Romanos_the_Fourth
Banned
If Valens had eked out a sound victory over the Goths at the battle of Adrianople, would the Roman Empire's lifespan have been prolonged? And how would Roman/Byzantine culture develop from that point?
Alternate Adrianople Aftermath
- Thread starter Romanos_the_Fourth
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Dragos Cel Mare
Banned
Mavia wouldn't have lost credibility and valuable troops, gets rewarded for her role in the victory, and hopefully, said rewards allow her descendants to start an earlier Arab Expansion - as Christianized, Romanized Arabs?
Romanos_the_Fourth
Banned
Would the Valentinian Dynasty survive a little longer, or would Theodosius & Co. rise to power as in OTL?
Dragos Cel Mare
Banned
Hopefully the former; Theodosius let too many Goths into the army.
Edit: And wasn't afraid to betray other Christians like Mavia's Tanukhids, who had just demonstrated their loyalty.
It would probably have been prolonged by a few decades at least, although most of the structural problems which led to the fall were already present.
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
Mavia's Tanukhid Arabs, as Dragos had mentioned, wouldn't have lost their prestige and would likely have filled in a role similar to that of the Germanic tribes had on the Western Roman Empire - likely Romanized Arab families would climb up the social ladder and may eventually become Emperors themselves. Maybe soft Byzantine influence would encourage the creation of a Greek-derived alphabet for the Arabic language, maybe spread by Roman-educated Orthodox clergymen?
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Romanos_the_Fourth
Banned
I don' t think the Empire was necessarily doomed until Honorius's day, although there was indeed a mountain of glitches in Rome's infrastructure as early as the 200's. I would venture to say that the fate of the WRE really depends on the sort of Emperor in charge; after all, the ERE seemed to be in a collosal mess following Manzikert, and then you had Alexios Komnenos...
...But that is another story.
The Tanukhids seem to be the most interesting butterflies from this event, but I do think there are others. There's a mention on Wikipedia of Danubian arms factories being destroyed in the aftermath; would the Romans have been able to hold the Danube as a frontier better with an Adrianople victory? Would the Slavs have settled the Balkans differently?
Romanos_the_Fourth
Banned
It would be interesting to see what happens when the WRE finally does fall. I doubt that the Goths, Vandals, Burgundians or even the Huns would be much of a problem (assuming that they don't form some sort of unlikely pact with one another). The very best case scenario for the alternate decline of the WRE would be a gradual balkanization, would it not?
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Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
You'd still have problems with other Germanic tribes - it would be a more gradual decline over a few centuries: the peripheral regions in the West would likely slip away but nothing like North Africa being seized by the Vandals. As for the Huns, they would not be as powerful as they were IOTL under Attila without their core component of Goths supplying extra manpower. I'd see the Western Roman Empire becoming something akin to the Shogunate: if the Emperor becomes a relatively powerless figurehead, the Magister Militum would become the person with the actual reigns of power. Old Roman senatorial families and upstart Germanic newcomers would fight each other to hold influence over the Emperor - wars would be much more localized and shorter. Think smaller, more mobile armies based in fortified cities and fortifications, spending their time fighting over each other because their commander is power-hungry. Officially, the Western Empire won't fall but it'd be a different beast than the Empire of Augustus or Constantine's time.
I really want to read this TL, with a Western Roman Shogunate, a bit stronger Eastern Roman Empire, Romanizing Arabs....
I think you could still see peripheral parts of the WRE break off. Britannia's gone and probably goes a similar route to OTL and North Africa might break free or else realign to the ERE (is this plausible?). Hispania, Gallia, and Italia all feudalize; I'm imagining an alt-HRE level of decentralization.
What happens to Germania?
I think you could still see peripheral parts of the WRE break off. Britannia's gone and probably goes a similar route to OTL and North Africa might break free or else realign to the ERE (is this plausible?). Hispania, Gallia, and Italia all feudalize; I'm imagining an alt-HRE level of decentralization.
What happens to Germania?
With Valens defeating the Goths at Adrianople, the Goths are likely broken up, settled across the empire, and assimilated within a generation or two. This probably butterflies away the rest of the Gothic war and the First Sack of Rome in 410.
Valens probably lives a few more years which could impact Magnus Maximus' rebellion and keep Gratian and Valentinian II from dying when they did. At the very least the West should be more stable without the civil wars that followed Adrianople and the disastrous reign of Honorius.
Valens probably lives a few more years which could impact Magnus Maximus' rebellion and keep Gratian and Valentinian II from dying when they did. At the very least the West should be more stable without the civil wars that followed Adrianople and the disastrous reign of Honorius.
Romanos_the_Fourth
Banned
Very interesting. I can imagine a rogue General in the spirit of Bonifatius revolting and setting up his own realm in N. Africa. As for the Germans...
...They will probably go on being a cauldron of warring petty Kingdoms, although it is almost inevitable that someone will emerge larger than the rest.
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Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
Yes, would be fun!
Yes, Britannia would likely slip away, if not out of the Empire officially withdrawing from the area but the area throwing out the Empire. 410 was the official date of the Empire's departure from Britain but Roman Britain was already on life support for several decades prior - you'd had multiple usurpers using the garrison in Britain to jumpstart their attempts to overthrow the Roman Emperor - depriving the island of professional manpower to handle the problem of raids. One of them - Magnus Maximus had delegated the role of military defense to a mix of his Roman officers and petty British tribal chieftains who quickly set up their own kingdoms after his death. The south and eastern areas - more influenced by Roman civilization - would likely still retain some sort of loose association with the Empire. It'd be an easier target for anyone too weak to take on the Empire and its feudatories.
http://www.historyfiles.co.uk/FeaturesBritain/BritishSouthernBritain04.htm#Caer Lundein
But what if some enterprising Britannian invents the stirrup? 
On a serious note, if the Saxon invasions of Britain are butterflied (which seems kind of unlikely) Britannia stays at least somewhat in the Roman sphere and probably gets invaded by Gaul to be "reincorporated into the Empire" at some point, probably by a general seeking Britannia for himself.
In the long term I'm wondering if some Eastern Roman looks at the Western mess and decides to reunite the Empire. Would make for some good old fashioned bloody chaos
On a serious note, if the Saxon invasions of Britain are butterflied (which seems kind of unlikely) Britannia stays at least somewhat in the Roman sphere and probably gets invaded by Gaul to be "reincorporated into the Empire" at some point, probably by a general seeking Britannia for himself.
In the long term I'm wondering if some Eastern Roman looks at the Western mess and decides to reunite the Empire. Would make for some good old fashioned bloody chaos
Romanos_the_Fourth
Banned
That is certainly a possibility. I would hope otherwise, though, for the sake of Latin culture.
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
Given how the Gothic War IOTL destroyed Roman Italy and tore it apart, the same would likely happen if the Eastern Emperor entertained the idea of reuniting the Empire. IOTL the Lombards arrived not too long after the Ostrogoths were defeated and Italy was "restored" to Roman rule. If anything, you'd open Italy up to a Germanic or even Slavic invader to swoop in and take control.
Romanos_the_Fourth
Banned
As long as the WRE holds, so does Italy (unless there ends up being a Nepos-style Rump State elsewhere).