AHC: The Spanish Empire wins the Battle of Tampico in 1829

[La Rouge Beret]

For those that are unaware in 1829 the Spanish empire attempted to reconquer Mexico, and this culminated in the Battle of Tampico. Which saw Mexican forces led by General Santa Anna against the Spanish forces led by Isidro Barradas. The battle ended with a clear Mexican victory and this permanently ended Spanish attempts to return Mexico to the Spanish Empire.

However, what happened if Spaniards were successful in the battle? Would a victory here be as conclusive for the Spanish forces as it was to the Mexican forces IOTL or would further rebellion / insurrection be mounted against the Spanish forces? Furthermore, working under the assumption that the Spaniards re-establish control over Mexico, how does that impact upon their relationship with the expanding American republic? Could it lead to an earlier Spanish - American war?

 

[unprincipled peter]

The battle was more a failure to break out from the toe hold Spanish forces had established. So, if Spain had managed to move inland and expanded their base of operations, it is just step one of the process. They have to continue expanding, while securing the ground they conquer.

Wiki says the basic assumption was that the Mexican populace would support a return of the crown. While there may have been support, I think there's also a lot of anti Spanish sentiment. Ferdinand was known as quite conservative, and there's a lot of liberal sentiment in Mexico. Between Mexican conservatives who want to be Mexican conservatives (not Spanish run conservatives), and Mexican liberals, I think there's going to be too much resistance to Spanish re-conquest. I don't see Spain being able to retake and securely hold the colony.

IF Spain did succeed, though, obviously USAmerican-Spanish Mexican relations are going to be rocky. This goes squarely against the Monroe Doctrine. USA isn't the powerhouse of later decades, so outright war will be iffy for them. They'll probably stick to fomenting break away revolutions. The MD was basically an arm of British policy, who encouraged USA to take that stance so they (Britain) wouldn't have to be the spokesperson for it. Would be interesting to see how Britain reacts to an ongoing re-conquest attempt. A Mexican/Spanish - USAmerican war would depend a lot on whether Spain can pacify and stabilize New Spain/Mexico. A stable, prosperous New Spain would likely cause USA to be more moderate in their diplomacy. Then the US civil war, or at least the tensions that caused it, loom large for USA. Butterflies may affect those couple of decades, but the tensions will remain. This will impact USA willingness to go on a cross atlantic war of aggression. USA may develop a navy if they have an atlantic threat.

 

[frenchfrogs]

If Spain manages to defeat Santa Anna and advance further into Mexico from Tampico, it's possible they could seize Mexico City. However, this is not necessarily enough to secure Mexico. If Spain does manage to retake Mexico, it isn't plausible for the old viceroyalty system to remain, at most the Spanish will secure a personal union and a common military & foreign policy. Criollos are not going to give up the power they just secured. If Spain manages to stabilize the situation (which could perhaps be done further under Isabella II's more liberal reign,) then Mexico will be a much more difficult nut to crack for the US than it was IOTL.

 

[dfl_90]

I agree that this is really going to create more a foothold than presage a Spanish reconquest. The Americans and British are probably going to see Spain's attempts as disruptive the stability in the Americas and may provide some assistance to Mexico, although I doubt military intervention is likely. Additionally, support for restoring Ferdinand's rule is probably going to be much more limited than the Spanish expected. Monarchism in Mexico was hardly at it's height in 1829 and when Isabella takes the throne in 1833 I'd expect it to collapse completely. Perhaps the only major butterfly I see coming about here is that Santa Anna has suffered a major loss, possibly making his influence on the Mexican Republic more limited, which might positively compound with an increased national sentiment driven by a larger campaign to evict the Spanish. All that said, Mexico is already on a path of political instability, having just ousted Pedraza after the 1828 election, so this may not vastly change Mexico's long term prospects. Additionally, the Battle of Tampico basically enshrined Mexico's international standing as an independent state, so here Mexico might be stuck in limbo for a few years longer, which is inherently a negative situation for them.

 

[GunterW]

The thing about Barradas’ expedition was that it should have tried to take Veracruz, which is the country’s primary entry point and the main route to Mexico City, however Veracruz was not as easy to take, as it is rather well fortified by local standards.

Barradas sailed to Tampico, which at that time, was a secondary port on the frontier of inhabited New Spain/Mexico. The city is surrounded by swamps is pretty much isolated from central Mexico. Marching down the coast is a possibility, but disease will cripple any army before they reach the highlands, or they could go across the mountains to San Luis Potosi, risking being cut off and destroyed. Even if they win, conquering Tampico is not taking them anywhere.

I think, and this is based solely on intuition, is that Barrada attempted to save face by taking Tampico, and then tried to find its way out of the situation by negotiating some sort of compensation or favorable treaty on behalf of Spain and neutralize any schemes against Cuba from Mexico. At this point, Spain recovering Mexico is as likely as the UK reconquering the US. I say this because you can’t conquer Mexico with 4,000 troops, it was folly. It was more of a punitive expedition rather than a full attempt to reconquer the country.

 

[raharris1973]

The thing about Barradas’ expedition was that it should have tried to take Veracruz, which is the country’s primary entry point and the main route to Mexico City, however Veracruz was not as easy to take, as it is rather well fortified by local standards.

Barradas sailed to Tampico, which at that time, was a secondary port on the frontier of inhabited New Spain/Mexico. The city is surrounded by swamps is pretty much isolated from central Mexico. Marching down the coast is a possibility, but disease will cripple any army before they reach the highlands, or they could go across the mountains to San Luis Potosi, risking being cut off and destroyed. Even if they win, conquering Tampico is not taking them anywhere.

I think, and this is based solely on intuition, is that Barrada attempted to save face by taking Tampico, and then tried to find its way out of the situation by negotiating some sort of compensation or favorable treaty on behalf of Spain and neutralize any schemes against Cuba from Mexico. At this point, Spain recovering Mexico is as likely as the UK reconquering the US. I say this because you can’t conquer Mexico with 4,000 troops, it was folly. It was more of a punitive expedition rather than a full attempt to reconquer the country.

Good point on the geography, as this reminds us that Tampico is quite a bit north of Veracruz and Mexico City. But if the Spanish create this kind of disruption to northeastern Mexico, becoming a thorn in Mexico's side, but not a fatal wound to Mexico's heart, can this create some opportunity for Mexican-American cooperation to grind the Spanish between them? Or Spanish-American cooperation to jointly extort from Mexico? Or tempt Andrew Jackson's USA to opportunistically move on Texas, and compel some sort of at least short term, Spanish-Mexican reconciliation?

 

[GunterW]

Good point on the geography, as this reminds us that Tampico is quite a bit north of Veracruz and Mexico City. But if the Spanish create this kind of disruption to northeastern Mexico, becoming a thorn in Mexico's side, but not a fatal wound to Mexico's heart, can this create some opportunity for Mexican-American cooperation to grind the Spanish between them? Or Spanish-American cooperation to jointly extort from Mexico? Or tempt Andrew Jackson's USA to opportunistically move on Texas, and compel some sort of at least short term, Spanish-Mexican reconciliation?

Certainly, butterflies will change everything, starting with Mexican-Spanish relations and the perception of the vulnerability of Mexico in the US increases. Taking and holding Tampico (which will only be possible if they set up a supply line from Cuba) is going to become an embarrassment to the Mexican government, Vicente Guerrero’s government will fall on schedule, if not a bit sooner, and Santa Anna is sufficiently discredited so that he can’t get the support he needs to get elected President. Naturally, this changes any alt-Texas revolution and everything that happens after.

Spain’s hold on Tampico will be expensive to maintain and they’ll have to withdraw once the situation deteriorates at home, no later than the death of Fernando VII and the start of the Carlist wars.

The key here is for Spain to hold it for a while, like it did with the fortress of San Juan de Ulua in Veracruz, which held for years after Independence. This is needed to galvanize the establishment and the people to reform/support the army and unite the country against a foreign threat, this will also make Mexico more paranoid with respect to the US.

 

[Avrorrange]

Certainly, butterflies will change everything, starting with Mexican-Spanish relations and the perception of the vulnerability of Mexico in the US increases. Taking and holding Tampico (which will only be possible if they set up a supply line from Cuba) is going to become an embarrassment to the Mexican government, Vicente Guerrero’s government will fall on schedule, if not a bit sooner, and Santa Anna is sufficiently discredited so that he can’t get the support he needs to get elected President. Naturally, this changes any alt-Texas revolution and everything that happens after.

Spain’s hold on Tampico will be expensive to maintain and they’ll have to withdraw once the situation deteriorates at home, no later than the death of Fernando VII and the start of the Carlist wars.

The key here is for Spain to hold it for a while, like it did with the fortress of San Juan de Ulua in Veracruz, which held for years after Independence. This is needed to galvanize the establishment and the people to reform/support the army and unite the country against a foreign threat, this will also make Mexico more paranoid with respect to the US.

I think the expedition was a total mess from the sound of it, but assuming they miraculously won(maybe not miraculous since Santa Anna was in command), can we assume that the Mexican government would remain stable? It was a notorious mess by itself and this is only a few years since they achieved independence. There are still monarchists in the country who longed for a monarch. I think there is a chance that the government could potentially splinter and there is an opening for the Spanish to exploit that.

 

[GunterW]

As you mentioned Tampico is not an optimal invasion route, you have to go to San Luis then go south to Queretaro, it is too dangerous for any invading army from a supply standpoint. The shortest route, is the one taking Veracruz - Xalapa or Veracruz - Orizaba, then you need to take Puebla before getting into Mexico City, that's why I think it was all a show to extort Mexico reparations or to bolster support at home by bullying Mexico.

 

[GunterW]

I think the expedition was a total mess from the sound of it, but assuming they miraculously won(maybe not miraculous since Santa Anna was in command), can we assume that the Mexican government would remain stable? It was a notorious mess by itself and this is only a few years since they achieved independence. There are still monarchists in the country who longed for a monarch. I think there is a chance that the government could potentially splinter and there is an opening for the Spanish to exploit that.

Yes, the government will fall. Historically, Mexican victory didn’t save Vicente Guerrero and he got ousted later that year. If Spain wins you could expect even worse political fallout and any new government, will build its support by a “let’s unite to drive out the invaders” platform, which might eventually lead to reforms when the situation is under control. I don’t know about monarchism, Iturbide got shot only a few ago, and I find it unlikely they get a European prince to take the throne under such circumstances. The republic will continue until we get a foreign power to back up their candidate. Spain is out of the question with this affair. Perhaps an Italian Bourbon with French backing?

 

[Memo777]

With Santa Ana discredited or even death this pretty much kills the centralist republic on the crib and literally stops a few Mexican civil wars, that were caused due to it and Santa Ana’s horrible policies from both the independence wars from the Yucatán, Texas, republic del rio grande. Among all the political instability this caused pretty much anywhere that was not the capital as the states wanted a federal republic and not a centralized republic.

Long term this could actually cause Mexico to be more stable depending on who takes powers as it avoids a lot of rebellions and internal strife caused from Santa Ana.

 

[dfl_90]

Regarding how this would affect Texas, I think the changes are somewhat minimal. Mexico really began cracking down on American settlers under Guerrero and he's already in office by the time of this POD. By 1830 the damage was already done and Texas is still on more or less the same path as OTL. The only difference might be that if the Spanish are able to hold onto Tampico for any length of time, it might prove a significant distraction to the Mexican government, possibly giving the Texans more leeway to skirt Mexican law. While I expect the US to be sympathetic and perhaps indirectly supportive of Mexico against Spain, I don't think that's going to fundamentally change the American or Mexican position on Texas, which the US had been repeatedly attempting to purchase throughout the 1820s. Even with more goodwill between the two nations, Mexico isn't going to see a good reason to part with it.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

What I found surprising was that the Spaniards did not impose a naval blockade upon Mexico from the start of the expedition.

Which leads me to agree with the opinion that this was a punitive expedition that was perhaps cloaked as a potential Reconquista.

Either way, if the Spaniards win they have insufficient manpower to capitalise on a victory and, may very well be left with holding the bag.