Any thoughts on the Independent Texas TL? I've been brainstorming some ideas (consider Austin' s box a prototype), including the rise and fall of a Texas Empire, a German based anti-slavery and labor party, a succession from Texas, and possibly an alt! Civil War.
OK, key questions in a Independent Texas TL.
1) (Minor) Iowa in 1848 would make a majority of Free States (13-12, any effects, *more* desire for war with Mexico?)
2) Mexican American War? US Allied with Texas? If yes to both, What areas are gained by the US, by Texas? If no alliance with Texas, does the US recognize the Texan claims all the way to the 42nd. If no, Mexican American War, Does California Revolt and what about Utah? (presuming the Mormons go there, Smith's death would be after the POD)
3) With war with Mexico, what areas become slave territories and/or slave states (could we see Oklahoman statehood very early?), note the only TL that I've seen with anything successful slavery south of the OTL border with Mexico is Decades of Darkness and that is a much earlier POD and fewer free states)
4) *Presuming* a map somewhere close to ours for the US at the time when the South feels that it has lost everything in Washington, what is the relationship between Texas and the CSA-analogue?
I've seen TLs where Houston is in full control of Texas and Texas stays in the Union so a Houston controlled Texas would probably be a Union leaning Neutral. In that case, I don't think much changes. The Union still needs to cut the Mississippi.
If Texas is a pro-confederate Neutral, then Washington has to decide whether to live with the *flood* of goods across the Texas or not. Not living with it probably equals war between the US and Texas, just as if Texas had jumped in full force. Not sure how this changes the war from OTL. If they do live with it, then I expect *very* bad relations after the war.
The other question is how long does Texas keep Slavery? If Texas has two states, (East and West) then I could almost see a Texan Civil War over the issue (I'm sure there are manual labor jobs less suited to Slavery than Cattle Ranching, but none spring to mind, especially once you get to the point where both Mexico and the US would be safe.