Looking at the LNA’s close association with Wagner today, one may discount this as “ASB.” But it is very plausible.
1. The LNA was technically the armed forces of the official Libyan government of the time.
2. Haftar at this time had a good degree of support among western politicians and his excesses had not revealed themselves yet.
3. The US literally partnered with the YPG in Syria, despite Turkeys very strong objections since it formed as a splinter of a terror group.
4. At this time there was panic about IS and the LNA was battling them in Derna.
So assuming Obama partners with them, discarding the otl attempt to remain strictly neutral in Libya,
1. LNA, not Misrata brigades under the GNA spearhead the Sirte operation. And the GNA is butterflied away.
2. Seeing the train-and-equip of the LNA plus strong airstrikes in their favor, the opportunistic Tripoli brigades such as RADAA, Nawasi, and Tripoli Revolutionary Brigades defect to the House of Representatives government, essentially joining the LNA.
3. Misrata becomes the bastion of anti Haftar resistance, however due to greater American involvement, its attempts to help the Benghazi Shura Council come under more scrutiny, and once Greatee Tripoli and Sirte are secured, the LNA will likely launch an offensive on a likely radicalized Misrata (which would be a safe haven for non isis Jihadis as they have lost all hope of international support anyway.) America probably won’t provide *direct* backing here, but the train and equip will continue as America will want to prop up its partners until its sure IS is gone.
4. This will no doubt end in a dictatorship under Haftar as he centralizes his authority, and America will overlook this, as this wouldn’t be a “nation building.” Probably as oil flows Libya will enjoy reconstruction and an economic revival, but human rights will br awful.
1. The LNA was technically the armed forces of the official Libyan government of the time.
2. Haftar at this time had a good degree of support among western politicians and his excesses had not revealed themselves yet.
3. The US literally partnered with the YPG in Syria, despite Turkeys very strong objections since it formed as a splinter of a terror group.
4. At this time there was panic about IS and the LNA was battling them in Derna.
So assuming Obama partners with them, discarding the otl attempt to remain strictly neutral in Libya,
1. LNA, not Misrata brigades under the GNA spearhead the Sirte operation. And the GNA is butterflied away.
2. Seeing the train-and-equip of the LNA plus strong airstrikes in their favor, the opportunistic Tripoli brigades such as RADAA, Nawasi, and Tripoli Revolutionary Brigades defect to the House of Representatives government, essentially joining the LNA.
3. Misrata becomes the bastion of anti Haftar resistance, however due to greater American involvement, its attempts to help the Benghazi Shura Council come under more scrutiny, and once Greatee Tripoli and Sirte are secured, the LNA will likely launch an offensive on a likely radicalized Misrata (which would be a safe haven for non isis Jihadis as they have lost all hope of international support anyway.) America probably won’t provide *direct* backing here, but the train and equip will continue as America will want to prop up its partners until its sure IS is gone.
4. This will no doubt end in a dictatorship under Haftar as he centralizes his authority, and America will overlook this, as this wouldn’t be a “nation building.” Probably as oil flows Libya will enjoy reconstruction and an economic revival, but human rights will br awful.