Alternate Electoral Maps
- Thread starter Tayya
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That looks so much like OTL 1976. Even the national percentages look close.
John McCormack: 299 EV OR 256 EV, 50.2%
Gerald Ford 239 EV OR 282 EV, 48.5%
I was not sure if the Conservative Party of New York should count for the Republicans, because most of the time the Conservatives buddied up with the Republicans. Due to this, I used the no Conservatives for the map, but it is possible that Gerald won.
In my timeline I also have Jackson run against Clinton, with his strength primarily coming from New England. Though given that it involves issues regarding an independent Quebec it probably wouldn't help.
Your map looks okay, though Jackson definitely wouldn't win New York - in 1992 Jackson's endorsement played a big part in Jerry Brown's loss, for instance. I'm also skeptical that he would win West Virginia. All in all I think he'd do worse in the midwest and slightly better in the south (probably winning someplace like South Carolina, for instance).
The same reason Pat Buchanan ran against Bush in 1992. Just like many on the right were upset with Bush, by early 1995 (when candidates would likely start their campaigns) many on the left weren't thrilled with Clinton (thinking he was too centrist and unable to accomplish much). IOTL many on the left tried to convince Jackson, Bernie Sanders, and others to mount a primary challenge (with Clinton's staff privately stating they were terrified of a Jackson campaign) but nobody was willing to do so. If things went worse for Clinton, this could easily have changed.
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shiftygiant
Gone Fishin'
Thank you, I'll post a revised version when I get to it.
For context, Clinton is unable to get out the hole he was throw in during the mid-terms as quickly as he did IoTL, resulting in the Left successfully pushing Jackson into taking the plunge.
2011 United States Election
Republican Party - 39.62% PV - 379 EV
Democratic Socialist Party - 30.63% PV - 155 EV
Democratic Party - 18.91% PV - 4 EV
Western Separatist League - 6.04% PV - 0 EV
Green Party - 3.91% PV - 0 EV
Independents - 0.91% PV - 0 EV
2015 United States Election
Democratic Party - 39.47% PV - 413 EV
Republican Party - 31.89% PV - 119 EV
Democratic Socialist Party - 19.71% PV - 6 EV
Western Separatist League - 4.66% PV - 0 EV
Green Party - 3.45% PV - 0 EV
Independents - 0.82% PV - 0 EV
Republican Party - 39.62% PV - 379 EV
Democratic Socialist Party - 30.63% PV - 155 EV
Democratic Party - 18.91% PV - 4 EV
Western Separatist League - 6.04% PV - 0 EV
Green Party - 3.91% PV - 0 EV
Independents - 0.91% PV - 0 EV
2015 United States Election
Democratic Party - 39.47% PV - 413 EV
Republican Party - 31.89% PV - 119 EV
Democratic Socialist Party - 19.71% PV - 6 EV
Western Separatist League - 4.66% PV - 0 EV
Green Party - 3.45% PV - 0 EV
Independents - 0.82% PV - 0 EV
I already did a 2015-Canada-as-2012-America (only North Carolina flipped from Romney to Obama), but this reminds me, maybe I should do more.2011 United States Election
Republican Party - 39.62% PV - 379 EV
Democratic Socialist Party - 30.63% PV - 155 EV
Democratic Party - 18.91% PV - 4 EV
Western Separatist League - 6.04% PV - 0 EV
Green Party - 3.91% PV - 0 EV
Independents - 0.91% PV - 0 EV
2015 United States Election
Democratic Party - 39.47% PV - 413 EV
Republican Party - 31.89% PV - 119 EV
Democratic Socialist Party - 19.71% PV - 6 EV
Western Separatist League - 4.66% PV - 0 EV
Green Party - 3.45% PV - 0 EV
Independents - 0.82% PV - 0 EV
I first had an algorithm to set the percentage of the non-three major parties in each state (just scaling the existing percentage by the same factor up seemed to work well - as the areas where third parties already did well seem conductive to a Western Separatist Party and the Greens).
Second, using PVI I determined the Republican vote share by state (and accordingly - what segment of Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and Others voted Republican by state).
I then divided the remainder based on Demographic composition (assuming that the Democratic Socialists would be mostly White Liberals - and the Democrats would mostly be a rainbow coalition) - with the exact percentages each part receives being adjusted to meet the general election results.
Once you have the base it's not too difficult - I think I only have 6 inputs (4 Demographic, two electoral)
It would be interesting to combine my maps with those - I'd be very interested if someone does have one
Reagent, could you make a map of the polling at the start of the campaign, when the NDP was at a high?
39% NDP
28% Con
26% Lib
05% Bloc
03% Green
39% NDP
28% Con
26% Lib
05% Bloc
03% Green
Sure. Do you want me to show percentages and Electoral Votes by state - or can I expedite the process by just showing the winner of each state?
EDIT: that adds up to 101%
Just show the winner of each state.
Huh. Take one away from the Greens, they won't win anything anyway.
Just show the winner of each state.
Huh. Take one away from the Greens, they won't win anything anyway.
Democratic Socialist Party - 39% PV - 444 EV
Republican Party - 28% PV - 90 EV
Democratic Party - 26% PV - 4 EV
Western Separatist League - 4% PV - 0 EV
Green Party - 2% PV - 0 EV
Independents - 1% PV - 0 EV
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