AHC: Stop the Spanish and Austrian Branches of the House of Habsburg Walking in Lockstep?

[krieger]

No, the succession pact worked independently from Anne’s wedding AND the part who stated a double wedding was still satisfied with Maximilian marrying Anne. The marriage was celebrated in 1515 and consummated or not (pretty likely will be consummated as soon Anne is 14) Anna was the Dowager Holy Roman Empress . Sigismund will not get Anna’s custody for two reasons: a) she is the widow of the Emperor and b) at the death of their father Anna and Louis were under Maximilian‘s custody (not that of Sigismund) so she would be under Charles‘ custody if any. Most likely situation see her going back in Hungary (at her brother’s court) were she will be eventually married to Zapolya before her brother’s death (who died in 1526 so plenty of time for Anna to remarry). Sigismund, husband of an Austrian Archduchess will not try to contest Karl‘s election in Bohemia (if the Emperor is still unmarried is likely Sigismund is still offering his eldest daughter or some niece as wife for him) and being without great alternative (as Sigismund will stay out and Zapolya will take only Hungary) is pretty likely who in the end the Bohemian estates will end electing Karl...

No, it was connected with Anna's wedding. If Maximilian was alive when Louis died, then yes Sigismund would be still inert in this situation. And what about this? HRE worked under elective, not hereditary system. German princes won't care about Anna's fate. At the death of their father (if you're referring to OTL) Anna and Louis were under Hungarian estates custody and they succesfuly blocked any attempts from both Max and Sigismund to gain control over Louis. AFAIK, it was Sigismund not Charles who voted on Louis's behalf in OTL 1519 election. So Charles won't get custody over her. I doubt if Louis would want her to be married to Zapolya. The faction which controlled young king's policy wasn't especially fond of Zapolya and they would refuse him Anna's hand just as they refused him an office of palatine (which he tried to obtain also). I don't know to whom would they Anna to remarry and sincerely, with all their stupidity combined, I wouldn't want to even know. Maybe to some Hohenzollern prince, since George the Pious was one of the most important persons behind Louis's throne. Sigismund wouldn't just let Karl (if he is conflicted with brother and he is not married to Anna) take Bohemia. IOTL, he hesitated a lot before giving it to Ferdinand (who could count on Karl and was married to Anna) and while being a husband of Bona Sforza (not some Austrian Archduchess) he wouldn't stay out of the race.

 

[BBadolato]

pretty ASB considering who Philip need Don Carlos as heir in Spain, as he is the heir presumptive of Portugal until the birth of a child of King Sebastian.
If Sebastian die childless while don Carlos’ line is still extant, Cardinal Henry will never become King of Portugal and the union between Castile, Aragon and Portugal will be unbreakable

The POD was in 1560, Sebastian is still alive so I could have him married to Margaret of Valois and give them a child if need be, but that is neither here nor there.

Shouldn't be too difficult since IIRC Felipe II recommended to Caterina de Medici that she should cease employing Protestants in her service in France, and Caterina thanked him for his advice. And behind his back said he could "piss off" with his advice because there was no way that she could do something like that, even if she wanted to.

I think you would need to do more to keep the Austrian and Spanish Branches from having a common cause, but the Ottomans are a big obstacle to that that isn't going away soon. So the most I can see is both branches to have an otherwise chilly reception to each other outside of the Ottoman threat.

 

[VVD0D95]

I tbink you’d need some big
Policy differences to get tbis. What though I’m not sure.
I tbink if the Spanish Habsburgs became more
Concerned with the new world and the Netherlands?

 

[BBadolato]

I tbink you’d need some big
Policy differences to get tbis. What though I’m not sure.
I tbink if the Spanish Habsburgs became more
Concerned with the new world and the Netherlands?

That runs into the problem of can you either prevent the Spanish Habsburgs from gaining the Two Sicilies, and Sardinia, or somehow knee cap the Ottoman's who are basically the top dogs of the Middle East. Otherwise, the Ottomans are always going to be a concern for both parties.

 

[isabella]

Uh...Leopold had to wait until his 18th, but then Joseph I was made king at the age of 11yo. Which seems to indicate to me that it might have depended on th strength of the emperor's position.



Shouldn't be too difficult since IIRC Felipe II recommended to Caterina de Medici that she should cease employing Protestants in her service in France, and Caterina thanked him for his advice. And behind his back said he could "piss off" with his advice because there was no way that she could do something like that, even if she wanted to.



Wonder if Siggie will propose his daughter Hedwig (or would the pope be against such a match)? She'd be Zapolya's niece as well as Siggie's daughter.

Well Hedwig is exactly my first name in the list of possible brides to which Karl is not exactly interested (replacing her cousin Anna in that role)... Still Karl will marry her if circumstances forced him to do it (like with Isabella of Portugal in OTL)

I thought Maria Manuela renounced her Portuguese rights on her marriage to Felipe? ISTR reading something like that. Or maybe it was just something that @Gonzaga wrote that made me think that that's what happened.

No way Maria Manuela renounced to her rights, they have never done it in the previous weddings between Castile, Aragon, Portugal and Navarre and has zero reason for doing that with her (plus the idea who Joao who had Spanish mother, wife and daughter-in-law imposed to his daughter to renounce his rights on Portugal when she was marrying the heir of Spain is pretty ASB)

No, it was connected with Anna's wedding. If Maximilian was alive when Louis died, then yes Sigismund would be still inert in this situation. And what about this? HRE worked under elective, not hereditary system. German princes won't care about Anna's fate. At the death of their father (if you're referring to OTL) Anna and Louis were under Hungarian estates custody and they succesfuly blocked any attempts from both Max and Sigismund to gain control over Louis. AFAIK, it was Sigismund not Charles who voted on Louis's behalf in OTL 1519 election. So Charles won't get custody over her. I doubt if Louis would want her to be married to Zapolya. The faction which controlled young king's policy wasn't especially fond of Zapolya and they would refuse him Anna's hand just as they refused him an office of palatine (which he tried to obtain also). I don't know to whom would they Anna to remarry and sincerely, with all their stupidity combined, I wouldn't want to even know. Maybe to some Hohenzollern prince, since George the Pious was one of the most important persons behind Louis's throne. Sigismund wouldn't just let Karl (if he is conflicted with brother and he is not married to Anna) take Bohemia. IOTL, he hesitated a lot before giving it to Ferdinand (who could count on Karl and was married to Anna) and while being a husband of Bona Sforza (not some Austrian Archduchess) he wouldn't stay out of the race.

Sigismund and Maximilian had shared custody of Louis, I was mistaken about that...
Ferdinand and Karl will not be in any real conflict, they simply have never meet each other and while Karl resent his brother for stealing a big part of his rightful inheritance (at least in his mind) he was forced to accept the status quo... Ferdinand will not back Karl but is not his enemy (pretty likely they are often allied against their common enemies aka France and Ottomans) and in any case Karl is a much stronger ruler than Ferdinand ever was (he is the Holy Roman Emperor instead of a vicar AND he is the Duke of Burgundy, with all his lands either inside the Empire or at least close to its borders) and his focus is fully on the Holy Roman Empire and neighboring lands.
Bona Sforza was a lot anti-Habsburg while Eleanor of Austria (ATL second wife of Sigismund, as she will not be offered in Portugal here) is Karl’s elder sister and any influence she has over her husband will be used in Karl’s favor.
In OTL Vladislaus and Maximilian signed a pact of mutual succession (in absence of male heirs of either the other inherited the lands) in 1491 at Pressburg and that pact (confirmed both in 1505 with the double wedding agreement and in 1515 at Vienna) was the main base for the Habsburg claim on the crowns of Hungary and Bohemia and Anna’s wedding to Ferdinand only reinforced it.
Marrying Anna was Zapolya‘s main objective for long time so I think who his chance to get her after she was early widowed by her Habsburg husband are pretty high (Sigismund will not be against such match and is unlikely who Louis will stop it. Anna being married to Maximilian imply who she will be in Vienna and outside the authority of any Hungarian council of regency when her husband will die and is pretty likely who Karl will have at least some influence over her remarriage and more in deciding if she will stay in Vienna, go to her uncle in Poland or to her brother in Hungary.

 

[krieger]

Well Hedwig is exactly my first name in the list of possible brides to which Karl is not exactly interested (replacing her cousin Anna in that role)... Still Karl will marry her if circumstances forced him to do it (like with Isabella of Portugal in OTL)


No way Maria Manuela renounced to her rights, they have never done it in the previous weddings between Castile, Aragon, Portugal and Navarre and has zero reason for doing that with her (plus the idea who Joao who had Spanish mother, wife and daughter-in-law imposed to his daughter to renounce his rights on Portugal when she was marrying the heir of Spain is pretty ASB)




Sigismund and Maximilian had shared custody of Louis, I was mistaken about that...
Ferdinand and Karl will not be in any real conflict, they simply have never meet each other and while Karl resent his brother for stealing a big part of his rightful inheritance (at least in his mind) he was forced to accept the status quo... Ferdinand will not back Karl but is not his enemy (pretty likely they are often allied against their common enemies aka France and Ottomans) and in any case Karl is a much stronger ruler than Ferdinand ever was (he is the Holy Roman Emperor instead of a vicar AND he is the Duke of Burgundy, with all his lands either inside the Empire or at least close to its borders) and his focus is fully on the Holy Roman Empire and neighboring lands.
Bona Sforza was a lot anti-Habsburg while Eleanor of Austria (ATL second wife of Sigismund, as she will not be offered in Portugal here) is Karl’s elder sister and any influence she has over her husband will be used in Karl’s favor.
In OTL Vladislaus and Maximilian signed a pact of mutual succession (in absence of male heirs of either the other inherited the lands) in 1491 at Pressburg and that pact (confirmed both in 1505 with the double wedding agreement and in 1515 at Vienna) was the main base for the Habsburg claim on the crowns of Hungary and Bohemia and Anna’s wedding to Ferdinand only reinforced it.
Marrying Anna was Zapolya‘s main objective for long time so I think who his chance to get her after she was early widowed by her Habsburg husband are pretty high (Sigismund will not be against such match and is unlikely who Louis will stop it. Anna being married to Maximilian imply who she will be in Vienna and outside the authority of any Hungarian council of regency when her husband will die and is pretty likely who Karl will have at least some influence over her remarriage and more in deciding if she will stay in Vienna, go to her uncle in Poland or to her brother in Hungary.

Well, the point of this thread is about them not cooperating. Even with Ferdinand's neutrality, Karl's position will be not as strong as Ferdinand's was (when it comes to running for Bohemian and Hungarian crown), so he is less likely to get this inheritance. His focus will be, as you yourself stated - fully towards HRE and I see ATL Karl more trying to reestablish Swabian duchy (Habsburgs held Wittenberg IOTL for 50 years) than to place himself in Bohemia and Hungary. I doubt if Eleanor will marry Sigismund here. She is also Ferdinand's sister, so she will likely still end up in Portugal. Pact of Presburg and it's confirmation from Wiener Neustadt in 1505 were annuled by Hungarian Diet in 1506. New pact, made in 1515 worked in different way and one of it's clauses was that Habsburg heir needs to marry Anna, if he wants to claim Hungary according to the law. Yes, it was Zapolya's long-time objective, but exactly because of this clique which controlled (and will control ITTL) Louis won't like her to be married to Zapolya. Sigismund would also try to topple this match, because he noticed that his former brother-in-law grows too strong for his desires. I think Anna, after being widowed will marry most non-threatening candidate for Louis's clique possible (maybe Casimir Hohenzollern or one of Silesian Piasts).

 

[Jan Olbracht]

. I doubt if Eleanor will marry Sigismund here. She is also Ferdinand's sister, so she will likely still end up in Portugal.

That is not given-Karl is the one who'll decide about her fate. IOTL her Portuguese marriage served his own interest, that is different that interests of brother, whom he has never seen.
Also, Ferdinand, being Spaniard, would not need that marriage as much as foreigner Karl to secure his position on the throne.

 

[isabella]

@krieger and @Jan Olbracht: here, with a later death for Ferdinand of Aragon and no Spanish inheritance for Karl, Eleanor will be married by her grandfather and guardian Maximilian not by either brother (as Ferdinand is far away, unk now and Ferdinand of Aragon will offer Catalina for Joao from the start, while Karl, only Duke of Burgundy and without an alternative suitable candidate for her can not put a veto on his grandfather’s decisions, specially after forcing him to remarry for the fourth time) AND Maximilian will marry her in Poland

 

[Janprimus]

No. Plus that happened before our POD who is a year after Louis XII‘s death


First Anna is not the heiress of Bohemia or Hungary or Karl would have married her in OTL, second Karl will lose Spain only after his imperial election and when Anna is already married to his grandfather (as Anna will be wife of Maximilian if Karl do not accept to marry her before August 1516 when he is still formally heir of Spain as he can not be elected as Holy Roman Emperor or King of the Romans before his 18th birthday in early 1518 )

Not necessarily Anne was to marry a Habsburg Archduke, Maximilian made sure it was this vague, so it could still be either Ferdinand, Charles or less likely himself. So @Jan Olbracht has a point, but it can come down upon timing. IOTL Ferdinand and Anne finally married in 1521. There's no need for Maximilian to have to marry, Charles could still maintain that Anne would either marry him or his brother Ferdinand for the time being.
Once he's ITTL 'robbed' from his rightful Spanish inheritance, Charles both ruling duke of Burgundy and now ruling archduke of Austria and King of the Romans, will IMHO make a different assessment of the situation. IOTL Charles could dismiss Anne so easily, because Charles and Maximilian had Ferdinand. ITTL Charles and Maximilian could very well keep the betrothal with Anne, because it is in the interest of the house of Habsburg and by the point of divergence Charles doesn't have many appealing alternatives left. Isabella of Portugal made sense as king of Castille, Aragon, Naples, Sicily etc. , but less for an archduke of Austria and duke of Burgundy, than a French, English or a Bohemian-Hungarian match (the former two are more Burgundian focussed, the latter more Austro-Imperial).

 

[isabella]

Not necessarily Anne was to marry a Habsburg Archduke, Maximilian made sure it was this vague, so it could still be either Ferdinand, Charles or less likely himself. So @Jan Olbracht has a point, but it can come down upon timing. IOTL Ferdinand and Anne finally married in 1521. There's no need for Maximilian to have to marry, Charles could still maintain that Anne would either marry him or his brother Ferdinand for the time being.
Once he's ITTL 'robbed' from his rightful Spanish inheritance, Charles both ruling duke of Burgundy and now ruling archduke of Austria and King of the Romans, will IMHO make a different assessment of the situation. IOTL Charles could dismiss Anne so easily, because Charles and Maximilian had Ferdinand. ITTL Charles and Maximilian could very well keep the betrothal with Anne, because it is in the interest of the house of Habsburg and by the point of divergence Charles doesn't have many appealing alternatives left. Isabella of Portugal made sense as king of Castille, Aragon, Naples, Sicily etc. , but less for an archduke of Austria and duke of Burgundy, than a French, English or a Bohemian-Hungarian match (the former two are more Burgundian focussed, the latter more Austro-Imperial).

The timing problem for Anne is related to the fact who Maximilian married her by-proxy in name of either grandson in 1515 with the promise to consummate himself the wedding if neither grandson accepted the wedding in one year... In OTL he was saved by Ferdinand of Aragon‘s death, here he either persuade Karl (who is still searching a French or English match AND has not yet lost his Spanish inheritance) or Anne will be his wife at the latest in autumn 1516. In OTL Karl was equally interested in marrying Isabella of Portugal (top match available for Spanish interests) or Anna of Bohemia and Hungary (top match from an Austrian-Imperial prospective) (read: he refused more than once to marry either, while searching to marry a French or English princess).
Ferdinand and Anna married in person in 1521 but they were married since 1515 or 1516 (depend if you count from the celebration of the proxy wedding or the confirm of the identity of the groom).

Isabella of Portugal here will never be offered for Charles as she will be destined to marry Ferdinand as soon their grandfather is able to get him confirmed as heir.

 

[krieger]

@krieger and @Jan Olbracht: here, with a later death for Ferdinand of Aragon and no Spanish inheritance for Karl, Eleanor will be married by her grandfather and guardian Maximilian not by either brother (as Ferdinand is far away, unk now and Ferdinand of Aragon will offer Catalina for Joao from the start, while Karl, only Duke of Burgundy and without an alternative suitable candidate for her can not put a veto on his grandfather’s decisions, specially after forcing him to remarry for the fourth time) AND Maximilian will marry her in Poland

Isn't it more logical to marry Eleonora to Louis II of Hungary and Mary to Sigismund?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Isn't it more logical to marry Eleonora to Louis II of Hungary and Mary to Sigismund?

Mary is just one year older than Louis while Eleanor is 8 years older.

 

[krieger]

Mary is just one year older than Louis while Eleanor is 8 years older.

Ok, but even if Eleonora married Sigismund, I won't see him giving up Bohemia and Hungary to Karl who isn't husband of Anna.

 

[isabella]

Mary is just one year older than Louis while Eleanor is 8 years older.

Plus Mary was engaged to Louis since before his birth (and is way too you g for Sigismund while Eleanor is ready for marrying and providing him heirs)...

Ok, but even if Eleonora married Sigismund, I won't see him giving up Bohemia and Hungary to Karl who isn't husband of Anna.

Well, Hungary will likely go to Anna’s husband (specially if Anna had remarried to Zapolya) but is pretty unlikely who Karl will renounce to the crown of Bohemia and its electoral vote AND Sigismund in OTL had little interest in going against Habsburg while married to the ambitious and anti-Habsburg Bona so I can not see him going actively against Karl if he is married to Eleanor.

At the worst a still unmarried Karl will be “forced” to marry Hedwig of Poland (like in OTL with Isabella of Portugal)

 

[krieger]

Well, Hungary will likely go to Anna’s husband (specially if Anna had remarried to Zapolya) but is pretty unlikely who Karl will renounce to the crown of Bohemia and its electoral vote AND Sigismund in OTL had little interest in going against Habsburg while married to the ambitious and anti-Habsburg Bona so I can not see him going actively against Karl if he is married to Eleanor.

At the worst a still unmarried Karl will be “forced” to marry Hedwig of Poland (like in OTL with Isabella of Portugal)

Karl doesn't have any claim to Bohemian crown. Bohemian estates will elect whoever they want to, and it most likely won't be Karl. Anna remarrying to Zapolya is extremely unlikely, clique which controls Louis won't allow this to happen. Most probable candidate will be someone non-threatening - so Casimir Hohenzollern or one of Silesian Piasts.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Karl doesn't have any claim to Bohemian crown. Bohemian estates will elect whoever they want to, and it most likely won't be Karl. Anna remarrying to Zapolya is extremely unlikely, clique which controls Louis won't allow this to happen. Most probable candidate will be someone non-threatening - so Casimir Hohenzollern or one of Silesian Piasts.

So, what we have here is:
Habsbufg Spain (under Ferdinand VI/III)
Habsburg Austria and Burgundy (under Karl)
Hungary under the husband of Anna Jagiellonika (possibly Kasimir of Hohenzollern) or Sigismund Stary (who is married to Eleonore)
And Bohemia a swing state - either under Karl V or in PU with Hungary/Poland?

 

[DracoLazarus]

France's habit to roundhouse-kick all its neighbors in turn is not really conducive to splitting the two branches apart...

 

[krieger]

So, what we have here is:
Habsbufg Spain (under Ferdinand VI/III)
Habsburg Austria and Burgundy (under Karl)
Hungary under the husband of Anna Jagiellonika (possibly Kasimir of Hohenzollern) or Sigismund Stary (who is married to Eleonore)
And Bohemia a swing state - either under Karl V or in PU with Hungary/Poland?

I think Bohemians would elect Sigismund. Hungary would be split between Zapolya and Sigismund. Anne's claim would be lost, just as her Habsburg namesake didn't get the throne after Ladislaus the Posthumous died.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

I think Bohemians would elect Sigismund. Hungary would be split between Zapolya and Sigismund. Anne's claim would be lost, just as her Habsburg namesake didn't get the throne after Ladislaus the Posthumous died.

So Karl would wind up with no imperial vote to secure his son's claim to the purple in this instance? Or would he be able to buy the king of Bohemia's electoral vote and transfer it to Brabant (which IIRC Maximilian planned to do OTL, when Wladyslaw Bene was in financial difficulties)?

 

[krieger]

So Karl would wind up with no imperial vote to secure his son's claim to the purple in this instance? Or would he be able to buy the king of Bohemia's electoral vote and transfer it to Brabant (which IIRC Maximilian planned to do OTL, when Wladyslaw Bene was in financial difficulties)?

He could always create a new electoral title.