Alt-demographics

archaeogeek

Banned
So reading up on migrations I get a vague feeling that migrations are a toss-up that's not explored all that much.
I mean... the anglo-saxons could have pushed the franks further south, leading to, say, a Frankish lorraine, larger flemish expansion in Belgica, repercussions would probably have been a more celtic britain, but a much much smaller brittany, probably just what's today the KLT part of Brittany (so Finistère and bits and odds of Cotes d'Armor and Morbihan). Or they might have settled Galicia instead, or nothing lasting and just disappeared except as a memory like in modern Galicia. A Scandinavian minority could well still have influenced Brythonic massively.

Then you get things like the Avars who more or less disappear, or rather probably become parts of the south slavs after the magyar invasions. Eastern magyars could probably lead to a much less southward push of the south-slavs, maybe leading to a much larger Croatia as the historical Serb-Croat divide wouldn't be happening.

The plague led to a situation where albanians settled across all of Epirus, and along the slavs, large swathes of Greece, although the Arvanitiki will today pretend they were always, forever, since the dawn of times, greek (this is nationalist bullshit, most of them came about as part of the hosts of albanian warlords well before the ottoman empire set up shop in the Balkans). But it also led to the early Arbereshe settlements (although they're usually associated with Skanderbeg's defeat, there are hints of the Arbereshe being present in the region much before... half of me sort of wonders how close Messapic would have been to ancient Dardanian, while they would likely not have evolved similarly, the chances of closely related dialects in close contact mingling or replacing one are not necessarily discountable; of course, officially these areas were Italic or Greek because that's what the imperial upper class spoke in Apulia-Calabria)

The conquest of the emirate of Sicily, plus the plague, also led to a demographic remodelling of Sicily: it was heavily greek, with some slight romance and arabic input. But this demographic remodelling also involved siphoning the largest part of the settlers during the crusade. What if the position of the settlers could be inverted and instead of albanians in Achaia and Athens and latins in Sicily, we got an Arbereshe Sicily and a latinate Morea with strong Vlach influence from Epirus and Thessaly. Without Serbs, maybe all of Moesia becomes Latinate, instead of just Moesia inferior (Wallachia-Moldova). Or maybe a Turkic Bulgar wank turkifies the region, or the magyars actually move there and "Romania" is Epirus-Athens-Achaea...

Anatolia is a fun one, because it's such a melting pot - a grecowank, taken far enough in the past, is of course possible (although as noted my greco-wank also happens in a world where Achaea is a mixed griko/"morean" society, which would not be pretty once nationalism strikes). Western and Northern Anatolia, plus Thrace and Macedonia are possible.

At the same time you could have a more turkish Bulgaria if it survives. A larger Azerbaidjan could replace mass migration of turks in Anatolia, maybe instead merely a small state like the Karamanids. Or maybe the Azeris and Turks displaced enough caucasian peoples that Armenia is now in southern Anatolia, and Pontus-Cappadocia remains an Iranian speaking region. Or Georgians and Alans emigrate in one enough to make it the new Georgia, with a larger Ossetian presence.

Instead of Balkanization, today we'd be talking about Anatolization ;)

There's the possibility of a Catalanophone Sardinia.
There's the possibility of a gothic Crimea; or maybe a magyar one.

Okay I'm out of immediate ideas. Thoughts? I've been trying to figure out when the Bactria was settled by turks as well, but I admit I have only a vague idea and I might be wrong to assume they came around the time of the seljuks. Removing the Bani Halal from Ifriqiya might lead to a more powerful berber or neo-punic state in the region?
 
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Yeah, we have quite a few Migration Period TLs. They seem to give the result of a Europe both recognizable and unrecognizable simultaneously.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
It's a bit WIP-ish, but the core ideas in the west are set
By region
- British Isles: Celto-wank, yes, I know. The germanic blue bits are two scandinavian pockets (and by pockets, they're large enough to be nations of their own, well maybe not the Jutish bits). I'm thinking of actually expanding the Danish bits in the middle a bit, but not much. Norse up north, although they also assimilated the Isles. There will probably be three separate celtic languages in the northern section.
- Iberia: again with the Celto-wank ;) - Portugal is Celtic, but lacks Alentejo and Algarve, Galicia will probably occupy a position akin to what it is OTL although in a much smaller Castille-Leon. I put CL in a different region as Aragon+Murcia but it will likely be romance like OTL. Yellow is Basques; they lasted slightly longer as Navarra ITTL. They also had a Portugal-like situation when annexed to Spain. Al-andalus will probably be a berber, semitic, latinate and tartessian melting pot. I'll figure out the language eventually :p - there's chances I'll have Ibiza separated from the Baleares and have one or the other go to the latinate and the semitic zones.
- Gallia+Italia: much larger germanic penetration takes Comital Burgundy, Picardy and Lorraine, plus Walloon lands including the northern Champagne (Rethel, Sedan, Bouillon and co). However, apart from Labourd and Lower Navarra, the rest is entirely latinate. Half of me feels like having a Brythenig alike celto-latinate language in Britanny anyway just to be a cunt. Similarly, Italia is almost entirely latinate, however, I am swapping Albanian and "frankish" colonization in the crusades era. I'll probably reserve a full post for this bit. End result, though, is that OTL Calabria has slowly been renamed Sicilia, while old roman Calabria has recovered its name. The Orange albanian bits on the continent are a mistake from when I had Greek, Albanian and Armenian the same color: they're Griko, with the exception of Lecce/Leqë. The romance area in the alps is much larger, including OTL Carniola, Croatia Proper and mega-Istria (i.e. the Kustenland) - plus Rhaetia. Rhaeto-romance is a much larger language, here spread over Tyrol, Vorarlberg and Sankt-Gallen/Appenzell cantons, while Veneto-Illyrian is more different from Italo-Romance dialects than OTL. I decided to murder a butterfly to have a germanic enclave in Liechtenstein anyway for the lulz. The yellow in Corsica is not a basque wank, but Etruscan survival. The temptation is still strong to have it be in Sardinia. Hilarious factoid: a lot of ethnic demographics are not very far from OTL when checking the details, just with different borders.
For the gist of the south italian situation: more talented crusader princes in Greece manage to not have frankish settlers snatched from under their nose by the kings of Sicily, lead to it being less available for resetlement of Albanians from overpopulated regions, so instead the sicilian kings start using them as settlers, and mercenaries. With the effects of the plague having been horribly devastating on the island (I might be wrong but the way I heard of it, the plague in Sicily was basically the single deadliest part of it), the newcomers slowly build up large feudal networks. Alt-Sicilian Vespers lead to the major albanian noble houses carving themselves principalities on the island, which will end up being vaguely united under a Dukagjini prince of "Arberian Sicily" which will be contrasted with "Peninsular Sicily" in southern Calabria. This also leads to no switch of the Calabria name to the tip of the boot, and it remains the heel. Sicilian as a language is still found ITTL in most of OTL Calabria, but also the Basilicate, TTL Calabria and pockets in Insular Sicily, especially among the aristocracy.
- Germania plus odd bits of Central Europe:
Pomerania is actually not part of it but I decided to do colors by language family which I'm slowly realizing is dumb as hell. It's actually a Scandinavian exclave. Frisia remains much larger while the frankish dialects that would become OTL dutch are now entirely in the southern Netherlands + Brabant.
Austria will most likely be germanic, I was just too lazy to finish it up. Avaria will replace Pomerania as a drang-nach-osten kind of expy, but a large part of Hungary will be south slavic. I'll cover it in the Balkans. Transylvania is a Germano-Vlach-Gagauz weird entity with a Turkic Bulgar and German aristocracy. Basically I swapped the magyars for bolgars. I like timeline rhymes.
- The mess otherwise known as the Balkans and Anatolia:
South slavs are removed from Slovenia, Croatia proper and Macedonia (the borders of which will be moved a bit southwards in the east, however). They are, however, dominant in Kosovo and Albania, although the territory which was the OTL Vilayet/Pashaluk/Province of Shkodër is a bit of a Kosovo-like thorn in the side of the Slavonics, but to a lesser extent. The only slavic bit in Bulgaria is Vidin. Vallachia and Northern Bulgaria are Turkic Bulgars instead. Moldovia replaces Bohemia and along with Galicia and bits of Volhynia is actually western slavic ITTL - half of me is tempted to make Moldovia Vlach anyway though.
Replacing OTL Romania, however, are Epirus and the Greek crusader states. The purple bits in Anatolia and the rest of the Balkans is Hellas. Anatolia will be the balkanized half of the area (lol) with probably a split between muslim, orthodox and catholic/cilician Armenians. The Pontus region still retains an iranian language, while Southwestern Anatolia, I still have no idea what to do with: probabilities are it will be a turkish exclave, although Azerbaidjan will be much bigger. Caucasian demographics will be a mess to think up but there's chances they won't be much different.
Instead of Crimean Tatars, we have Crimean Magyars.
And yes the Orange in the southern ionian islands is perfectly intentional. Like I said, the Balkans and southern italy will likely get their own tl;dr post.
- North Africa and the Middle East
Brown in Mauritania is for Moorish Berbers, Brown in Ifriqiya is for Arabs, Aferi Berbers and Neo-punics. Okay I suck, I'll arrange this later. The rest is likely going to be firmly arabic with maybe a somewhat larger influence of Coptic as a language (expect Coptic Cyrenaica).
- For the rest, I'm still unsure tbh. I'm thinking of having a bit of an Azeri wank in the Caucasus, with lots of population movements from the kurds, armenians, ossetians and caucasians.

I know it's not that different from OTL migrations, but it was something I felt like trying out :p

XIXCentEuropeanDemographics.png
 
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I'm expecting that the Germanic and Celtic peoples in Britain will bounce around a lot and eventually mix (or at least intermingle).
 

archaeogeek

Banned
I'm expecting that the Germanic and Celtic peoples in Britain will bounce around a lot and eventually mix (or at least intermingle).

Yeah, for now I'm doing solid color for the base idea but I'll do a pastiche 19th century ethnographic map and it will have bits and blobs showing my thoughts about ethnic situations better; also it will probably have shades of to show different languages or group; for example I'm having a Gaelic speaking Gwynedd (but "Portugal" is mostly Brythonic with a possible latinate minority).

The intent was a more germanic middle (which I will probably expand to bits of Strathclyde and Bernicia-Lothian, while outside of Lindsay the southern notch of the blue blob will be mixed, as will be the midlands up to (and including because of population movement) Birmingham more or less), a more celtic south and a very heavily mixed north. The Jutes will not be as assimilated as the Fingal Norse in OTL Ireland but will probably be more akin to a compact Wales.
Also the capital of TTL Britannia is Kerglyw (Gloucester). And I'm revising things; apparently Sicilian remained the official language of the sicilian-peninsular (napolitan) court after the sicilian vespers IOTL and I'll probably be tempted to have it be the dominant language of the south aside from Campania (as in the duchies of Amalfi and Capua and the city of Napoli, not the borders of modern Campania).
 
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archaeogeek

Banned
As said, the Balkans and Southern Italy will get an explanation so while the map is not finished, here is the explanation.
This particular POD is during the crusades, since as hinted at by the Danish area in Britain, the Viking age still unfolded more or less as OTL, for the Northmen that is. They got to pillage and pirate their way to the med and yeah.

OTL, the conquest of southern Italy also involved resettlement of the area, massive colonization from frankish settlers. Colonization which was intended for the crusader states. ITTL, I had Venice work at redirecting most of it towards itself and its puppet crusaders in Greece. So instead of "achaean romance" being merely a court language, it has developed ITTL into becoming the language of towns and increasingly of the countryside, with Griko minorities. Epirus develops a language that's basically Vlach with massive Morean (name for the ATL greek-romance language) influences.

Bulgaria is an earlier POD, part of the slavic-germanic migrations swapping around, however, with the Moravians and the Czechs pushing the Gagauz towards the Wallachia region plus northern Bulgaria. It's a bit of a slavic, dacian and turkic melting pot but the "Bolgar" language will generally cement itself through elites and colonization. It also sets up its own patriarchate around the time of the 4th crusade (which goes as OTL but with an earlier fall of the latin empire, and the Niceans recapture Byzantium by 1228).

The Drang Nach Süden of the Germans (yes I know DNO was a bit of a propaganda thing) combined with the West Slavs pushing the Bulgars and large parts of the Daco-romance people south, a larger latinate sphere, and Rhomaion managing to recover over large areas that went Slavic IOTL leads to a situation where the south slavs are moderately overpopulated. They end up grabbing OTL Northern Albania but since it was already getting overpopulated at the time and can't export its excess population in Epirus and Morea, which is getting large amounts of colonists, this leads to my potentially weirdest and likely to be least appreciated population movement; also known as the "why the hell is Sicily Albanian-speaking" problem. Like I already said, this hinges on both maritime colonization and the convoluted history of the region IOTL.

IOTL, the first Arbereshe communities seem to show up in the 11th century, as the settled followers of Albanian mercenaries. Because the 4th crusade's "success" ITTL leads to a situation where Albania is even more overpopulated as Venice is basically stealing the colonists from under Sicily's nose, more mercenary companies end up leaving, with the inevitable camp followers. By the time of the Hohenstaufen-Papal conflicts over Sicily, the armies of both sides have large minorities, sometimes even majorities. Adding in South Slavs encroaching earlier in the area, and the area is massively overpopulated, and people are leaving in droves.

"Excellent" thinks the sicilian sovereign, who at this point in time IOTL is still not a Hohenstaufen and only really cares that they're catholic, and oh joyous coincidence, the north of Albania is heavily latin rite already at the time, despite the best efforts of the Byzzies (that bit is OTL, the north was catholic/"latin-rite orthodox" at most, the south was orthodox, and from the 17th century on albanians have tended to assimilate religiously faster than culturally :p ).

So, starved for colonists, they start settling their catholic albanian mercenaries in the south. Those who are settled on the mainland assimilate. Those who are settled in the island form a new increasingly large minority then plurality (OTL colonization accounted for about half of the pre-plague population IIRC). A number of mercenary captains from noble families acquire land in the island as a result, as they're being driven out by croatians. This marks the origin of the great italian-albanian princely houses of Ducaglini, Arianiti, Topia, Muzzaca, Castrioto, Toptani, Mirdito, Zenebicci, etc. They actually end up having branches in both cultures and in both parties of the Guelph-Ghibeline conflict. This is also when Cephalonia & Zante moves in the Sicilian orbit and becomes the base of one of these mercenary captains. At some point a Sicilian vespers-alike event leads to these insular magnates seceding from the papal sycophant/usurper king (or the reverse) and forming a sort of aristocratic republic out of "Arberian Sicily". Historians from both cultures will claim this was a proof of early nationalism all the way to the modern age. At the same time this also leads to larger assimilation in the Balkans, where the positions of the OTL Arbereshe and Albania proper are reversed.
 
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Then you get things like the Avars who more or less disappear, or rather probably become parts of the south slavs after the magyar invasions. Eastern magyars could probably lead to a much less southward push of the south-slavs, maybe leading to a much larger Croatia as the historical Serb-Croat divide wouldn't be happening.

The further South ward push of the Slavs was actually prevented by the Magyar presence in the panonnian plain because suddenly Slavs had an enemy in their midst.

Since you mention Serb-Croat divide. The divide was a religious rather than cultural at least in the begining but there was also another very important thing. Croats were far more widespread that Serbs in the 6th to 11th century.

It is not widely known but Croats were the most widespread Slavic people in the period from the 7th to 11th century.

At the hight of the expansion Croats could be found from vally of river Saale in Germany in the west to upper reaches of river Dniester in the east and from upper Vistula in the north to Crete in the south.

The centres of habitation were the dutchy/principality/kingdom of Croatia on the Adriatic coast, the White Croatia in eastern Bohemia southern Poland and another Croatia/Red Croatia(not the be mistaken with Red Croatia on the Adriatic) on the foothills of Carpathians in today Ukraine, Hungary and Romania. With other less significant places of settlement like pagus Croati in Carantania.

Get this separate zones somehow stay togather and the entire history of central Europe will be turned on its head. Or have 7 families of Croats not go to the Adriatic but settle somewhere closer to the other two mayor centres like settling Transdanubia and a central european Croatian Empire could be a given.
 

Don Grey

Banned
At the same time you could have a more turkish Bulgaria if it survives. A larger Azerbaidjan could replace mass migration of turks in Anatolia, maybe instead merely a small state like the Karamanids. Or maybe the Azeris and Turks displaced enough caucasian peoples that Armenia is now in southern Anatolia, and Pontus-Cappadocia remains an Iranian speaking region. Or Georgians and Alans emigrate in one enough to make it the new Georgia, with a larger Ossetian presence.

Instead of Balkanization, today we'd be talking about Anatolization ;)

As for azeris displacing turks thats pretty strange because azeris and turks are pretty much the same.Its like saying austrians dispacling germans.

It more of historical coincidence that turkey and azerbajian are two diffrent countries if they were one it wouldnt be that diffrent. And without the armenian corridor in the middle they probably would be one.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
As for azeris displacing turks thats pretty strange because azeris and turks are pretty much the same.Its like saying austrians dispacling germans.

It more of historical coincidence that turkey and azerbajian are two diffrent countries if they were one it wouldnt be that diffrent. And without the armenian corridor in the middle they probably would be one.

I didn't say Azeris displacing turks, I said Azeris and the Turks displacing the peoples of the area, basically remaining a single people.

Also regarding Croatia, I'm not sure Red Croatia was terribly viable, magyar or no; as for white croatia I never got the impression people knew where it really was, but I was planning on having eastern hungary and transylvania be a mix of vlach, german and croat slavonic.
 
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i think it would be interesting if the black sea region remained germanic, leading to a germanophone balkans, and possible alternate slavic migrations into germania leading to a slavic germany...

wow, i think i should remember that one
 
Ok sorry misread know it make sence.



Thats a bit difficult as there are alot of arabs there. turkification of the south caucasus would more realistic in my opinion.

To my knowledge, Mesopotamia seems rather ideal for Turkification. I mean the land is way less mountainous and a lot more fertile than Anatolia. It could've happened the way that Turkish became the language of Anatolia - by being the language of the elites.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
To my knowledge, Mesopotamia seems rather ideal for Turkification. I mean the land is way less mountainous and a lot more fertile than Anatolia. It could've happened the way that Turkish became the language of Anatolia - by being the language of the elites.

I'm not so sure, to a large degree the Turks was able to take over Anatolia, becausethe internal was depopulated and perfect to the Turks pastorial lifestyle. Mesopotamia on the other hand are perfect for agriculture, and a a agriculture which demand a large degree of infrastructure. That mean that the land would lose its value, if it was depopulated and a new population replaced the old.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
To my knowledge, Mesopotamia seems rather ideal for Turkification. I mean the land is way less mountainous and a lot more fertile than Anatolia. It could've happened the way that Turkish became the language of Anatolia - by being the language of the elites.

If the plague destroys Bagdad it might work but Turkish Iraq requires destroying a city of a million people, two or three times the size of Constantinople. Might be feasible >.> - Jalayrid assimilation with a larger Azeri expansion could do it.
 
If the plague destroys Bagdad it might work but Turkish Iraq requires destroying a city of a million people, two or three times the size of Constantinople. Might be feasible >.> - Jalayrid assimilation with a larger Azeri expansion could do it.

If the Turks can repeat the same feat as the Mongols, sure it's possible. The Mongols in OTL pretty much set the entire region back several centuries. Just giving out ideas.
 
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