unprincipled peter
Donor
OTL, Maximilian II Emanuel of Bavaria stood as a candidate for the vacant throne of Poland, backed by the unpopular former Queen, Marie Casimire Louise de La Grange d'Arquien. His candidacy went nowhere, and the prize went to Francois Louis, Prince of Conti (French backed candidate). Conti moved too slow, and the throne was grabbed by Augustus II (backed by Austria and Russia). Back then the Polish Crown was 'elected' through bribery, coronation ensured by force.
So, what if Maximilian were to win the election? Marie Casimire was a strong proponent of a Polish-French alliance. Max's son, Joseph Ferdinand, was a big player in the upcoming Spanish succession sweepstakes. Let's say, for arguments sake, that France backed Max for political posturing purposes. This moves Max out of the Habsburg sphere and into the French.
Note: if this borders on ridiculous, put forth cogent reasoning on why it is so. Otherwise, please don't derail this into an argument on the election if this is moderately possible, even if not likely. Unless it is borderline ASB, accept it as the WI. I do welcome corrections of the situation as I've presented it.
Assume the death of Joseph Ferdinand a couple years later.
How does life for Poland and the world go?
Allegedly, Augustus had Saxon troops ready to invade to ensure his coronation. With Max beating him there, with French and polish backing, does Augustus dare start a war?
Although Max wasn't the Austrian candidate (the original was John Louis Sobieski), he does come from the Austrian camp, and Joseph Ferdinand is in Austria, where he can be used as leverage. I'm thinking Austria will accept King Max.
Russia has a keen interest. OTL, they swore not to accept a frenchman on the throne, but Max is not french. Russia and Poland are at war with the Ottomans, and strongly desire Poland to stay in that war. What would Max's stance be? Ottomans are nominally a French ally, but with the 9 year war over, France doesn't have to kowtow to them, and has shown in the past that, unless currently needed, France sides with Catholics. Does France allow Max latitude to walk a delicate path (not dropping out of the war) to prevent Russian invasion? If Russia does intervene, how does that go?
Fluttering of butterfly wings, which may, or may not, cause hurricanes:
-political/economic situation of PLC
-governorship of Spanish Netherlands. OTL, Max is governor and uses this position to side with France in the War of Spanish Succession. Who would take the governorship? Presumably a spanishman.
-War of Spanish Succession. This has obvious effects on the WoSS. Without an easy access to SN, Louis XIV has to either alter his plans (including the option of being more conciliatory and possibly avoiding the war) or take SN by force, which may not go so smoothly and gets France off to a bad start. Does Max bring PLC in on the side of France?
-the Great Northern War. OTL, Augustus was the ring leader of starting the war. Folks often think Russia started the show, but they didn't. Augustus tried to get together an alliance of Saxony, Denmark, and Brandenburg to attack Sweden. When Brandenburg declined, Russia was brought into the fold. Without the kingship of Poland, is Augustus still so bold? If his troops tried, and failed, to take the kingship by force, thereby showing the inadequacies of the Saxon army, it is very doubtful Augustus is so bold. If he backed down in the Polish crisis, he may have a chip on his shoulder, and forge ahead in the Swedish endeavor. Here, the war unfolds far differently. After Charles XII kicks Denmark's butt to the curb and crushes Russia at Narva, he now likely pursues Russian forces instead of OTL going into Poland. The Great Northern War becomes the War of How Sweden Crushed Three Nations in One Easy Lesson (or WoHSCTNOEL for short).
Thoughts?
So, what if Maximilian were to win the election? Marie Casimire was a strong proponent of a Polish-French alliance. Max's son, Joseph Ferdinand, was a big player in the upcoming Spanish succession sweepstakes. Let's say, for arguments sake, that France backed Max for political posturing purposes. This moves Max out of the Habsburg sphere and into the French.
Note: if this borders on ridiculous, put forth cogent reasoning on why it is so. Otherwise, please don't derail this into an argument on the election if this is moderately possible, even if not likely. Unless it is borderline ASB, accept it as the WI. I do welcome corrections of the situation as I've presented it.
Assume the death of Joseph Ferdinand a couple years later.
How does life for Poland and the world go?
Allegedly, Augustus had Saxon troops ready to invade to ensure his coronation. With Max beating him there, with French and polish backing, does Augustus dare start a war?
Although Max wasn't the Austrian candidate (the original was John Louis Sobieski), he does come from the Austrian camp, and Joseph Ferdinand is in Austria, where he can be used as leverage. I'm thinking Austria will accept King Max.
Russia has a keen interest. OTL, they swore not to accept a frenchman on the throne, but Max is not french. Russia and Poland are at war with the Ottomans, and strongly desire Poland to stay in that war. What would Max's stance be? Ottomans are nominally a French ally, but with the 9 year war over, France doesn't have to kowtow to them, and has shown in the past that, unless currently needed, France sides with Catholics. Does France allow Max latitude to walk a delicate path (not dropping out of the war) to prevent Russian invasion? If Russia does intervene, how does that go?
Fluttering of butterfly wings, which may, or may not, cause hurricanes:
-political/economic situation of PLC
-governorship of Spanish Netherlands. OTL, Max is governor and uses this position to side with France in the War of Spanish Succession. Who would take the governorship? Presumably a spanishman.
-War of Spanish Succession. This has obvious effects on the WoSS. Without an easy access to SN, Louis XIV has to either alter his plans (including the option of being more conciliatory and possibly avoiding the war) or take SN by force, which may not go so smoothly and gets France off to a bad start. Does Max bring PLC in on the side of France?
-the Great Northern War. OTL, Augustus was the ring leader of starting the war. Folks often think Russia started the show, but they didn't. Augustus tried to get together an alliance of Saxony, Denmark, and Brandenburg to attack Sweden. When Brandenburg declined, Russia was brought into the fold. Without the kingship of Poland, is Augustus still so bold? If his troops tried, and failed, to take the kingship by force, thereby showing the inadequacies of the Saxon army, it is very doubtful Augustus is so bold. If he backed down in the Polish crisis, he may have a chip on his shoulder, and forge ahead in the Swedish endeavor. Here, the war unfolds far differently. After Charles XII kicks Denmark's butt to the curb and crushes Russia at Narva, he now likely pursues Russian forces instead of OTL going into Poland. The Great Northern War becomes the War of How Sweden Crushed Three Nations in One Easy Lesson (or WoHSCTNOEL for short).
Thoughts?