Alt WWI and the Ottoman Empire

[durante]

Regarding the OP, sorry I diverged a bit to answer other questions. I have a few comments on the OP

1) I don't see what is in it for Bulgaria to ally with Russia against the Ottomans? It has lost territory to Serbia (especially if we count San Stefano and where that territory it had to retrocede eventually ended up), Greece (especially in seeing Greece gain Salonika before they could get there) and Romania (the Southern Dobruja). While obviously they have their sights on Constantinople or parts of Eastern Thrace, they aren't going to get any of that if Russia is leading their alliance, because Russia will keep it all for themselves. I also cannot see either of Serbia or Romania ending up AGAINST Russia in this scenario, so Bulgaria can't go looking for compensation there.

2) Germany certainly wants the Ottoman Empire to survive - it has invested heavily in the railways, not just to Baghdad, but in feeder lines thereafter opening Persia up to German commerce. It has a degree of control over the Ottoman army, as well. AFAIK Germany's view was that IF the Ottoman Empire DID collapse then the successor state controlling the Straits would need to be German or pro-German. Russia certainly believed in the possibility that this meant that Germany would either seek to take it for themselves, or for the Habsburgs, or erect a puppet there.

3) I actually DO like the idea of an Armenian cassus belli. I just think it would play out differently and how it does would need to be seen in the light of other considerations and crises likely to be happening around the same time

That's perfectly fine, the OP was how I kind of saw things on first reading, my intention was to explore the different scenarios. I'm very grateful for everyone's input.

If war is avoided over Serbia in 1914...Albania is actually currently being threatened by both Greece and Italy. Potentially, the Kaiser could even pull some of the same chain of events, by telling Austria they have complete backing and that they must back their prince?

 

[durante]

So we generally feel that without FFs death, Austria cant make as strong a demand in response. Also with FF alive, he doesnt overplay his hand? Serbia and Austria enter negotiations, Russia isn't provoked for the time being...but Germany is likely to still encourage Austria in regards to Albania. I cant see Italy risking war with Germany and Austria over Albania in 1914...but this is likely to break the Triple Alliance. Italy starts talking to France? Germany is focused on a solution between Greece and Turkey to shore up defences against Russia...who is continuing to build there army but also increasingly in turmoil.

Britain may begin to fear Russia more than Germany?

Without WWI, the Baghdad-Berlin railway is completed sometime between 1915 and 1918, probably on the sooner end.

How would that affect the balance of power?

Is France-Italy-Russia versus Turkey-Britain-Germany-Austria an actual possibility?

Does anybody else feel like playing "Diplomacy"?