AHC/WI: Zapolya "Kingdom of East Hungary" Lasts Another Century

[Kellan Sullivan]

Alright. So Janos II Szigmond was born in 1540, his dad died soon after. When Janos II was born, his dad was king of a rump Hungary, when Janos II himself died in 1571, he was unmarried and had some odd religious ideas (being the only Unitarian monarch in Europe), and a year before (1570) had abdicated the Hungarian throne and was simply "prince of Transylvania".

Now, to avoid the less than ideal headache of Sigmund II of Poland dying without issue, and Janos II basically putting the realm of Lajos the Great (which no one - Pole, Lithuanian or Hungarian, much less Habsburg - would be happy with) back together again, the POD is Sigmund of Brandenburg, Archbishop of Magdeburg (cousin of Janos II) surviving his 1566 death and taking up the mantle of heir to Poland.

Janos likewise survives his OTL death (he abdicates the Hungarian throne - but retains the royal style, even if its just an empty title, lots of European monarchs had those. Just look at who all claims to be king of Jerusalem). He marries (I know Maximiliana of Bavaria was considered for a while, but the POD might butterfly that) and has kids. And instead of Transylvania/Hungary cycling through different dynasties like OTL (Bathori, Bethlen, Rakoczi etc) the Zapolyas manage to hold ths throne until sometime between 1650 and 1700. Whether the Hungary they rule stays what it was in 1566 or expands at Habsburg/Turkish expense is up to you - as long as it's reasonable.

Zapolya's unitarianism was a pretty unique concept in Europe so I don't see it becoming a state religion or anything, however I do see a sort of religiously tolerant state, with the ruler after Janos II being (at least) nominally mainstream with regards to religion (not sure whether Catholic or Protestant is more likely).

So have at it.
@isabella @Fehérvári @Jan Olbracht
@Monter

 

[Fehérvári]

Well, Transylvania was quite tolerant religiously even in OTL. The Diet of Torda of 1568 declared the four "integral faiths", the catholic, lutheran, calvinist and unitarian faiths to be equal in rights. The orthodox faith was well-tolerated as well.

If the interregnum in Hungary continues, then the royal power is likely to completely erode on both sides, imo. The Habsburgs are better off in this case, since they have other realms to rely on, but the Szapolyais could quickly become helpless. Also, without renouncing the royal title, establishing proper relations with ewch other would prove to be difficult, which would make the Szapolyais to be completely at the mercy of the Turks. The more or less independent East-Hungary/Transylvania would never emerge like it did IOTL.

I would rather go with a sceniario, where Szapolyai secures the throne for himself early by beating Ferdinand completely in 1527.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

If the interregnum in Hungary continues, then the royal power is likely to completely erode on both sides, imo. The Habsburgs are better off in this case, since they have other realms to rely on, but the Szapolyais could quickly become helpless. Also, without renouncing the royal title, establishing proper relations with ewch other would prove to be difficult, which would make the Szapolyais to be completely at the mercy of the Turks. The more or less independent East-Hungary/Transylvania would never emerge like it did IOTL.

Okay. Fixed the OP and title.

What sort of power base would East Hungary/Transylvania be? Was it an elective monarchy? Beholden to the Ottomans? Or independent? And could the Zapolyas claw back some of royal Hungary during the Brothers' War (between the sons of Maximilian II)?

 

[Fehérvári]

Okay. Fixed the OP and title.

There was no problem with the title earlier though.

What sort of power base would East Hungary/Transylvania be?

If the nobility becomes unreliable, the king's best guess for loyal powerbase would be the Székelys and Saxons. Otherwise, the Szapolyais need to accumulate wealth in their controlled areas, since most of their estates, which made ther powerful are now either in Turkish or Habsburh hands. Making clever marriages seem to be their best option.

Was it an elective monarchy?

Hungary was technically elective monarchy, but if there was a son of the king, his succession was almost never questioned. If the Szapolyai dynasty ends, I doubt, that the nobility would look for a new king, it's more than likely, that the Habsburg king would have been accepted.

Beholden to the Ottomans?

TTL, the Turks would exercise much larger authority over this kingeom compared to OTL, because of the lack of reconcilation with the Habsburgs.

Zapolyas claw back some of royal Hungary during the Brothers' War (between the sons of Maximilian II)?

I don't know much about it, but the opportunity would be present.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Making clever marriages seem to be their best option.

Any suggestions of a bride for Janos? I.e. would a fellow Hungarian or Transylvanian family's daughter work? Or would a foreign royal bride do better?

TTL, the Turks would exercise much larger authority over this kingeom compared to OTL, because of the lack of reconcilation with the Habsburgs.

Well, I changed the OP to allow a reconciliation with the Habsburgs to take place (hence why I designated "East Hungary" in the change of title), or was the abdication as king NOT part of a reconciliation? Sorry, my knowledge is a bit hazy.

 

[Fehérvári]

Any suggestions of a bride for Janos? I.e. would a fellow Hungarian or Transylvanian family's daughter work? Or would a foreign royal bride do better

Báthory, Bethlen, Zrínyi, Rákoczi families could be good choices depending on circumstances.

Well, I changed the OP to allow a reconciliation with the Habsburgs to take place (hence why I designated "East Hungary" in the change of title), or was the abdication as king NOT part of a reconciliation? Sorry, my knowledge is a bit hazy.

Nonono. You can't just split a royal title like that, especially not Hungary's, because of the Doctrine of The Holy Crown.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

This may be good for an independent Hungary. A prestigious dynasty survives and can challenge the Habsburgs in Hungary.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Nonono. You can't just split a royal title like that, especially not Hungary's, because of the Doctrine of The Holy Crown.

I was under the impression that it wasn't so much an actual designation (it'd be like calling oneself the "king of half of Hungary") but a way of distinguishing between the Habsburg kingdom of Hungary and the Zapolya principality of Transylvania (both who claimed the title of "king of Hungary" until 1570).

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

This may be good for an independent Hungary. A prestigious dynasty survives and can challenge the Habsburgs in Hungary.

Hence my question of whether a lasting Zapolya would be able to claw back parts of the Habsburg kingdom when/if the Brother's War goes down.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Hence my question of whether a lasting Zapolya would be able to claw back parts of the Habsburg kingdom when/if the Brother's War goes down.

Butterflies... OTL might be changed too much if Transylvania under Zapolya survives.

But there is a good chance Zapolya led Transylvania may regain Hungary in the 17th century. For no challenge in Hungary, the Habsburgs need to be beaten decisively and driven out of Hungary by 1660 or so.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

But there is a good chance Zapolya led Transylvania may regain Hungary in the 17th century. For no challenge in Hungary, the Habsburgs need to be beaten decisively and driven out of Hungary by 1660 or so.

Well, the OP said Zapolya dynasty need only last until 1650-1700. So, by 1660 the Zapolya could've got most of Hungary back (I could see them using a 30YW analogue to do so)

 

[Jan Olbracht]

It is worth to note, that John Sigismund Zapolya and Sigismund of Brandenburg were double cousins (not only they were both grandsons of Sigismund the Old, Sigmund's grandmother was Barbara Zapolya, sister of Janos), so John Sigismund may make a deal with Sigismund III Hohenzollern of Poland, making him or his descendants his heirs if he dies childless. With close relations between Hohenzollerns and Zapolyas John Sigismund could marry Hohenzollern girl (perhaps daughter of Johann Georg?).

 

[EnvarKadri]

During the ottoman rule on central hungary most of the population converted to calvinist, althoght with an enourmous hungarian catholic refugee population living in Habsburg land. So if Zapolya took over ottoman hungary, moving the capital to Pest (reclaming the title of king of hungary) and converted to calvinism, could the religious difference make Hungary harder to conquer for the hapsburgs, sorta like the Safavids in Persia? Maybe the ottomans decided to let him be, just demanding tribute from time to time, maybe even support him as a buffer against the Habsburg?

 

[The Professor]

I was under the impression that it wasn't so much an actual designation (it'd be like calling oneself the "king of half of Hungary") but a way of distinguishing between the Habsburg kingdom of Hungary and the Zapolya principality of Transylvania (both who claimed the title of "king of Hungary" until 1570).

A bit like being King of Sicily was?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

A bit like being King of Sicily was?

Yes.

It is worth to note, that John Sigismund Zapolya and Sigismund of Brandenburg were double cousins (not only they were both grandsons of Sigismund the Old, Sigmund's grandmother was Barbara Zapolya, sister of Janos), so John Sigismund may make a deal with Sigismund III Hohenzollern of Poland, making him or his descendants his heirs if he dies childless. With close relations between Hohenzollerns and Zapolyas John Sigismund could marry Hohenzollern girl (perhaps daughter of Johann Georg?).

Well, that could certainly be interesting, however, from what I found out, Georg der Fromme traded most of his Hungarian estates for ones in Silesia within a year of his first wife dying, which might mean the Hohenzollerns have little interest in Hungary. They'd probably inherit it and trade it back to the Habsburgs for whatever. And the Estates would/might know this, and know that if a Hohenzollern inherits they run a high risk of being traded to Austria or whoever can give the prince the most bang for his buck. And the Habsburgs would start getting very scared if the king of Poland (for instance) were to inherit Transylvania by "accident". Particularly if the Polish king/prince who inherits is NOT a Habsburg-fan...

During the ottoman rule on central hungary most of the population converted to calvinist, althoght with an enourmous hungarian catholic refugee population living in Habsburg land. So if Zapolya took over ottoman hungary, moving the capital to Pest (reclaming the title of king of hungary) and converted to calvinism, could the religious difference make Hungary harder to conquer for the hapsburgs, sorta like the Safavids in Persia? Maybe the ottomans decided to let him be, just demanding tribute from time to time, maybe even support him as a buffer against the Habsburg?

I'm not sure that having a pre-dominantly NON-Catholic population would be an issue for the Habsburgs. In Maximilian II/Rudolf II's reign, Austria, Bohemia and Hungary had a large Protestant demographic. Fast forward forty years (1600>1650) and these areas are almost all Catholic IIRC. But I could see how the independently minded Hungarians of OTL would be even more difficult for Vienna to control if they were a different religion...

As for the Turks I could see that Hungary is a sort of Ireland or India to Constantinople's London (see them as uncivilized or a source of problems or as a source of wealth (Hungary was called the "breadbasket of Europe" before Mohacs, not sure about after, and its gold mines made up a good portion of Europe's supply before 1492 IIRC). Esp with the Sultanate of Women where coup follows counter-coup, destabilizing the central government. Hungary/Transylvania would probably be left yo it's own devices during such time and start acting as less like a vassal and more like an independent state. And I could see Austria/Poland/whoever encouraging such behaviour. Only for it to come bite them in the ass when they inherit/take over Transylvania/Hungary (cause then the Ottomans might meddle in the reverse direction)

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

I was wondering about who might Janos II marry? Maximiliana was Catholic but considering her sister was responsible (apparently) for turn Karl of Steyr into as rabid Catholics as they were OTL (and Felipe II considered remarrying to Maximiliana himself or wedding her to D. Sebastião of Portugal suggests that she was probably not the most religiously flexible), which means the marriage would either be a match made in Hell or that the estates would be against it. "Catholic is fine, your Highness. Just not THAT sort".

Would the Habsburgs have a problem with a Protestant girl from the "right" family? Or would a Bathori girl (Stephen Bathori's niece, Krystyna (b.1569) would be way too young, so I could just imagine the Blood Countess' becoming Princess of Transylvania, she married in 1573 so its a possibility) suit? Gabor Bethlen is not even born yet so they're out. There are daughters of Nikola IV Zrinyi but I can't find marriage dates for them, but weren't the Zrinyis Habsburg supporters?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

What about Elisabeth of Prussia (born 1551) daughter of Albrecht Hohenzollern. I don't know why she never married, but her marriage with Janos makes some sense:
-Bathory family intermarried with other vassals of Polish Crown before-with Mazovian Piasts, so Zapolyas also can.
-If Sigismund Hohenzollern is new King of Poland, marriage with his cousin would strenghten Transylvania's ties with Poland.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

What about Elisabeth of Prussia (born 1551) daughter of Albrecht Hohenzollern. I don't know why she never married, but her marriage with Janos makes some sense:
-Bathory family intermarried with other vassals of Polish Crown before-with Mazovian Piasts, so Zapolyas also can.
-If Sigismund Hohenzollern is new King of Poland, marriage with his cousin would strenghten Transylvania's ties with Poland.

A Prussian bride makes sense (I mean, AIUI one of Elisabeth's nieces was offered for Michael the Brave's son, Nicolae, @Richthofen). As does a Piast girl, especially if she were an heiress of sorts (i.e. only one brother).

Looking through the Piasts, Henry XI only wed in 1560, and his eldest daughter only wed in 1587 (no surviving sons though), Jerzy II of Brief's daughter is born in 1548 but died unmarried in 1565. Anna of Teschen (b.1543) might work, but she died in 1564 unwed. The duchess of Teschen (Anna's stepmom), Katharina of Saxe-Lauenburg might also work. I can't find a birthyear for her, but her mom is a princess of Saxony and Katharina wed in 1567, after the POD.