party Chairman: Susan Kramer
Education Secretary: Alistair Carmichael
Employment Secretary: John Bercow
Defense Secretary: Iain Duncan-Smith
Health Secretary: Dr Liam Fox
Justice Secretary: Paul Harrod
Business Secretary: Phillip Hammond
Trade Secretary: David Laws
Industry Secretary: David Cameron
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Ed Davey
Food and Fisheries Secretary: Francis Maude
Agriculture Secretary: Justine Greening
Environment Secretary: Zac Goldsmith
Communities and Local Government Secretary: Eric Pickles
Minister for Women and Equality Secretary: Julia Goldsworthy
Transport Secretary: Rob Wheway
Europe Secretary: Nick Clegg
Culture, Olympics and Sport Secretary: Dominic Grieve
International Development Secretary: David Davis
Scottish Secretary: Danny Alexander
Welsh Secretary: Lembit Öpik
Northern Irish Secretary: Reg Empey
Although government ministers had been appropriately replaced, the government still appeared very weak. Although the fixed term parliaments act meant an election would be held before 2011, Labour eyed up the likelihood of an election before that with plenty to be confident about. Almost all opinion polls were suggesting a strong Labour majority was likely at the next election. The SDP was a threat to its more Europhile MPs however but the majority of them, especially those in the North of England which had voted to leave in a landslide, feared loss of their seat if they even wanted to defect. Most were happy to accept the referendum result. With the U.K. under a minority government for the first time since the 1997, was Hague about to be the Callaghan of the 21st century?