Yes, that was my first thought actually, but then went for the Hoenstaufen route out of love for the "Stupor Mundi". I totally agree with you, though, that this might well be a win-win situation. I am particularly curious about the relationship of a lasting Hauteville Southern Italy with the Pope. Maybe we have an ALT-Avignone captivity and the Norman kings become officially "Stewards" for the Pope, ruling Central Italy in their stead? I know this is an unlikely route, but that is why I deemed it interesting.
AHC: possible unification(s) of Italy after the rise of city-states and before the French Revolution?
- Thread starter Plundenoru
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You read my mind: obviously, it will take at least a couple of effective rulers in Palermo, but I would not consider impossible to have a Central Italy under the Hauteville (as Papal stewards, for sure
), with the Pope relocated in Benevento under their protection.The Stupor Mundi has a very good press, but at his death he left a horrible mess: doing away with him might not be the worst thing which may happen
This is a map of northern Italy at the time of the death of Gian Galeazzo in 1402, with the Visconti dominions in green. Assuming he lives 15 years longer, what would be his next target? Florence was about to fall, so that option's out. Could he unify all of the lands north of Rome and Ancona, with the exception of Venice, at the very least? This would be a formidable kingdom.
I've been thinking about a redo for the Visconti timeline, but I will say this- Ducal Milan is to Renaissance Italy what the Kaiserreich was to Europe. It is rich, urbanized, with a strong industry, noted for its military; with the other European powers at a nadir their arrival would necessarily be marked by serious strife and warfare and I would generally bet on a centralized and wealthy Lombard state being able to come out on top in those contests.
Any Visconti or northern grandee will have strong incentives to expand beyond the northern peninsula- specifically Provence, Naples and/or Sardinia. The Visconti had bad blood with the queen of France, and will desire a royal crown to tie their state together- and conveniently the Angevin crowns are on the verge of a major succession crisis. In fact I intend for Joanna II to wed Gian Galeazzo Visconti and solidify their claims to Provence and Naples as a consequence; this would also give dynastic claims on Achaea and Albania (de facto vassals to Naples on the preceeding century) as well as more tenuous claims to Hungary and Jerusalem.
I would add that an Italy, even a northern Italy, unified in 1402 will almost certainly be capable of going toe to toe with the Ottomans, and meeting them on equal terms, and would be incentivized to do so as the Balkans are their backyard and another source of legitimacy. In practice Italian power would be more ephemeral beyond the Adriatic littoral.
As far as Frederick II and the Sicilians go, letting his uncle Henry survive, so that we have an Imperial Swabian Hohenstaufen line and a Sicilian branch under Frederick, would accomplish much, though perhaps not a unified peninsula. I sketched out a timeline with a "Grand Romania" incorporating Sicily, the Papal territories and the remnants of the Latin Empire and a breakaway Lombard confederation a la the Swiss sndwiched between this and an increasingly centralized Germany.
Any Visconti or northern grandee will have strong incentives to expand beyond the northern peninsula- specifically Provence, Naples and/or Sardinia. The Visconti had bad blood with the queen of France, and will desire a royal crown to tie their state together- and conveniently the Angevin crowns are on the verge of a major succession crisis. In fact I intend for Joanna II to wed Gian Galeazzo Visconti and solidify their claims to Provence and Naples as a consequence; this would also give dynastic claims on Achaea and Albania (de facto vassals to Naples on the preceeding century) as well as more tenuous claims to Hungary and Jerusalem.
I would add that an Italy, even a northern Italy, unified in 1402 will almost certainly be capable of going toe to toe with the Ottomans, and meeting them on equal terms, and would be incentivized to do so as the Balkans are their backyard and another source of legitimacy. In practice Italian power would be more ephemeral beyond the Adriatic littoral.
As far as Frederick II and the Sicilians go, letting his uncle Henry survive, so that we have an Imperial Swabian Hohenstaufen line and a Sicilian branch under Frederick, would accomplish much, though perhaps not a unified peninsula. I sketched out a timeline with a "Grand Romania" incorporating Sicily, the Papal territories and the remnants of the Latin Empire and a breakaway Lombard confederation a la the Swiss sndwiched between this and an increasingly centralized Germany.
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Well, if Charles V has two sons AND splits his empire 3 ways leaving the Italian possessions to the second son then, as @Osman Aga proposed, there is an Italian state which consists of Sicily, Naples, Sardinia and Lombardy. To connect the Naples with Lombardy it would need to take the Adriatic coast from the Pope, which would leave only Parma and Modena in between. Parma is already under the Spanish influence (the Duke is married to Charles’ daughter) so there is no even a need for outright annexation. Don’t know about Modena but on its own it should not be a problem.
If the 2nd son is left with the adequate resources and can count upon the Spanish help then the French factor is taken care of: this is the last stage of the Italian Wars, France already lost Italy and the fighting continues on its Northern border (with France being consistently beaten). And almost as soon as these wars are finished, there are Wars of the Religion. So the Pope can call for the French help as long and as loud as he can, the help is not coming. And the rest of Italy is just a matter of time.
Mili
And the “middle” is rather weak militarily, especially the Papal part and specifically from the time of the Italian Wars. All the way to the 1630s France was absent as a serious military factor in the Italian affairs so there would be no real force capable to resist of such an unification if it is done by the Hapsburgs (of course, in OTL both branches had been routinely busy with some other problems and out of money as well so you’d need the 3rd Hapsburg branch, Italian).
The problem with the early time frame is that the armies of that period tended to be too weak for the massive conquests comparing to the possible opposition(s). The firearms by the early 1500s pretty much removed the condottieri and the minor rulers (who quite often acted as the condottieri) as a major military factor and this opened the field for a strong regional state to conquer a big chunk of the territory while France, Spain and the HRE are fighting each other. The problem is that there was no such a state and we’d need to invent one out of the OTL Spanish territories in Italy (ruled by a Hapsburg so that both Spain’s and Austrian branches are interested in supporting its rulers).
Perhaps you can have a more successful Ladislaus conquering elements of Central Italy and setting up for a later Neapolitan conquest of the Po Valley.
A united Northern Italy could go Occitan+Sabir speaking if it happens before the early modern period.
Occitan influence would be a certainty, but a literary "creole" of sorts had been developing from Gallo-Italic and Venetian sources way before the Tuscans crashed the party.
Bonvesin de la Riva for example, he wrote in a language that was to the Tuscan of Dante what Spanish is to Portuguese, or Czech is to Slovak: intelligible to a speaker of standard Italian such as myself, but full of quirks that, even today, are typical of northern dialects.
Of course, searching for a middle ground is inevitably going to bring out the common Latin heritage of all languages, Sabir being a fitting example.
If this Northern Italy includes part of Occitania, it will be Occitan speaking, if it is just united Northern Italy it would speak a language influenced by Occitan.
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Occitania is on the other side of the Alps though, only a small slice of Piedmont is/was Occitan-speaking.
A lombard unification, particularly one which incorporates part of Occitania/Provence, would probably increase the prestige and prominence of the northern "dialects" and enhance the occitan influences. Whether we would see a truly multilingual peninsula is another matter but doesn't strike me as implausible up to a point. It depends ultimately on literacy and the standardization of spelling and vernacular as a consequence of 19th and 20th century modern education; the persistence of Catalan and Basque in Spain could serve as a rough guide.
I will note that the languages of conquerors are naturally preeminent. Lombard nobles and patricians would be favored by the Visconti regime, they would be given colonies in the transmontane territories and other conquests, favored for the Curia. Lombardy is rich and populated enough to retain its distinctive and preeminent identity post unification imo, even if Piedmont was not.
I will note that the languages of conquerors are naturally preeminent. Lombard nobles and patricians would be favored by the Visconti regime, they would be given colonies in the transmontane territories and other conquests, favored for the Curia. Lombardy is rich and populated enough to retain its distinctive and preeminent identity post unification imo, even if Piedmont was not.
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There were obvious chances of an Italian state could gain control of parts of Occitania an example of that is the survival of Faidiva of Toulouse and her brothers dying, Savoy would expand in Septimania.
Occitan would be the official language in Italy, not Dante's language since Occitan only declined when French took
Lombard could also be assimilated as an Occitan dialect.
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An Aragonese Milan and Naples would be interesting as Catalan/Occitan would continue to influence Lombard.
He seems to be a capable person but he was operating with the reasonably small forces and had to rely upon the condottieri who, like Orsini, could defect to the opposition at any moment. And the opposition of even reasonably minor players was a serious thing because the armies had been small and their ability to take the fortified places quite limited (he had to marry Maria Orsini because he could not take Taranto, which she defended).
So I quite agree that he could conquer more of the territory but have serious doubts that such a conquest would last.
Now, even in mid-XVI, the minor players had been pretty much gone as a factor and even the republics of the Central Italy hardly could be considered as an important military factor. “State” could have its own army or at least to raise its own troops when the need arises without reliance upon the condottieri bands. And commanders of these troops would be just military commanders appointed by the regime, not the rulers of the mini-states with their own political agenda.
The Papacy, comparing to the XIV century, lost most of its spiritual influence and even more so of the military one. The peninsula had been dominated by the Hapsburgs so if there is a 3 way split of the empire of Charles V (find the 3rd partner), then there is a good chance for the Italian branch to accomplish conquest with the overwhelming force: the two other branches would support it because (a) it would be one more anti-French player and (b) it would be a secured link between a Spanish and Austrian territories.
Whole its not impossible that Naples could conquer more of the Papal territories, I gave to ask what the point of the entprrise is. The Marche is somewhat peripheral, probably most notable for controlling a major route into Rome; Charles' intention may well have been to put pressure on the Holy See or even subjugate it l entirely. Ancona is the most notable city in the region and it's a major Adriatic port. Charles own ambitions to regaining Hungary could arguably be served by taking it, but that enterprise also means making an inveterate enemy of the Venetians. Ticking off two of Italy's major powers seems unwise. The Habsburgs could probably pull it off, or the Staufers.