VadisDeProfundis
Gone Fishin'
It seems to me that the way West and East Germany reunified wasn't set in stone. Surely the events were such that it would be difficult to realistically keep the GDR afloat as a separate nation, even one in a drawn out transition to a reunified Germany. But many were sceptical of the way Kohl reacted to the downfall of the East. Some SPDers were skeptical that reunification could be achieved, while others, as well as some intellectuals, were calling for the adoption of a wholesale new constitutional order. After all, I think the current German constitution of the Federal Republic is called a Basic Law precisely for that reason, ie that upon reunification a new constitution was to be devised and adopted. Could that have happened in the 1989-1991 period? What would that have looked like? What scenario would be necessary for something like that to happen, and how could a resulting Federal Republic be different from Germany IOTL? Neutrality, or economic rights? There were people talking about incorporating the experience of the East Germans into a new constitutional order, what would that look like? Could foreign troops be barred from being stationed in Germany, and what would the reaction of foreign powers be?
A scenario I've been toying with goes something like this: Genscher decides to hold off on the social-liberal coalition, and Schmidt manages to survive until 1984. Then, the Union picks Franz Josef Strauß for its chancellor candidate (maybe he switches places with Kohl, and Kohl is chosen in 1980, still fails to unseat the SPD, and FJS is the favourite for the next election?), and he ekes out a win. His government is a dumpster fire, hawkish comments on rearmament and a nuclear deterrent scare allies, and create momentum for an anti-Strauß moment. The Union government collapses in 1987-1988 over corruption scandals that implicate Strauß himself. Meanwhile, the SPD undergoes a more radical turn, and Oskar Lafontaine is picked, four years early, as a chancellor candidate. He emerges victorious, helped by the CSU/CDU/FDP government being a dumpster fire. I don't know if under such circumstances an absolute majority could be within reach, but let's say that it is. Then, 1989 comes around. Lafontaine, for all his rhetoric, surely wouldn't be able to totally ignore reality, and he'd realise that unification was inevitable, and that it would be then or never. But he, and probably the SPD too, would be likely to support the drafting of a new constitution. What would that look like? Could articles on neutrality be drawn up, or something similar to the Japanese pacifist constitution emerge? What could a new document look like? If electing Lafontaine is a long shot, then would Rau or Vogel or anyone else plausible do something like that?
A scenario I've been toying with goes something like this: Genscher decides to hold off on the social-liberal coalition, and Schmidt manages to survive until 1984. Then, the Union picks Franz Josef Strauß for its chancellor candidate (maybe he switches places with Kohl, and Kohl is chosen in 1980, still fails to unseat the SPD, and FJS is the favourite for the next election?), and he ekes out a win. His government is a dumpster fire, hawkish comments on rearmament and a nuclear deterrent scare allies, and create momentum for an anti-Strauß moment. The Union government collapses in 1987-1988 over corruption scandals that implicate Strauß himself. Meanwhile, the SPD undergoes a more radical turn, and Oskar Lafontaine is picked, four years early, as a chancellor candidate. He emerges victorious, helped by the CSU/CDU/FDP government being a dumpster fire. I don't know if under such circumstances an absolute majority could be within reach, but let's say that it is. Then, 1989 comes around. Lafontaine, for all his rhetoric, surely wouldn't be able to totally ignore reality, and he'd realise that unification was inevitable, and that it would be then or never. But he, and probably the SPD too, would be likely to support the drafting of a new constitution. What would that look like? Could articles on neutrality be drawn up, or something similar to the Japanese pacifist constitution emerge? What could a new document look like? If electing Lafontaine is a long shot, then would Rau or Vogel or anyone else plausible do something like that?