Alternate John Kerry Running Mates

THE OBSERVER

What if, instead of giving up his Senate seat in an attempt to run for President in 2004 and ending up as Kerry's V.P., John Edwards runs for reelection in North Carolina. Who do you think would John Kerry's running mate be? Gephardt? Daschle?

One more thing, with Edwards running for reelection, does he win and would this butterfly away Rielle Hunter and allow him to run without problems in 2008? And what would an Edwards Presidency in 2008 be like? I assume that there would be a great focus on poverty and in some areas, he would be more liberal and active than Obama.
 

Herman Gigglethorpe

THE OBSERVER said:
What if, instead of giving up his Senate seat in an attempt to run for President in 2004 and ending up as Kerry's V.P., John Edwards runs for reelection in North Carolina. Who do you think would John Kerry's running mate be? Gephardt? Daschle?

One more thing, with Edwards running for reelection, does he win and would this butterfly away Rielle Hunter and allow him to run without problems in 2008? And what would an Edwards Presidency in 2008 be like? I assume that there would be a great focus on poverty and in some areas, he would be more liberal and active than Obama.
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Would a Democrat do all that well in 2008 following a Kerry presidency? It's well-known that my fellow Americans have a two-week memory and blame whoever is the current President for everything. :D

Seriously, whoever is elected President in 2004 will get a lot of flack for the economy, regardless of how fair the accusations are. They will associate Edwards with "failed" Democratic policies. 2004 is too late to prevent the economic collapse, as the bad loans and complicated derivatives were already coming into place.

As for everyone's favorite Breck Girl John Edwards, he won't meet Rielle Hunter in this timeline, since apparently they met in 2006. Considering he's the type to cheat on his cancer-stricken wife, he'll be certain to do SOMETHING to alienate the public. I imagine half the fun of writing American politics timelines is coming up with gaffes and October Surprises. :)

However, Elizabeth Edwards might die of cancer (first diagnosed in late 2004) before Edwards commits adultery, meaning his reputation hobbles along a bit longer. This is really the only hope alternate Edwards has, in a very perverse sort of way.

His large house and preference for expensive haircuts may allow the Republicans to attack him as a "limousine liberal" too if sex scandals don't sink his political career. How successful these political ads will be is up to the timeline writer.
 

Just a Rube

Herman Gigglethorpe said:
Would a Democrat do all that well in 2008 following a Kerry presidency? It's well-known that my fellow Americans have a two-week memory and blame whoever is the current President for everything. :D
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Kerry probably still loses (VP rarely makes much difference, although admittedly Ohio was very close).

Edwards probably cheats on his wife with a different woman; his political career probably depends at least partially on when that's discovered.

That said, he may very easily lose his senate seat anyway; 2004 will probably still be a Republican year, especially in the South, and he's only served one term (that seat also had a reputation for flipping parties every election). Obviously, being a losing Senate candidate is much harder to bounce back from than being a losing VP candidate, so his national star will probably be dimmed.
 

SLCer

I don't think Edwards runs for reelection regardless if he's picked as Kerry's running mate or not. In fact, I believe he announced in 2003 he wouldn't run - probably because he stood little chance of winning reelection anyway.
 

JVM

Graham's the best choice in hindsight but I don't think Kerry took him too seriously as a candidate. I think Gerphadt could've been an interesting running mate. I'm curious how the convention and VP debate would be affected - Kerry seemed to adopt a lot of Edwards' ideas at the convention, which IMO might've hurt him. And I think Gerphadt would've done better against Cheney.
 
Andrew T

Andrew T

A Kerry/Graham 2004 TL would make for a very interesting TL; assuming that Graham performs slightly better in the VP debate and sucks less on the campaign trial (call that a +1 to Kerry), and brings a +3 advantage in his home state of FL.

So Kerry/Graham win all of OTL's states plus Iowa and New Mexico, each of which Kerry lost by less than 1%.

That gives you an election night result of:

Kerry/Graham 264 EV
Bush/Cheney 227 EV

with Ohio (20 EV) and Florida (27 EV) both too close to call. The Bush campaign manages to thread the needle, winning both (possibly both by under 1%), with the same massive irregularities in both states as OTL.

I think an event like that -- a very unpopular Bush being perceived as backing into the Presidency twice -- might trigger the Democratic equivalent of the Tea Party in 2004, with the resultant "Blue Wave" elections of 2006 and 2008 electing hard-left Netroots candidates and the Democrats functioning in the same obstructionist path as OTL's Tea Party Republicans.

And I agree with the first few posters that this probably sweeps John Edwards into office in 2008.
 

THE OBSERVER

Andrew T said:
A Kerry/Graham 2004 TL would make for a very interesting TL; assuming that Graham performs slightly better in the VP debate and sucks less on the campaign trial (call that a +1 to Kerry), and brings a +3 advantage in his home state of FL.

So Kerry/Graham win all of OTL's states plus Iowa and New Mexico, each of which Kerry lost by less than 1%.

That gives you an election night result of:

Kerry/Graham 264 EV
Bush/Cheney 227 EV

with Ohio (20 EV) and Florida (27 EV) both too close to call. The Bush campaign manages to thread the needle, winning both (possibly both by under 1%), with the same massive irregularities in both states as OTL.

I think an event like that -- a very unpopular Bush being perceived as backing into the Presidency twice -- might trigger the Democratic equivalent of the Tea Party in 2004, with the resultant "Blue Wave" elections of 2006 and 2008 electing hard-left Netroots candidates and the Democrats functioning in the same obstructionist path as OTL's Tea Party Republicans.

And I agree with the first few posters that this probably sweeps John Edwards into office in 2008.
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And then what does an Edwards presidency turn out to be? The 'Second Coming' of JFK and RFK? He had a lot of liberal ideas. And I was also surprised that hcallega didn't have him win the Democratic Primary and the 2008 Election in "Decision Points." Perhaps in an updated version of that TL or one dealing with a McCain Presidency in 2000 will have him win in '08. That's an interesting road.
 
Andrew T

Andrew T

THE OBSERVER said:
And then what does an Edwards presidency turn out to be? The 'Second Coming' of JFK and RFK? He had a lot of liberal ideas. And I was also surprised that hcallega didn't have him win the Democratic Primary and the 2008 Election in "Decision Points." Perhaps in an updated version of that TL or one dealing with a McCain Presidency in 2000 will have him win in '08. That's an interesting road.
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Forget Edwards's politics for a moment.

Edwards in 2008 is a figure so crazy that if he were invented in a TL, people would be screaming "ASB!" I mean, here's someone with a high-profile cancer-stricken wife who's quite active on the campaign trail. Not only does Edwards engage in an affair, but he sets up an entire shadow family! While running for President. In 2008. After Donna Rice and Monica Lewinsky. No sane individual could have possibly thought that he could have gotten away with this.

So that gives us two potential diagnoses: either extreme megalomania -- an irrational belief that although everyone else would get caught, for some reason it just couldn't happen to him. That's pretty scary. Of course, the alternative would be some sort of deep-seated self-loathing/self-destructiveness; that is, Edwards knew he would be caught but was somehow compelled to plough ahead anyway. Or, you know, it could be both.

I don't know, that seems to scream out "For All Time" to me.
 

JVM

Edwards is a hideously overrated politician.

How about Kerry/Kucinich to take over Ohio :p
 

ColeMercury

Just a Rube said:
Edwards probably cheats on his wife with a different woman; his political career probably depends at least partially on when that's discovered.
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I'm hesitant to rely too heavily on the book "Game Change" (a.k.a. "Race of a Lifetime") when it comes to Edwards, given that whoever their source is clearly has a HUGE axe to grind when it comes to Elizabeth -- but according to that book, Edwards actually fell in love with Hunter. So this isn't guaranteed.
 
Andrew T

Andrew T

ColeMercury said:
I'm hesitant to rely too heavily on the book "Game Change" (a.k.a. "Race of a Lifetime") when it comes to Edwards, given that whoever their source is clearly has a HUGE axe to grind when it comes to Elizabeth -- but according to that book, Edwards actually fell in love with Hunter. So this isn't guaranteed.
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I agree that a an alt-Rielle Hunter isn't guaranteed to arise with a POD in 2004, but (as per above) I do wonder about the sanity of any man who thinks he can carry on such an affair with relative impunity during the 2008 Presidential election -- particularly given the degree to which Elizabeth was hauled out as a campaign surrogate.
 

Blurgle

Herman Gigglethorpe said:
As for everyone's favorite Breck Girl John Edwards, he won't meet Rielle Hunter in this timeline, since apparently they met in 2006. Considering he's the type to cheat on his cancer-stricken wife, he'll be certain to do SOMETHING to alienate the public. I imagine half the fun of writing American politics timelines is coming up with gaffes and October Surprises. :)

However, Elizabeth Edwards might die of cancer (first diagnosed in late 2004) before Edwards commits adultery, meaning his reputation hobbles along a bit longer.
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If John Edwards has sex with a woman after Elizabeth dies, it won't be adultery unless the woman is married. I suspect even conservative voters will shrug off a widower VP having a girlfriend.

Second, I doubt Elizabeth Edwards's prognosis will change much if Edwards is elected VP in 2004. She's going to face roughly the same level of stress as a philandering VP's wife as she would as a philandering senator's wife and she'll receive roughly the same medical care, and the cancer cells aren't going to change their wicked ways. She may die a few weeks earlier or later due to butterflies, but I doubt there will be any significant change.
 
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