Here's the
2022 Canadian federal election.
Having won a majority government, Trudeau proceeded to embark on passing legislation that had floundered in the previous minority parliament. Some failed, like the government's attempts at electoral reform (the government's preferred method of alternative vote was defeated in a referendum, resulting in, at least for the foreseeable future, the status-quo of First Past the Post) while others succeeded (such as an agreement with First Nations similar to the 2005 Kelowna Accord, and a strong commitment with the provinces to reduce greenhouse gas emissions). These programs, combined with Trudeau's continued promises of financial stability, led to Conservative leader Jason Kenney accusing the government of "
trying to have it both ways," essentially arguing that the government could either have these programs or have financial stability, but not both; during his time in opposition, Kenney would repeatedly warn Canadians that Trudeau was not preparing for an eventual downturn in the economy.
While the Liberals did see their support slip slowly over the course of the four year parliament, Kenney and his Conservatives were experiencing their own problems. Kenney already suffered from lacking the personal popularity that Trudeau and NDP leader Nathan Cullen had, but now saw his popularity begin to slip within his own party, following what some in the party considered a "
disastrous" 2018 campaign and the party failing to win several winnable by-elections. An ultimately unsuccessful movement soon began in the party to replace Kenney with leadership runner-up James Moore, who said he didn't intend on challenging Kenney though only offered a tepid endorsement of his leadership. That said, Kenney was able to grow the Conservatives' popularity significantly, both in the Atlantic (where the unpopularity of the Harper government's cuts to Employment Insurance had begun to wear off), in Quebec, and amongst immigrants, though in each case they still found themselves behind the Liberals in support.
The rest of the opposition, though, wasn't in much better shape. While NDP leader Nathan Cullen had high personal approval ratings, the NDP saw its support slip in his home province of British Columbia, where not only was Trudeau's government well liked, but where the NDP was handicapped by a recently elected provincial government, as well as Quebec, where the party continued its downward trend in the polls. The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, actually
suffered due to having its leader in the House of Commons, as Mario Beaulieu saw himself with the most amount of attention since having been elected leader. Voters responded negatively to Beaulieu's staunch separatist stances, especially compared to Forces et Democratie and its leader, Jean-Francois Larose, which saw their support steadily rise at the expense of the Bloc. The Greens, meanwhile, selected Yukon MP and former Green Party of Ontario leader Frank de Jong as leader following the retirement of Elizabeth May. More than any other party, the Greens were all over the map in polling, though it was generally agreed they had increased their support since the past election.
When the election was called, the Liberals were still in the lead, although some polls had the Conservatives at their heels, with many predicting the government would be reduced to a minority. Trudeau campaigned largely on his record of a socially progressive and fiscally strong policies, and pledged to continue this if re-elected. Kenney, meanwhile, campaigned on a platform of stronger fiscal management, often arguing that Trudeau "
hasn't been saving up for a rainy day." However, his support began to slip following statements by several Conservative candidates that spending on social programs would be significantly cut back if elected.
Ultimately, thanks to a poor Conservative campaign, and a lack of any major scandals on the part of his government, Trudeau was re-elected with a second majority. The Conservatives, Greens, and Forces et Democratie each made gains, while the NDP and the Bloc fell, with the latter losing all of it's seats, ultimately never again winning a seat in the House of Commons.
Canada's Future:
2015
2018