AHC: With a POD no earlier than the German Stalingrad defeat, allies win WW2 with no iron curtain


That's like saying "Suvorov" in response to the observation that there is no hard evidence for the Icebreaker Theory. All Radzinsky has offered amounts to badly sourced speculation but not a single archival document indicating such a plan, despite the enormous amount of paperwork the planning and preparation for such an operation would produce. It's conspiracy theory mongering, not actual evidence.

Already explained and answered.

No? Your explanation is that the Americans treated the Soviets like that because they still needed them to fight Germany. But Germany was defeated by Potsdam and Truman even expressed reservations about the need for the Soviets (if privately), yet American behavior still did not change.

If the US can get supplies to Kumming over the Hump, convoy support for TACair into Russia via Iran is EASY. Or are you contradicting yourself about Russian railroads and competency? Because that would be the bottleneck.

The US flew a daily average of 15,000 tons of supplies over the Hump. The difference are many orders of magnitude. Your ideas about this being in anyway mutually exclusive with the Soviet ability to support their own forces over their railways is quite patently false: the Soviets can be quite competent at running their railroads and still have the inability to simultaneously support their own and unable to handle the addition of Anglo-American forces for lack of physical capacity.

Pre-planning for conferences includes briefing idiots like Stalin on what to parrot beforehand during the conference. This is indicated by the American experience of having their shirts handed to them at the Quebec Conference. The Stavka briefed Stalin; period.

Receiving a briefing on the situation is not the same thing as being able to show a comprehensive understanding of the situation in a off-the-cuff conversation and unscripted conversation with a foreign. You might argue that Stalin might have extensively rehearsed but then that would (A) require Stalin to have foreseen himself having such a conversation with Alan Brooke and George Marshall and (B) indicate Stalin has a incredible memory... which is a strong indication of great intelligence. Indeed, if Stalin was as stupid as you are claiming then the briefing should have done nothing for him.

Previously answered.

No, your just dodging the issue.

Fired MacArthur. That about demonstrates the truth of the matter. Facts on the ground was that Marshall was wrong as Mao demonstrated. And I WROTE that above.

Had Truman not cared about public opinion, he would have fired MacArthur in 1945 and not 1953. As it was, he prevaricated for months, afraid of the public backlash from the action, before he obtained enough evidence that the backlash wouldn't be that bad. And it was MacArthur who was wrong about Mao, not Marshall. You did not write any of this, that is flat out lying.

RTL or ATL that is an assumption, a claim, not borne out by history.

Except it is? The Soviets rolled into Manchuria in 1945 and turned it over to the Chinese communists. That proved they had both the capacity to do so and the inability for Truman to do anything about it.

Beria Was Killed. Circumstantial evidence is that Khrushchev had him shut up. Economics; if the CIA got Russia wrong in 1953, (and they did,) what is to say Radzinsky is wrong?

Because Radzinsky hasn't been able to provide any actual documentation to support his claim. I'm not sure precisely what your on about with the CIA in 1953, who are operating in a different environment then Radzinsky is, but the lack of any hard evidence is pretty damning.

Those locomotives, Y tables and switching controls were not made in Minsk, and neither was the bunch running the line in 1944-45.

Most of the Soviet rail equipment used during the war was made in rail plants stretching across the bulk of European Russia and Eastern Ukraine and the personnel running the lines in '45-'45 were very much the same bunch as those running them in 1936... or 1943, for that matter.

The facts on the ground was that the bulk of the Luftwaffe was being killed in GERMANY and the Mediterranean.

The facts on the ground was that the Luftwaffe was being killed across multiple fronts, including Germany and the Mediterranean... and the Eastern Front. Quite notably, the division of German air loss figures in 1943 are strongly correlated with the division of German aircraft.

I seriously doubt you mean this claim. (^^^)

No, I do. The handful of Luftwaffe planes that managed to launch had a field day. No IFF or AWACS back then, so in a sky full of friendly planes, it was impossible to pick out the small flight of 109s or 190s. Its counter-intuitive, but beyond a certain point, numbers actually don't matter much in individual air battles (they still matter a great deal in overall air campaigns). In a contest of pilot vs pilot, what matters most is position and initiative, and since larger formations are easier to spot and harder to maneuver, there are actually some pretty decisive advantages for small flights.

All told, the Luftwaffe claimed 24 kills on 6 June, 18 for JG 2 and 6 for JG 26, with JG 2 losing no aircraft in aerial combat and JG 26 losing one in the air. JG 2 did lose another two planes in "operational accidents," which some historians think may be some fudging of combat damage, but that's still a good kill ratio. At least 11 of these kills can be matched with Allied records, with some more possibles. JG 2 ace Herbert Huppertz personally claimed five that day, four of which (two Typhoons, and two P-51) can be confirmed from Allied records. So overall, it can be said that the Luftwaffe achieved a 3.6:1 kill ratio in their favor on D-Day.

SOURCE: MEHNER, Kurt (ed.). Die geheimen Tagesberichte der deutschen Wehrmachtführung im Zweiten Weltkrieg 1939-1945. 12 Bände. Osnabrück: Biblio Verlag, 1984-95. Band 10: Berichtzeit 1.3.1944 – 31.8.1944. ISBN 3-7648-1460-8. 722p. 47 maps. 1986.

I don't see how that conflicts with my claim: the document claims 19 enemy shot down for 2 losses on June 6. If anything, that's an even better loss ratio then what I cited above. What is it with you and posting sources that prove the opposite of what your claiming?

Russian incompetence, notwithstanding (Those were Hurricanes, not Spitfires and a lot of them were actually RUSSIAN air units guarding the rail line.) the question has already been answered above.

Except it hasn't? I was talking about British units flown by British pilots which were indeed dispatched to Murmansk. You haven't even attempted to answer these questions.

Husky was July. Dnieper/Smolensk was August-September and had nothing to do with Husky or Avalanche (September). The Russians kicked off early in AUGUST because of WEATHER.

The timeline says your wrong:

Husky: July 9th
Suvorov: July 12th
Rumyanstev: August 1st
Left-Bank D'niepr Operation: August 23rd
Avalanche: September 9th

Arranged chronologically, one can see how Husky and Avalanche were strategically coordinated with the Soviet offensives to keep the Germans off-balance by presenting them with a series of crisis one-after-another. Also, nothing about Rumyanstev was influenced by the weather: the original plan was to launch it on the 16th of July, but that slipped because of logistical issues.

I do dispute his intelligence. He was a psychopath who could not rationally task organize in proportion to reality.

Which would have rendered it impossible for him to take and hold power. That he was in the very position of leading the Soviet Union required he possess serious ability to rationally organize tasks in proportion to reality in order to outmaneuver his opposition and take and hold power.

And being a psychopath is in no way mutually incompatible with being intelligent. There is no strong correlation between psychopathy and intelligence.

http://lib.ru/POLITOLOG/SUDOPLATOW/specoperacii.txt

(Pavel Sudoplatov. Special operation. Lubyanka and the Kremlin 1930-1950 years)

I can't read Russian so I can't see any evidence that might or might not be in there. Although given the track record, I wouldn't be surprised if it flatly is contradicting your assertions. Perhaps you would care to provide a translation?

Read about what Comrade Stalin was doing to the Red Army and Air Force during Barbarossa. It is a laugh riot.

Sure, but it only proves Stalin's paranoia... not any lack of intelligence.

And... Roosevelt's enemies wrote a lot of stuff about him, which turns out to have been true. Just because you hate a man, does not mean your recollections are inaccurate or cannot be checked (^^^ See immediately above.)

If Roosevelt's enemies wrote things that prove to be true about him, then how does that disprove that Stalin's enemies are wrong about his intelligence? If anything, it's the opposite. And as I observed, it's not just his enemies: it's also pretty much any half-decent history written about him with full access to documentation describes him as such. Hell, even your darling Radzinsky up there ascribes tons of intelligence to Stalin...

Zhukov and Kursk say otherwise.

No it doesn't? Stalin took Zhukov's advice at Kursk, but it was still his decision to do so. While STAVKA's advice was incorporated into the orders, it was still Stalin from whom they originated.

Fighting communism in East Asia was an accident, caused by a State Department Blunder and a massive military mis-estimate of the situation and a political panic reaction to the "Who Lost China" mania gripping Washington those days. It also appears that you have forgotten a few things. 1943 Russia is hanging on by her fingernails despite Stalingrad. The US is far stronger in op forces and basing in 1943 than 1950. Also committing to a ground war in East Asia in 1950 was not popular as Truman quickly discovers, but he HAD to fight. Shrug, YMMV may vary about ground truth but my interpretation I think fits the ground truth better.

The decision to fight in Korea was a quite deliberate one undertaken by Truman: we have signed orders and everything. You are clearly forgetting everything that is important: by the time the Soviets defeated the last German forces in Stalingrad, their economy was already rebounding, the suspension of fighting and return of territory up to the 1939 border will greatly lessen their burden, and what the US forces have in 1943 doesn't really matter if they can't get them to Manchuria, which they can't since the Japanese are in the way. And yes, fighting in Korea was popular when it first started: a grand gesture to finally oppose communism went down extremely well with the public: polling shows 78% of Americans approving of Truman's decision to deploy military forces to fight North Korea. It was only later as the cost of the war became apparent that the war lost popularity, but it was a bit late to go back then. There is no "YMMV" here and nothing that's up for interpretation.

Already answered. 1943,1944 and 1945 the Russians imported rolling stock and equipment to upgrade their system to the tune of 10,000 locomotives, 34,000 railcars and switching and control gear for 48,000+ kilometers of track. WHY? Not all of it was headed west of the Urals.

10,000 locomotives? The Soviets only imported 2,000... the same number as they lost during the war. Your numbers for railcars also don't match with the reality: they imported only about a 1/3rd of your cited number, not even enough to cover their far larger losses of 166,000. I'm having trouble tracking down numbers on track gear but given your inaccuracies it's more likely to have been around 25-30,000 kilometers. This in a time when the Soviets replaced 48,000 kilometers of rail lines in the reconquered territory and built an additional 7,800 kilometers

Notably, the literature surrounding Soviet rail construction during the war I've been able to find indicates that all of the new line construction was to support the war industries. Nothing about expanding the capacity of the Trans-Siberian Railway. So that rather shoots your claim in the head quite nicely.
 
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McPherson

Banned
It's possible, but the evidence is uncertain at best as to whether Stalin was planning on starting another world war. The evidence is very certain that he was planning on starting another round of purges (Doctor's Plot). If somebody murdered Stalin, probably Beria, they did it to save their own hide.

This, exactly.

Already answered with the 1941-1942 Red Air Force purges example.

I will also point out that, from a lot of the research I've done, western planes were less than optimal in Eastern Front conditions, and were certainly perceived as such by the Union. The Soviets were highly critical of lend-leased Spitfires (though these were admittedly usually rather obsolete by the time they got to the VVC) and other planes, and as OTL Kursk demonstrates, were more than capable of launching their own ground attacks with the Sturmovik whilst simultaneously contesting air superiority throughout the battle. The small amounts of fighters the WAllies might have been able to send on top of an already stressed lend-lease system probably wouldn't do much to change that. The Soviets didn't want Allied planes for their own pilots more than they would want other equipment (and they might well do better flying bomber escort over Germany anyway), and they very definitely wouldn't want allied pilots flying around. Paranoia might have had something to do with this, but even without that it's simply too big of a risk to have pilots who don't speak Russian (I don't have any figures on this, but I imagine a command of the Russian language was not common amongst Allied fighter pilots) and thus can't quickly communicate with other squadrons, etc. by radio flying around in unfamiliar planes. Too much potential for something to go wrong, either by friendly fire or by people *not* firing on the Germans for fear that they might be Americans.

The Russians seemed to have done well in sorting GCI and ATC problems in Korea. Language at their end was not the problem. I, however, think the criticisms about "western" aircraft is spot on though the Russians thought much better of Warhawks and Air Cobras as flying machines than you might believe. YMMV. I think the Russians were decidedly most unhappy with the air armament. (I agree with this assessment, Soviet air armament was so much better than the American supplied outfit in the P-40s and the P-39s.)

That doesn't mean that the VVC doesn't have enough air parity to launch ground support missions, which was its primary role in many ways. The WAllies were more focused on killing off the Luftwaffe, because it was a much greater obstacle to their strategy and aims than it was to the Soviets.

1. There was not much Luftwaffe to bother VVC and VVO because it was dying elsewhere.
2. If Overlord and the Combined Bomber Offensive, much less TACair in France and elsewhere was going to work the LW had to die. It took too long for the Wallie Bomber Barons (I include Harris in the lot.) to figure it out.

...you do realize that the definition of a psychopath is pretty much extreme logical and organizational intelligence coupled with nonexistent social intelligence, right? Stalin was very, very, good at getting done what he wanted to get done, but less good at figuring out what to get done.

Exactly. Hence military idiot.

1. Unable to properly prioritize, organize, and execute according to situation.
2. Sociopathy, an inability to empathize or understand people or circumstances. Refer to the air force purges.
3. Refusal to accept responsibility and concurrently remedy or fix those behaviors that lead to repeated disasters on the German-Russian front.
4. Paranoia that disallowed his trust in what to a sane person would be reliable advice and sources of information.
 

McPherson

Banned
ON...

My bolo. They BUILT 10,000 locomotives; and imported 2,000.

Otherwise I respectfully disagree with your interpretation of dates, times, places and circumstances. As noted above.
 
Already answered with the 1941-1942 Red Air Force purges example.

So basically your evidence for the claim that Stalin was planning a world war in 1953 is... an example which is totally irrelevant?

ON...

My bolo. They BUILT 10,000 locomotives; and imported 2,000.

The Soviets built 10,000 locomotives during the war? Huh, and here all the literature I can find was saying they built less then a 100...

Otherwise I respectfully disagree with your interpretation of dates, times, places and circumstances. As noted above.

Concession accepted, I guess.
 
Exactly. Hence military idiot.

1. Unable to properly prioritize, organize, and execute according to situation.
2. Sociopathy, an inability to empathize or understand people or circumstances. Refer to the air force purges.
3. Refusal to accept responsibility and concurrently remedy or fix those behaviors that lead to repeated disasters on the German-Russian front.
4. Paranoia that disallowed his trust in what to a sane person would be reliable advice and sources of information.

So assuming that Stalin was a psychopath, whilst certainly not necessarily wrong, is highly speculative. Either he was or he wasn't. If the latter, then this discussion is mostly irrelevant. If the former, then we have to break down what that means.

According to the DSM-V, psychopaths (well, strictly everyone with antisocial personality disorder of which psychopaths are the most extreme cases) display the following:

DSM-V said:
Individuals with Antisocial Personality Disorder tend to be charismatic, attractive, and very good at obtaining sympathy from others; for example, describing themselves as the victim of injustice. Some studies suggest that the average intelligence of antisocials is higher than the norm. Antisocials possess a superficial charm, they can be thoughtful and cunning, and have an intuitive ability to rapidly observe and analyze others, determine their needs and preferences, and present it in a manner to facilitate manipulation and exploitation. They are able to harm and use other people in this manner, without remorse, guilt, shame or regret.

Thus, your 1) is irrelevant and is disproven by the fact that Stalin was very good at responding to situations based on any objective measure of the history (see @ObsessedNuker), your 2) is directly contradictory to the condition you seek to assign to Stalin, your 3) misunderstands moral guilt as being the same as learning from mistakes (which Stalin certainly did, if only by listening to the STAVKA more) and 4) is once again a bit irrelevant. I'm not saying that Stalin was a military genius, but he was certainly competent enough to critique the plans of the military geniuses he surrounded himself with and to make them even better at their jobs. A second perspective can be just as important as intelligence per se.
 
Decades ago I saw a synopsis of a Soviet military school lectures on western Allied conduct of WWII. One of the core thesis in these lectures was that the Anglo/US coalition lacked focus of effort and offensive power was dispersed to far globally. Indecisive strategic fumbling slowed and blunted Allied war effort in the lessons view. Personally here the jury is still out on this, but I think the idea and implications are worth examining.

Their another point was that the Western Allies had been trying to minimize their losses and that this consideration had been playing an important role in their strategic and operational planning. For example, in Ike's rather negative attitude toward an idea of drive to Berlin because taking it would involve huge losses.

BTW, where exactly in NW Europe the Western Allies are landing in your scenario? Still in the Northern France or further to the North?

As for the rest, it seems that the whole idea is heavily based upon an assumption that the German resistance to the Western Allies is going to be minimal even in 1943 when, according to the Allies commanders, they were not yet quite ready for a major operation in Europe both logistically and because there were not enough adequately trained troops.

With "the two largest would be a increase of LL to he USSR during 1943, & telling MacArthur no S Pacific offensive in 1943" I don't quite understand why "Red Army is less offensive capable" after getting more stuff in 1943. Neither is it clear why this would mean a lesser German resistance on the Western direction: in OTL the allied operations had been simplified by the ongoing German defeats on the East with a resulting shortage of the resources to be sent to the West. No Soviet offensives means more German troops and weaponry to be sent to the West. Furthermore, the German situation is made easier by an absence of the Allied landing in Italy: most of the troops engaged there can be sent to the Western Front. Taking into an account sensitivity of the Wallies regarding their losses, the last thing they'd want would be to cut the LL to the SU after they landed because this would mean a greater stress on the American and British troops (and resulting higher losses). Not that FDR was excessively interested in the fate of post-WWII Eastern Europe (if he was, he would try to make different arrangements with Stalin).

Sending meaningfully big forces all over the map (the Balkans, Poland, etc.) from France/West Germany would be possible only after most of the German armies are defeated because otherwise these forces are going to be defeated piecemeal.

The Polish troops fighting on the Allied side amounted, in March 1944, to 195,000 and to 165,000 at the end of that year (including 3,000 in the Polish Navy). Not enough for a joy ride from Berlin to Warsaw unless Germany already capitulated in which case who is getting where would be defined by the existing agreements.

As for Prague, the Wallies came very close to capturing it but did not due to the existing agreements with the Soviets. Probably the same would apply to many other targets if the agreements are still there.
 
Which would have rendered it impossible for him to take and hold power. That he was in the very position of leading the Soviet Union required he possess serious ability to rationally organize tasks in proportion to reality in order to outmaneuver his opposition and take and hold power.

And being a psychopath is in no way mutually incompatible with being intelligent. There is no strong correlation between psychopathy and intelligence.

Stalin was, indeed, a very bad person but claim that he was an idiot is rather idiotic. An idiot would not be able to get to power over the heads of quite a few supposedly talented people and maintain his grasp on power for the decades regardless the major costly mistakes and defeats. And, in a process, to outplay the brilliant leaders like FDR and WC (or should we assume that, due to the fact that they had been outmaneuvered by an idiot, they had been complete imbeciles?).

Of course, Stalin was not a professional military and had to rely upon the professionals in the issues of a military strategy (but not a grand strategy). That's what the General Staffs and other similar institutions are for. Was he making big mistakes in that area? Definitely. So did WC. The important thing was to be able to digest the information and to learn how to make the right choices.

It should not be forgotten that by 1941 the SU was less than a decade into an intensive industrialization process (the 1st % Years Plan ended in 1932) with not too many experienced cadres being available on all levels (even prior to the WWI Russia was a relatively "low tech" country with a limited number of engineers and competent industrial workers), hence the endless problems with the new models of weapons. The same goes for the Red Army: creation of a modern military force started approximately at the same time with too many of the ranking military being the leftovers of the RCW with no proper military (or any other) education and very specific experience, mostly inapplicable to the modern warfare. Of course, the Purges made situation even worse but, to be cynical, they opened opportunities for the new people some of whom proved to be talented generals.


Notably, the literature surrounding Soviet rail construction during the war I've been able to find indicates that all of the new line construction was to support the war industries. Nothing about expanding the capacity of the Trans-Siberian Railway. So that rather shoots your claim in the head quite nicely.

Indeed. There is nothing of the kind between 1916 (when it was completed) and 1956 when electrification project started. Anyway, it is rather difficult improve its capacity by just putting additional tracks: there are too many tunnels and bridges and area outside road is not always suitable for railroad construction as had been proved during Breznev's time (Baikalo-Amur Magistral)
 
Meeting with Darlan before torch landings convinces him to join having French navy sail from toulon and immediately join the allies. French army fight german and Italians in Tunis airport and hold. Allies land follow in forces in bizerrte and Tunis and move rapidly on Tripoli. North Africa secure by end january 1943. Italian military seeing the writing on the wall and with the blessing of the king actually plan their double cross after Tunis falls. Contact allies and tell them they wish to switch sides. This prevents unconditional surrender proclamation at Casablanca conference. Plan is set to go off when it appears allies are ready for next move. In june of 1943 They take Mussolini in a night and and using surprise and superior numbers to make up for equipment and training cripple german forces in Italy and Greece. The soldiers and officers motivated by the promise of an Italy not punished by the allies and the kings personal plea to spare the destruction that would come if Italy is a full battleground. Allied forces preparing for the invasion of sicily sail instead to northern Italian ports, and to greek ports to reinforce the Italians before the German can put together an intervention force. This allows allowed fighter cover over all of Germany rapidly decreasing the industrial and transportation network. Places ploesti refineries under air assault with escorts. Allies on the continent in force and in defensible positions with ever increasing force and air support make german officer also see writing on the wall and plan coup of their own. Christmas 1943 overthrow Hitler and make deal with allied powers. Stalin protests but not in a military situation to force the issue. War ends with russia back to it's original borders.
The problems after Cassibile were only partially due to Italian conduct (which of course was, on the part of the High Command, absolutely horrid); you need at the very least to keep the various telegrams sent back and forth secret, especially the confirmation one that was OTL intercepted, which should prevent Achse being such an organized effort. That gives the Italian forces a bit more initiative than they did OTL. After that, the Allies actually throwing their hats into the ring, rather than faffing in doubt as they did OTL (they regretted that, at least), would help immensely. There is still going to be an awful lot of fighting, but it's going to pale when compared to the OTL Italian front and the slog up the peninsula that it was. But after that... then what? You have the Alps in every direction. You can then think about landing in Southern France and the Balkans, and Italy will help with logistics, but I'm not sure you can actually outspeed the Red Army.
 
It should not be forgotten that by 1941 the SU was less than a decade into an intensive industrialization process (the 1st % Years Plan ended in 1932) with not too many experienced cadres being available on all levels (even prior to the WWI Russia was a relatively "low tech" country with a limited number of engineers and competent industrial workers), hence the endless problems with the new models of weapons. The same goes for the Red Army: creation of a modern military force started approximately at the same time with too many of the ranking military being the leftovers of the RCW with no proper military (or any other) education and very specific experience, mostly inapplicable to the modern warfare.

I've seen it remarked more then a few times that the influx of the first classes of soldiers who had grown up entirely under the Soviet education system, and hence were far more technically literate then the earlier classes of conscripts, was a factor in the improvement of the Red Army's fighting capacity during 1942 and '43 even with the training system disrupted by the war.
 
The problems after Cassibile were only partially due to Italian conduct (which of course was, on the part of the High Command, absolutely horrid); you need at the very least to keep the various telegrams sent back and forth secret, especially the confirmation one that was OTL intercepted, which should prevent Achse being such an organized effort. That gives the Italian forces a bit more initiative than they did OTL. After that, the Allies actually throwing their hats into the ring, rather than faffing in doubt as they did OTL (they regretted that, at least), would help immensely. There is still going to be an awful lot of fighting, but it's going to pale when compared to the OTL Italian front and the slog up the peninsula that it was. But after that... then what? You have the Alps in every direction. You can then think about landing in Southern France and the Balkans, and Italy will help with logistics, but I'm not sure you can actually outspeed the Red Army.

I agree you can't bear the Red army completely. It is the airpower that if can cause enough damage especially to Ploesti that has to make the German officer corp see there is no chance for victory especially now that the allies have footholds on the continent. Thus its better to make the best deal they can. No coup than still have to launch Overlord and that won't be till May 44 at the earliest and even with less opposition in front of them logistics are still a drag such that the Iron curtain may be moved further East but will still come down somewhere.
 
I've seen it remarked more then a few times that the influx of the first classes of soldiers who had grown up entirely under the Soviet education system, and hence were far more technically literate then the earlier classes of conscripts, was a factor in the improvement of the Red Army's fighting capacity during 1942 and '43 even with the training system disrupted by the war.
OK, it seems that by the summer of 1941 situation was rather bad even in the tank units: noticeable percentage of the soldiers had less than 8 years of school, there were completely illiterate and those with inadequate knowledge of Russian, not to mention that a lot of them did not have any driving or mechanical experience. We can assume that those who were mobilized couple years later were somewhat better off. However (this is completely anecdotal) my late father told me that a real improvement had been seen when they started mobilizing people in their 30s: they were mature, with a life experience allowing to adopt to the circumstances faster and better than was possible for the teenagers. This started happening from the late 1942.
 
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