Bargaining With the Devil: When They Go Lowden
If Oscar Underwood was the unhappy compromise that could, then Frank Orren Lowden was the unhappy compromise that couldn't. The Republican Party stood in disbelief at the result. Oscar Underwood had just won 54% of the vote; no Democrat since Jackson had exceeded 51%, and only Van Buren, Pierce, and Tilden, the last of whom had run in 1876, had won a majority at all. Here they stood, the Republican Party's place as the natural party of governance seemingly shattered.
Finger-pointing began immediately. Many said that the economic prosperity of the decade had helped Underwood, and Republicans' attempts at claiming credit for it only reminded people of Warren Harding's unsavory presidency. Others said Lowden ran a bad campaign, that he had failed to distinguish himself sufficiently from Underwood on any issue other than Prohibition (and there, was still advocating for retaining the status quo) and so, when voters were faced with two seemingly identical candidates, many chose the incumbent over the challenger who promised no change. The reality was belied by the finger-pointing: the truth was, the Republican Party was divided. Perhaps had they been in power these differences between progressives and conservatives that seemed to have no end might have been papered over (though, as the 1923 speakership fight had shown, that was by no means a guarantee), but in opposition the two factions brought out the knives and ended up shivving each other - to the Democrats' benefit.
The big thing that had caused the fight this time was the Farm Relief Act of 1927. Many had noticed the prosperity of the Roaring Twenties hadn't spread to farmers, who were dealing with an economic calamity in the form of the Dust Bowl. Underwood's conservative government had been broadly similar to Harding's in many ways, though not quite so aggressively laissez-faire, as Underwood felt more of a need to sate the progressive wing of his party, but the Farm Relief Act had transpired anyways. Part of it was that conservative forces were not as against it as they were other interventionist programs - indeed, several key sponsors of the act included conservative prairie Republicans like Charles McNary - but also the reality of the Farmer-Laborites.
Born as the primary opposition to the Republicans in Minnesota, where the state Democratic Party never recovered its pre-statehood dominance, the Farmer-Labor Party had their first taste of power in the Underwood administration when the 1924 election shook out a Senate composed of 47 Democrats, 47 Republicans, and their 2 Minnesota seats; thus, they held the balance of power in the chamber, and they made sure the Democrats paid them their dues when they wanted legislation through the Senate. The 1926 elections saw this Senate dynamic go away when the Democrats took advantage of an overexposed Republican class from the 1920 landslide to actually gain several seats and the Senate majority, but the Farmer-Laborites gained something far more valuable: the balance of power in the House, where the Democrats retained a plurality but were denied an outright majority. That required an actual coalition to be negotiated in order to elect a speaker, and with calls for farm relief already on the rise since 1924, the Farmer-Laborites made their move.
This once again exposed the divisions of the Republican Party. Conservatives who didn't represent Western seats that knew the pain of the Dust Bowl were rather hostile to the idea, while Progressives, like former Agriculture Secretary Henry C. Wallace's son Henry A. Wallace, were more open to it. When the 1928 RNC convened, it was the key dividing line between the two strongest candidates, Lowden and former Commerce Secretary turned California Governor Herbert Hoover: Hoover, in theory the more "progressive" candidate, was actually against the Farm Relief Act, and advocated instead a plan based around modernization, electrification, and tariffs, as well as a farm board, while Lowden, though more conservative, was in favor of the passed Act. In a bitter convention, the Lowden forces scored a victory when the delegates approved platform plank in favor of the act. This took the wind out of the Hoover campaign and enabled Lowden to win the nomination. But it had been at a cost. The party had been deeply divided both pro-relief vs. anti-relief and progressive vs. conservative lines, and almost everyone in the party had a reason to differed with Lowden on at least one of the lines. Meanwhile, the party platform being pro-relief made it very pro-status quo; indeed, many claimed that the only real difference between Lowden and Underwood was that the former was a dry and the latter a wet, and the only reason no third-party emerged was because Fighting Bob had died in 1925 and no one had yet taken up his mantle. The choice of Gifford Pinchot for the vice-presidency was intended to balance the ticket with a progressive, but many had already decided they were sitting this one out because they just didn't like Lowden, and alienated anti-farm relief conservatives, who ended up also staying home. Charles G. Dawes, a former Harding administration official who had been the early favorite for the vice-presidential nomination, would have been more unifying, but was, like Lowden, an Illinoisian, and so the possibility of constitutional issues over Illinois' electoral votes in the case of a close election precluded his selection; an offer to Hoover was rejected when Lowden refused to countenance the opposite move.
In the end, turnout was only barely higher than 1924's, and arguably only because that election's turnout had already been absurdly low. The results showed danger in other areas, too: Underwood proved his wins in New York, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island four years prior hadn't been flukes by narrowly winning all three and flipping Massachusetts. Many noticed the prodigious influence of Al Smith in turning out Catholics, perhaps in preparation of a presidential bid of his own in four years. But there was a traditionally Democratic demographic Republicans had hoped to compete for in the aftermath of the 1920 result firmly back in their camp for two elections, and which now seemed to making the once-moribund Democratic Parties of the Northeast the vice-president's brother had decimated viable once again. Wisconsin and Minnesota seemed to have flipped as much because of them as because of the Farmer-Laborites' low-key cooperation.
The Republicans were quickly becoming a desperate animal. And there's few things more dangerous.