AHC & WI: No Coup of 18 Fructidor

[wolf_brother]

I tried using the search feature for this, but the (very few) threads that I could find even vaguely on this topic either seemed to focus on 'No Napoleon' scenarios, or timelines that involved preventing the Consulate (and usually therefore 'No Napoleon').

My question is essentially what's on the tin; what POD(s) would be required to avoid the Coup of 18 Fructidor, and what would be the immediate and long-term butterflies from such?

I'll point out that I am no expert on the French Revolutionary period, or the Napoleonic era, and I'm coming to this question from a position of how to avoid the Quasi-War, building on my earlier thread on the subject.

 

[Yorel]

The 18 Fructidor coup was an action against Royalists. At the time, there was a Monarchist majority in the two ruling Assemblies of France: the Conseil des Cinq Cents (Five Hundred's Coucil) and the Conseil des Anciens (Elder Council). If the coup isn't carried away, the Royalist will probably try to reestablish the Monarchy. Given the tendency was to monarchism in France, it would probably result in a success, althoug some Republicans might try to keep the Republic in place. However, Louis XVIII (since his brother Louis XVI and nephew Louis XVII are dead) has good chances on getting the throne if there is no 18 Fructidor coup in my opinion.

The 18 Fructidor coup not happening might be easy to achieve: just have Barras choose to side with the Monarchist directors instead of the Republican ones. Barras apparently hesitated a long time before choosing the Republican option OTL.

What results does an earlier Restauration have on France? Probably bad news for the ideas that were brought by the Revolution as they would be remembered as having been held by "mad men" (the Jacobins and the Terror) as well as by a very corrupt government (The Directory)... However, Louis XVIII would be the one to take the throne and make some compromises later on. On the other hand, Charles X might make the same mistakes he did OTL if Louis XVIII still remains childless... unless a longer reign of his brother help him see things in a different way.
I pit poor Napoleon Bonaparte in this situation... He fought for the Revolution and was rather pro-Jacobin early on or at least was fought to be so. Then again, if Barras has swung to the Monarchist side and there has been no 18 Fructidor, Napoleon might be saved by Josephine and her contacts. Probably does stop his military career dead though, unless his talents are taken into account... He had done his first Italian Campaign by that point I think, and thus won victories such as Montenotte, Mondovi or Rivoli. But even with that, I don't think Napoelon's future will be bright...

 

[wolf_brother]

The 18 Fructidor coup was an action against Royalists. At the time, there was a Monarchist majority in the two ruling Assemblies of France: the Conseil des Cinq Cents (Five Hundred's Coucil) and the Conseil des Anciens (Elder Council). If the coup isn't carried away, the Royalist will probably try to reestablish the Monarchy. Given the tendency was to monarchism in France, it would probably result in a success, althoug some Republicans might try to keep the Republic in place. However, Louis XVIII (since his brother Louis XVI and nephew Louis XVII are dead) has good chances on getting the throne if there is no 18 Fructidor coup in my opinion.

The 18 Fructidor coup not happening might be easy to achieve: just have Barras choose to side with the Monarchist directors instead of the Republican ones. Barras apparently hesitated a long time before choosing the Republican option OTL.

What results does an earlier Restauration have on France? Probably bad news for the ideas that were brought by the Revolution as they would be remembered as having been held by "mad men" (the Jacobins and the Terror) as well as by a very corrupt government (The Directory)... However, Louis XVIII would be the one to take the throne and make some compromises later on. On the other hand, Charles X might make the same mistakes he did OTL if Louis XVIII still remains childless... unless a longer reign of his brother help him see things in a different way.
I pit poor Napoleon Bonaparte in this situation... He fought for the Revolution and was rather pro-Jacobin early on or at least was fought to be so. Then again, if Barras has swung to the Monarchist side and there has been no 18 Fructidor, Napoleon might be saved by Josephine and her contacts. Probably does stop his military career dead though, unless his talents are taken into account... He had done his first Italian Campaign by that point I think, and thus won victories such as Montenotte, Mondovi or Rivoli. But even with that, I don't think Napoelon's future will be bright...

Would the royalists have really been able to institute a Restoration at this point? I mean the councils declare Louis XVIII as the returned king, and then what, there's no republican counter-revolution or popular uprisings against such a move? I realize the Directory was unpopular, but I didn't realize that it was so unpopular as to make the prospect of a monarchy appealing to the majority of the lower classes.

 

[wolf_brother]

Bumping this for more discussion.

 

[Yorel]

Would the royalists have really been able to institute a Restoration at this point? I mean the councils declare Louis XVIII as the returned king, and then what, there's no republican counter-revolution or popular uprisings against such a move? I realize the Directory was unpopular, but I didn't realize that it was so unpopular as to make the prospect of a monarchy appealing to the majority of the lower classes.

The Directory was pretty much a corrupted regime directed by rotten men. Barras is a perfectly good example as he often went where the wind was blowing: as a result, he fared really well under the Consulate, Empire and Restauration... And died a natural way.
It was also a period marked by a huge misery in France and the regime was so corrupted it couldn't resolve those problems. Another thing was that the regime maintained itself by using coup d'états against the Royalists or the Jacobins. Let's not forget that there was the 13 Vendemiaire two years before the 18 Fructidor. Plenty of reason to be hated by the people. And when the people want things to change, they generally don't care what regime it will lead to as long as it promises better living conditions: that's one of the reasons the Nazis ended up in power in Germany in the 1930s. The fact the Royalist were also promising peace helped a bunch as most of Europe was hostile to Revolutionnary France (although I think only Britain remained at war at the time... But that was enough to be annoying.)

Now, I'm not saying there wouldn't be a counter-mouvement to the earlier Restoration... First, there are a bunch of people among the Republican government that will not want Louis XVIII to return because they have blood on their hands and are thus likely to be executed. Second, the Jacobins and die-hard Republicans will probably try an uprising to save "their" Republic: wether it could succeed or not, I don't know.

Plus, do not take only my opinion into account: though I'm interested in the period and know a bunch about it, I don't consider myself an expert. I hope I won't be the only one to give you an answer because I myself want a counter-opinion to eventually start a debate on what might happen.

 

[wolf_brother]

Can you suggest some good resources for the topic (the coup in particular), and more generally the period? Right now I have George Rudé's Revolutionary Europe, 1783-1815, and Charles Ballot's Le coup d'état du 18 fructidor an v; rapports de police et documents divers. As well Rudé's The French Revolution and Georges Lefebvre's The French Revolution should arrive next week.

EDIT: Also just acquired copies of The French Revolution (Questions and Analysis in History) by Jocelyn Hunt and from Oxford's 'A Very Short Introduction' series The French Revolution by William Doyle.