AHC/WI: Austria-Hungary collapses 1900-1910

The first decade of the 1900s was one of at least some stability for the Dual Monarchy, despite some challenges.
What would it take to bring on an earlier collapse during this period?

I was thinking perhaps Franz Josef is assassinated and Franz Ferdinand botches Trialism somehow, or mishandles the Bosnian question.

What would the effects be?
 
Well for for one I could very esaly see a world war over the collapse do to how destabilizing this would be but if it dosnt I could see,
Germany- Austria proper, German west Hungary, presburg, bohimia, northern Tyrol, Maybe solvonia.
Russia- Galicia and maby bokorina
Italy-south Tyrol, Trieste
Bosnia-Herzegovina- either it goes to a new Croatian state or it gose to Serbia.
Croatia-either stays as part of Hungary or (more likely) it become it's own nation likely whith the rest of austrea Dalmatia (what's not taken by Italy anyway) and Bosnia, which I can esaly see a war over between them and Serbia.
 
Interesting. I knew there was a crisis in 1905 but my searches dredged up little.

Perhaps we could therefore see something like
Franz Josef dies or is assassinated (perhaps by a Magyar extremist). Perhaps before he dies he caves and enables a more seperate Hungarian military, which would create further problems.
Franz Ferdinand takes a more anti-Magyar approach which alienates Hungary and leads to greater support for independence amongst the political class. He might also attempt anti-Magyar reforms on the military.
In the wake of increasing instability, Ferdinand turns to the Germans for help, which only serves to enrage the Hungarians more.
 
Franz Josef was a pro-dualist, a status quo that the German and Magyar elites strived to maintain. I don‘t think assassinating him would be in their best interest.
 
The first decade of the 1900s was one of at least some stability for the Dual Monarchy, despite some challenges.
What would it take to bring on an earlier collapse during this period?

I was thinking perhaps Franz Josef is assassinated and Franz Ferdinand botches Trialism somehow, or mishandles the Bosnian question.

What would the effects be?

The 1907 Ausgleich was a bit ... contentious.

Not helped by the fact that there were quite a few people agitating for escalating the crisis. Historically, Franz Jozef intervened and eventually solved the stand-off, but there was, briefly, a real risk of War Plan U going ahead to break Hungarian intransigence.

To trigger a collapse, you can have the Emperor ill or in otherwise poor health (or even dead, following, say a 1905 assassination attempt in Bosnia), allowing someone (possibly Franz Ferdinand, as he was infamously rash and hostile to the Hungarian aristocracy) to begin implementing the war plan. After that, it's just a matter of making it crash and burn - War Plan U was a very risky proposition IOTL. It involved having the common army and Landwehr march on Budapest, while giving orders to Honved formations to hold positions - all it would take is for formations to refuse their orders and the whole plan goes up in flames.

Then you'd have a civil war in Austria-Hungary, probable interventions by neighbouring powers and a very likely break-out of an early World War ... the probable outcome of which is a total collapse of Austria-Hungary.
 

gurgu

Banned
we can use a pod of a 48' revolts style only in austria which brings to a civil war in the yugoslavian style.
This changes basically the whole ww1 start( early?) i'll try to make a mini tl.

1908 : AH annexes Bosnia adding another culture to it's empire( Austrian, Hungarian, Bohemian, Croatian, Slovenian, polish, Transylvanian/Romanian,Serbian and now Bosnian).
1910 : Transylvanian and Croats revolt asking for more autonomy, FJ tries to repress in blood the revolt but soon even the Bosnian and the polish revolt
1911 : Poland( Krakow)& Croatia( Zagreb) declare their independence while Transylvania hoping for more success joins Romania( bringing them into the war) while Serbia annexes Bosnia and enters also the war. Germany as old ally instantly join to help AHB( Austria-Hungary-Bohemia, triple crown to keep bohemians loyal) while Italy ask to stay neutral with the excuse of still recovering from the humiliation of the Ethiopian war.
without waiting the German troops, still mobilizing, AHB engages the battles against rebels but they are defeated at Belgrade and Slavonia while little success is achieved in the carpats due to Romanian incapacity
1912 : with the promise of Serbian territories and bureaucratic aid the OE join the CP engaging in macedonia, this action makes Bulgaria, Montenegro and Greece unite their forces to stop the ottomans fearing other centuries of brutal repression. Russia joins also the war to defend all the Slavs orthodox people( basically all the rebels/enemies of the CP at the moment), followed from france to honor their alliance. Italy and Britain are for the moment neutral the first because was preparing a war with ottomans to seize Libya and now is antagonizing it's de jure allies while Britain doesn't actually want a war until the Germans invade Belgium and Luxembourg, following the schlieffen plan.
1913: the Great war is in a stale mate in western Europe while in eastern Europe Russian/polish/Romanian troops are retreating( the Russians agreed to releasing a PU Poland moving capital to Warsaw). The most dynamic front is the Balkans were the Serbian and Croats are successfully defending on the southern river of the Danube and occupying the eastern alps in defensive position after achieving lots of victories on AHB troops( blitz war before trench war like west Europe) . Isolated from it's other 2 allies the OE is facing a 3 front war : Balkan front, Arabian front and Caucasian front. If the Caucasian front is pretty stable the other two are disastrous, Brits are pushing through Sinai and supporting Arab revolts while the Bulgarians and greeks, led by the you general Vladimir Vazov are achieving incredibile victories and have already encircled 1/3 of the Turkish forces in Macedonia( although same quarrel about control of Salonika).
In November Italy Joins the entente with the promise of Libya, Istria and Palestine( the italian king had the claim to Jerusalem crown). Italian forces manage to conquer easily Trieste and Bolzano but soon even they start the trench war after Cadorna tries the blitz war and looses more than 100k troops in a day after making the soldiers run toward machine guns well positioned on the alps.
1914:
Balkans
Greeks, Montenegrin and 1 Bulgarian army finishes off the Turkish troops encircled in macedonia, while the 2nd and 3rd Bulgarian armies led by Radko Dimitriev are rapidly advancing towards Constantinople After a brief siege of Edirne, the British navy are resupplying the Balkans( and Russia) from the kavala Region but a quick conquest of the city men's world desire is demanded in order to open the Bosporus and help Russia.
Eastern Europe
Romania is near collapse even though Serbs and Bulgarians troops are sent to help while Russia is even starting to face internal revolts due to famine and disastrous war, Poland has already capitulated but the resistance underground is operating.
Western Europe
Battle of Verdun, and minor German advancements but nothing more, french troops are scared from the red baron. Italy has only managed to connect the front with Croatians.
Africa/Arabia
Libya ha been quickly occupied and italian troops have already started landing in tripoli while Brits and yemenite soldier( rebelled) have reached Baghdad and Aleppo. in central Africa general Von Lettow is still unbeaten and keeps defeating with guerrilla the entente troops.
28 July, Bulgarians are entering Constantinople in triumph, soon the Turks ask an armistice, but it's too late for Russia, the soviet revolution has started. By December Russia ha surrendered and the Brest Litovsk peace is signed: Russia looses Baltic area, Ukraine, Georgia,Azerbaijan and Kazakistan.
1915: Bucharest is saved from the Bulgarian/greeks troops that stops the Austrian-German troops led by Mackensen 15 km from the capital.
AHB is collapsing, the country is devastated from revolt and even the bohemians are revolting while the country is facing a war on all of it borders( polish partisans in the north). Fearing the exile for his family from Austria FJ firm the armistice. Remained alone, even thought still occupying french lands Germany accepts to surrender.
Austria and the OE are considered the guilty for the great war.
Peace conference:
Germany: looses all colonies except a small portion of Congo where Von Lettow has surrendered, the country will pay all the war debts of France and England, Lorraine goes to france while Alsace stays German.Pacific colonies to japan as OTL
Austria: Bohemia gains independence as republic with a portion of Slovakia, Hungary becomes independent as monarchy( regency until king is found) with southern Slovakia. Poland, Croatian, Great Serbia and Romania are recognized. FJ abdicates ( bit useless, dies year later) and Austria can keep monarchy, in fear of a communist uprise. Istria and tyrol to Italy.
OE: Libya and Palestine to Italy, both as protectorates. Syria to France, Iraq to UK, Arabia and Yemen independent, same for Armenia and Kurdistan.western Thrace,macedonia to Bulgaria, takes even Constantinople but renounces the claims on Salonika. Greece expands in north and takes Epirus Salonika+ all the Aegean islands( dodecanese included).
Germany keeps Danzig, Poland and Lithuania are forced in the reborn polish commonwealth( sea access for Poland) having a medium-strong nation near the soviets,other nation of of Brest Litovsk are confirmed.
Romania gains also Bessarabia( strongest nation in Balkans with Bulgaria).
Serbia annexes Bosnia and Albania, sea access( no AH to piss off) forming the great Serbia.

Japan as OTL, USA only supplies so no Wilson and his useless points( no vittoria mutilata for Italy), Italy and UK manages to stop france from humiliating Germany .

if there are some errors, pardon me, i just woke up and might forgot something, also i think 2/3 years earlier than OTL won't change that much the result of the war.
 
The 1907 Ausgleich was a bit ... contentious.

Not helped by the fact that there were quite a few people agitating for escalating the crisis. Historically, Franz Jozef intervened and eventually solved the stand-off, but there was, briefly, a real risk of War Plan U going ahead to break Hungarian intransigence.

To trigger a collapse, you can have the Emperor ill or in otherwise poor health (or even dead, following, say a 1905 assassination attempt in Bosnia), allowing someone (possibly Franz Ferdinand, as he was infamously rash and hostile to the Hungarian aristocracy) to begin implementing the war plan. After that, it's just a matter of making it crash and burn - War Plan U was a very risky proposition IOTL. It involved having the common army and Landwehr march on Budapest, while giving orders to Honved formations to hold positions - all it would take is for formations to refuse their orders and the whole plan goes up in flames.

Then you'd have a civil war in Austria-Hungary, probable interventions by neighbouring powers and a very likely break-out of an early World War ... the probable outcome of which is a total collapse of Austria-Hungary.
I actually had no idea this existed. Thanks, this is a disaster waiting to happen.
 
Something I neglected to mention is that during Austria-Hungary's crisis, Russia is undergoing its own revolution. It was made rather weak by these setbacks both militarily and politically. This makes Russian intervention unlikely. Could we possibly see the revolution spill over into A-H?
 

gurgu

Banned
Something I neglected to mention is that during Austria-Hungary's crisis, Russia is undergoing its own revolution. It was made rather weak by these setbacks both militarily and politically. This makes Russian intervention unlikely. Could we possibly see the revolution spill over into A-H?
If the AHxplosion starts in 1908 as my comment above, russia won't be soviet yet, only being beaten hard( as explained) will make the nation revolt.
 
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