Here's the
2026 Canadian federal election.
When Justin Trudeau's Liberal government was re-elected with a second consecutive majority government (its third term overall), it was clear that the writing was on the wall for Conservative leader Jason Kenney. Not only had he twice failed to prevent the Liberals from winning a majority government, but his lack of support within his own party likely meant that the only way he'd be able to stay on as leader would be by winning the election outright. The race to succeed Kenney is contested by previous runner-up James Moore, Dianne Watts, Steven Blaney, Pierre Poilievre, Candice Bergen, and Michelle Rempel. While Moore had been the "heir apparent" ever since his strong second-place finish in 2016, his standing within the party had suffered during the Kenney years, with his lack of support for Kenney leading to frequent rumours that he was trying to force Kenney out of the leadership. With Kenney's group of supporters in the party steadfastly against Moore, Moore found himself with baggage from the get-go. Amongst the other candidates, his strongest opposition came from British Columbia MP and former Surrey mayor Dianne Watts, and Quebec MP and former cabinet minister Steven Blaney. Watts had made a name for herself as a strong member of the shadow cabinet and locally popular MP able to resist the Liberal trend in the province, while Blaney, due to the nature of the system used by the Conservatives, was able to count on a strong performance thanks to his popularity in Quebec, which he hoped would allow him to eke out a victory in a divided race. While Bergen and Rempel were popular with the Conservative base, they suffered as the party sought to avoid having a third leader in a row from the Prairies, while Poilievre, who had initially hoped to gain most of Kenney's supporters, saw his support decrease due to his divisive personality. A stumbling campaign from Moore, though, led to a narrow victory for Watts, becoming the first non-interim female Leader of the Opposition. While some speculated that the Conservatives' infighting would continue with Moore's second narrow defeat, this proved not to be the case. While Moore would offer strong support to Watts, he would opt not to run in the following election.
The NDP also went through a leadership election, as Nathan Cullen resigned after the party continued to lose seats in the 2022 election. With most of these losses coming from Quebec, it became clear that the party needed its next leader to be from that province. However, it was not clear that this would actually happen. The remaining Quebec MPs had low-profiles nationally, and were not the strongest members of the party's shadow cabinet. After several high-profile Quebec members opted not to run, Quebec City MP Raymond Cote quickly managed to win most of the support within the province. While he faced some opposition from longer, more high-profile English MPs, he was nevertheless able to win the leadership after several ballots.
With the Conservatives and NDP having selected their leaders for the next campaign, the only major question was whether Trudeau himself would run again. While he would mark his eleventh year in office by the time of the next election, becoming Canada's fifth longest Prime Minister, he was still relatively young and still personally popular (albeit less so), despite voter fatigue beginning to set in. Though his government had gone through several periods of unpopularity during its second mandate, especially after an aborted, badly handled attempt to introduce mandatory voting, little of this managed to stuck to Trudeau, who developed a reputation as the "Teflon Prime Minister," allowing him to shake off scandals and his own personal gaffes. With this in mind, Liberal members were generally in favour of Trudeau fighting another election, something he announced he would do when he marked his tenth anniversary in office in November 2025.
The 2026 election, though, would be Trudeau's toughest since he first came to office in 2015. Unlike Kenney, Watts had no history as a social conservative and was generally a moderate within her party, preventing the Liberals from running the same campaign they had run in the previous two elections. Furthermore, the Liberals suffered due to the natural disadvantage of time, as voters were beginning to feel tired after 11 years of a Liberal government. Finally, Watts proved to be a popular leader, particularly managing to increase Conservative popularity amongst women and in Ontario. Additionally, the Liberals faced a resurgent NDP in Quebec; while they still led in the province, losses could to the NDP could mean losing the election to the Conservatives. With a majority seemingly out of the question, the Liberal campaign shifted its focus to key swing areas, hoping to solidify their support in Quebec and Ontario, and limit the Conservatives' gains in British Columbia.
Evidently, this strategy paid off. The Liberals managed to hang onto government with a minority and 25 seats more than the Conservatives, with a larger than expected gap between the two both in seats and in the popular vote. Nevertheless, the Conservatives managed to gain 19 seats, primarily in Ontario, though they underperformed expectations in British Columbia, while the NDP managed to win 9, mostly in Quebec. While Liberals celebrated their win, most thoughts turned to how the next few months would unfold, including whether or not the NDP would support the Liberal minority, and whether or not Trudeau would see the Liberals into a fifth campaign. He would not.
Canada's Future:
2015
2018
2022
