With the cancellation of the
CVA-01 class fleet aircraft carrier and
Type 82 class light cruiser programs in 1966 and the British government's 1968 decision to withdraw from
East of Suez, the Royal Navy slowly lost the CATOBAR capabilities that it had helped to pioneer. Anti-submarine warfare capabilities were pursued instead, with three
Invincible class light aircraft carriers entering service. In 1978
HMS Ark Royal was retired without replacement, leaving the Royal Navy without a modern fleet carrier for the first time in decades. Only recently, in 2009, has the Royal Navy begun the process of reestablishing CATOBAR capabilities by placing orders for two
Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers, similar in size to the CVA-01 class ships canceled in 1966. Had the CVA-01 class been completed, it's likely that the
Queen Elizabeth class would have been their directly replacement.
Obviously there would have some changes with respect to the Falklands, but apart from that, what kind of impact would the CVA-01 and Type 82 have had on British hard and soft power during the Cold War and beyond? What would the United Kingdom have to give up for an aircraft carrier capability?
This is the usual story of Everybody, Somebody and nobody which has hamstrung British Peace time Defence procurement at least as far back as 1934.
Everybody in British Government thought that someone would make a Decision and Nobody did. Not helped by the continous change of parties during the 50s 60s and 70s at every General election not ended until the 1979 General Election.
This allowed a single party to persue a Defence plan of sort for 18 years (flawed or not its better than no plan) and then the New Labour "Cool Britannia" government to do the same from 1997 - 2010.
Basically the flawed decision making process at the time was due to yet another 'Traitorous' RAF attempt to prove that carriers were not needed in the face of real facts and this totally ignored what the Royal Navy had managed to achieve historically and what the US Navy continued to achieve.
Obviously 150 TSR 2 Aircraft (not then proven and subsequantly cancelled) could do the same global role as a pair of big Carriers for less cost (2 lies in one sentence).
This is just the type of thing that the then government needed to hear and so cancelled CVA-01.......and then cancelled TSR2 / F111 when it was realised that they wouldnt work / couldn't deliver.....and then failed to overturn the earlier decision.
So assuming that the Government of the day had not put lead in it's tea and has some inkling of history and realises that Land based Airpower cannot do the same job as an Aircraft carrier and goes ahead and orders some.
What would have gone?
Basically Britain would have to give up the TSR 2 Project and the follow on idea of a fleet of F111's (which it would ultimately do anyway).
So no loss.
The V Bomber Force (Vulcan, Victor etc) - would probably have been retired earlier with the introduction of the Trafalger class Ballistic missile Subs - there having been no need for a risky (yet still brilliant) very long range Black Buck air raid - to extend their service life.
Britain had the Buccaneers and had already ordered the Phantoms - so again no loss to the UK.
I would imagine that the Ark Royal and Eagle would not be given Refits and would be paid off as soon as the QE and POW were commissioned in the early 70s.
So no costly refits for a limited increase in life / capability.
The Type 42 DDG progamme was on the back of the cancelled Type 82 DDG programme (with only HMS Bristol being commissioned) - this would certainly have been a much reduced programme - possibly built to their full length rather than shortened (as in the earlier batches to save costs).
The last 4 units were built to the full intended length.
The only down side that I see would be that there would have been less of a need for the Harrier and this may have been ultimately axed - denying the Western powers this superb aircraft.
The Final CVA-01 design was a flawed creature that had had too much 'committee' inflicted on it
This from an Interview with the chief Designer before he died
"I interviewed the last chief designer of CVA-01, Louis Rydill, just before he died, and he confirmed that he had said that the day the project was cancelled was the happiest of his life. However, that was not because he did not believe in the carrier case. It was because he felt that he had been forced to make so many compromises, and introduce so many risky design elements, because of size and budget restrictions, that the whole project had become a nightmare"
Full article
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28128026
But a CVA is a CVA and better than no CVA.
The Falklands would not have happened - 2 of the main events that made those mad men in Buenos Aires think that the UK would turn a blind eye was the planned cancellation of HMS Endurance and the scrapping of HMS Ark Royal.
They (having at least a semblance of historical knowledge) knew that a proper carrier was needed to retake the islands and did not see the Invincable CVLs + Sea Harrier 1 as a threat.
That and a feeble woman was in charge in the UK!
With 1 or possibly 2 CVA-01s flying Phantom, Buccaneer and AEW a far more effective CAP could be maintained and the Argentine Airbases (or the Dictators Office's even?) might even have been attacked by Bucaneer which was arguably the best low level bomber at that time with high speed and long range with a decent payload.
Ark Royal's Job before she was decommed As I understand it had the Balloon gone up was to have launched her Buccaneers to attack the Russian Long range Bomber forces on the Kola Pennsular degrading their ability to strike at North Atlantic convoys. My understanding is that she was not expected to survive for very long.
A larger air group might possibly have given a CVA01 a longer expected life time for such a mission with a greater impact.