AHC/WI: Delay/ slow down British economic decline post 1870

Thomas1195

Banned
But that requires Britain to be preparing for a major land war in the short term!

Weapons and ordnance are specialist work. The idea of Britain being able to fully fulfil the demands of an industrial war in 1914 - when the largest British army ever deployed to the field at one time before then was quite possibly at Waterloo a century earlier, when the British Army is deliberately smaller than that of almost any other power, and when the demands of the front line exceeded the ability of nations like Germany (who you laud as being "good" compared to the British "bad") to come to terms with - is silly. It would require prescience.
As it was everyone retained roughly the same shell reserve per gun pre-war (more would lead to the danger of obsolescence).

The French suffered a shell crisis within six weeks of the opening of the war. The British and Germans both lasted until November.
The French and Germans had their own shell quality problems too, it wasn't just the British - British shells failed to detonate, German and French shells had a tendency to go off in the barrel.


The scale of the artillery warfare on the Western Front was far beyond that which anyone had expected, so the shell crisis is probably impossible to prevent - it could be alleviated, somewhat, but to have industry capable of the specialized job of shell production with a maximum capacity anything like that needed in WW1 is to have industry which is far overengineered to what you need in peacetime.
Practice by batteries in 1913 used around 600 shells per battery per year for regulars and about 200 per year for territorials or reserve
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/lords/1913/jul/02/the-army#S5LV0014P0_19130702_HOL_86

Meaning less than 100 shells per gun per year. (Battery = 6 guns)

OTL the retained reserves were something like fifteen years of peacetime training; to have sufficient capacity to straightaway produce shells at the rate required by the First World War would be fantastically over-engineered for peacetime and would require well over 95% of the capacity to go unused in a given year - and you'd have to replace it all in 1900, and again in 1906, or whenever new artillery pieces are adopted.


Given that British policy was to prepare for a naval war, and given that the Germans who prepared for a land war were caught out so by the demands of WW1, I think it is infeasible for the British to have such a large shell manufacturing industry. Nobody on Earth could buy enough in peacetime to make it remotely profitable.


ED: rifles are similar. The British in 1914 had actually just decided to switch service rifles, but the war intervened and they just made scads more Lee-Enfields instead. The reason they couldn't supply their needs was because of the first mass army mobilization in British history - everyone who was expected to fight had a rifle, with plenty of spares, it's just that "expected" was roughly a million and instead over ten times that number went to war.
Nobody can conjure up nine million rifles in a year unless they already have a reason to produce hundreds of thousands of rifles a year in peacetime. To give you some idea of how fast the US did it, say, they peaked at 100,000 a year of Krag rifles in 1899 - after a fairly hefty war by their standards. The British have a larger army, but not that much larger that they need to be able to produce a million rifles a month.

Or we can look at WW2.
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=169307&start=75

Look at two most important industrial resources for making weapons: steel and machine tool.

Steel (1942):
UK: 12.9 mil tons
Germany: 30.9 mil tons

Machine tool (1940-1944):
UK: 379000
Germany: 813000

Now, assume that UK steel output rose to 17-18 mil tons and UK machine tool production rose to 650000-800000. If we assume that compared to OTL, the output of ships, tanks, trucks and planes rose incorrelation with this increase in machine toolproduction, Lend Lease could be limited to just oil or even butterfly away.
 

hipper

Banned
Or we can look at WW2.
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=169307&start=75

Look at two most important industrial resources for making weapons: steel and machine tool.

Steel (1942):
UK: 12.9 mil tons
Germany: 30.9 mil tons

Machine tool (1940-1944):
UK: 379000
Germany: 813000

Now, assume that UK steel output rose to 17-18 mil tons and UK machine tool production rose to 650000-800000. If we assume that compared to OTL, the output of ships, tanks, trucks and planes rose incorrelation with this increase in machine toolproduction, Lend Lease could be limited to just oil or even butterfly away.

Do you think there were sufficient unemployed people in the U.K. To turn an extra 7 million tonnes of steel into something useful?
Do you think that the UK suffered a shortage of steel during the war?
Do you think there was a shortage of machine tools in the Uk in 1944
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Do you think there were sufficient unemployed people in the U.K. To turn an extra 7 million tonnes of steel into something useful?
Do you think that the UK suffered a shortage of steel during the war?
Do you think there was a shortage of machine tools in the Uk in 1944
Yes, there were lots of shortage in early war. In 1940, American machine tool import accounted for 50% of total UK machine tool production, and always accounted for over 20% until 1944.
About steel, they had to imported finished steel, both to save cargo weight and to make good of shortage.

Next, using more machinery to make the industries more machine-intensive would reduce the need of labour and raise output. This is called capital investment.

If there are surpluses in output of these basic industrial products, they could be exported to Canada to build up extra production there, or exported to Soviet.
 
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Thomas1195

Banned
Britain's heavy reliance on the destructive lend lease had a profound negative impact on their post war economy. If they had a bigger capacity to produce basic industrial products and capital goods like steel and industrial machinery to support the production of war machines, they could have avoided Lend Lease, or reduced their dependence on LL to at least Soviet's level (while LL was crucial for Soviet, Soviet's dependence on LL was far less than British Empire, despite losing a big chunk of industrial regions).

We can also argue that if British shipbuilding industry was not obsolete and more mechanized (thus requure less labour), their output would have exceeded their losses without the need of US shipbuilding programs like Liberty or other Kaiser shipyards, and hence could have won the Battle of Atlantic earlier.

German production of land warfare weapons and equipment far exceeded Britain, with the exception of trucks. Britain was very lucky to be an island as they never ever fought a land war with a similar scale of the Soviet-German front during the ww2 like either the Germand or the Russian had to.

Btw, the value of munition output of Germany far exceeded Britain, but it was heavily skewed toward land war equipment.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Well, also, abandon Gladstonian economic policies of retrenchment (or austerity). By 1900 these policies were just lunatic. Bold state intervention should be implemented to speed up electrification and the development of new industries as a whole.
 
Britain's economy was changing at this time from an export oriented trade economy to an investment and financial economy. Importation of raw materials, increased wages, transportation costs, and tariffs made it much more difficult for British industry to compete with domestic markets around the globe. Instead, they financed the creation of those other domestic industries (especially in the US, I could throw a stick and hit half a dozen things that were financed in part by British capital). So instead of trying to compete, they reap the financial rewards by investing in other economies. The real power of the British economy was not in it's industrial output, but rather in the massive shitloads of investment capital it had.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Britain's economy was changing at this time from an export oriented trade economy to an investment and financial economy. Importation of raw materials, increased wages, transportation costs, and tariffs made it much more difficult for British industry to compete with domestic markets around the globe. Instead, they financed the creation of those other domestic industries (especially in the US, I could throw a stick and hit half a dozen things that were financed in part by British capital). So instead of trying to compete, they reap the financial rewards by investing in other economies. The real power of the British economy was not in it's industrial output, but rather in the massive shitloads of investment capital it had.
Well, this could be called a rentier economic model rather than a model based on real wealth creation, which would not be sustainable in the long run. Joseph Chamberlain called it Dutch disease. Worse, British investments in the US (a developed market) did not associate with orders for British products (unlike Japanese ODA).

That money should have been invested in electrification of the country. Britain did not really have a systemic national electricity system until 1926, despite they had a chance during the 1880s (Deptford), and another in 1900s (NESCo). The money should have also been invested in motorways to take advantage of the booming car industry.

I would prefer a POD that involve Joseph Chamberlain decided not to leave the Liberals and then brought the Radicals to the dominant position of the party, then become PM. Next, the Radicals would do for Britain what he had done for Birmingham, which would involve massive public work programmes on gas, roads, rails and electricity that would boost domestic industries. They would also deliver massive education reforms which would create a much better workforce.
 
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