AHC/PC/WI: More Developed China

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Can China be able to shake off its impoverished status, corruption, war and other tragic situations and be able to become a South Korea or Japan? What needs to happen? And what are the possible effects?

Yes China is economically powerful but things like democracy, environment, government, corruption, and standards of living that need to be fixed.

 

[MattII]

Mao dies of is incapacitated some time between 1962 and 1966. The Cultural Revolution never happens, and instead the Chinese economy is reformed more slowly, but also much earlier, leading to a gradual rise in living standards, technical expertise, etc. It's quite possible the continued growth and increasing stability means there's less need for birth control (living in cities seems to naturally curb reproduction), so instead of the utterly insane one-child policy you get a two-child policy, if it's needed (with certain families allowed three children), which ensures a slow but steady growth, and puts off the future 'aging population' issue.

 

[mlp]

YLi would be able to pull off the best version of the PRC with a relatively recent POD, I think.

 

[Mr.brightside]

Kill off Mao right after he wins the civil war. Get someone in charge with a mind set closer to the current Chinese government. The economic raise then happenshe one or two decades earlier. By now the government could be making the transition to more political and civil rights.

Big question I have would be if this sells the thunder from Japan and South Korea.

 

[MrP]

Can China be able to shake off its impoverished status, corruption, war and other tragic situations and be able to become a South Korea or Japan? What needs to happen? And what are the possible effects?

Yes China is economically powerful but things like democracy, environment, government, corruption, and standards of living that need to be fixed.

In Hendryk's Superpower Empire: China 1912 TL, Yuan Shikai dies before he can make a mess of post-Qing China. There is neither Warlord Era nor civil war, and by the end of WW2 China has restored its status as a regional power. From there it's a fairly smooth ride to prosperity and eventual democratisation.

 

[Gigachad3k]

Make Mao Zedong Die in 1935 and So China never Been Communist and so China would be Resemble as Japan

Or Prevent Chinese revolution in 1911 that would Modernizes and Industrializes China under Emperor Pu Yi and so then the Civil War and Warlord Clans and would never Happened and China would Resemble as Japan

These Autonomous Regions like Tibet, East Turkestan(Xinjiang), Mongolia would Devolved similar to those Like Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and People would have better Standard of Living than Now

 

[RousseauX]

Make Mao Zedong Die in 1935 and So China never Been Communist and so China would be Resemble as Japan

Or Prevent Chinese revolution in 1911 that would Modernizes and Industrializes China under Emperor Pu Yi and so then the Civil War and Warlord Clans and would never Happened and China would Resemble as Japan

These Autonomous Regions like Tibet, East Turkestan(Xinjiang), Mongolia would Devolved similar to those Like Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and People would have better Standard of Living than Now

The problem is that 1911 Qing was probably not capable of doing much anymore simply because they alienated every segment of Chinese society and can't stay in power. You need something like a constitutional monarchy under the de facto rule of an ethnic Chinese to accomplish anything.

 

[RousseauX]

Kill off Mao right after he wins the civil war. Get someone in charge with a mind set closer to the current Chinese government. The economic raise then happenshe one or two decades earlier. By now the government could be making the transition to more political and civil rights.

Big question I have would be if this sells the thunder from Japan and South Korea.

Alternatively China is worse off because Mao's excesses demonstrated to the Communist party how much of a failure Communism was and paved the way for Deng era development.

A more calm PRC might have resulted in the party going ahead with Soviet style planning/industrialization, see that it's working fairly well and delay the reform and opening up of the economy in the 1980s.

 

[RousseauX]

Can China be able to shake off its impoverished status, corruption, war and other tragic situations and be able to become a South Korea or Japan? What needs to happen? And what are the possible effects?

Yes China is economically powerful but things like democracy, environment, government, corruption, and standards of living that need to be fixed.

You need a smarter version of Yuan Shikai at the end of the Qing dynasty, someone who can stabilize China and willing to transfer rule to some sort of legislature with legitimacy. Avoid the era of the warlords and you probably get rid of the Japanese invasion and Communist rule entirely.

Yuan, Chiang, Mao and Deng were really the four most important people in 20th century China, with Yuan setting the tone for most of 20th century Chinese history with his failure as a ruler. He really held the fate of China in his hands in the 1910s and bungled it. Having a smarter version of him establish a constitutional monarchy or a republic with some degree of democracy will completely change China's 20th century history.

 

[Gigachad3k]

The problem is that 1911 Qing was probably not capable of doing much anymore simply because they alienated every segment of Chinese society and can't stay in power. You need something like a constitutional monarchy under the de facto rule of an ethnic Chinese to accomplish anything.

Exactly What I was Saying

Pu Yi to Modernizes and Industrializes China and Transform Qing Dynasty into Constitutional Monarchy

 

[RousseauX]

Exactly What I was Saying

Pu Yi to Modernizes and Industrializes China and Transform Qing Dynasty into Constitutional Monarchy

Pu Yi was 5 years old in 1911, too young to do much beyond playing with toys. At the same time the Qing was going to be shoved out of power in very short order, long before he reaches adulthood.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

I wonder where the population would be in this China. And plus with a not-so/cheap workforce eventually over the years like Japan and South Korea I wonder how this effects other countries.

 

[Jeb Bush]

I wonder where the population would be in this China. And plus with a not-so/cheap workforce eventually over the years like Japan and South Korea I wonder how this effects other countries.

A China at the standard of living you are talking about would outnumber every other developed nation combined.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

A China at the standard of living you are talking about would outnumber every other developed nation combined.

How much though?

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Also I wonder if Xinjiang and Tibet would participate in this China.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

I wonder where the population would be in this China. And plus with a not-so/cheap workforce eventually over the years like Japan and South Korea I wonder how this effects other countries.

Smaller. Probably much smaller. Demographic transition would kick in far earlier. China back in the 50s and before had a fertility rate of around 6 kids per woman.

You throw in industrialization, education, urbanization, and increased woman's rights decades ahead of schedule and you'll see the birth rate sink like a stone. Of course, this means there's hundreds of millions less people that would have been born.

 

[EternalCynic]

Smaller. Probably much smaller. Demographic transition would kick in far earlier. China back in the 50s and before had a fertility rate of around 6 kids per woman.

You throw in industrialization, education, urbanization, and increased woman's rights decades ahead of schedule and you'll see the birth rate sink like a stone. Of course, this means there's hundreds of millions less people that would have been born.

I don't think so. Communists are very good at providing basic education and health care, and of promoting women's rights. Keeping the store shelves full, no so much. And, in any case, the fertility rate was already falling like a stone years before the One Child Policy was formally introduced.

Hendryk's Superpower China TL, where the PoD was the monarchy being restored in 1912, has China at first-world levels and a population 1.6 billion. And much higher migration abroad sees a much larger diaspora.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

In Hendryk's Superpower Empire: China 1912 TL, Yuan Shikai dies before he can make a mess of post-Qing China. There is neither Warlord Era nor civil war, and by the end of WW2 China has restored its status as a regional power. From there it's a fairly smooth ride to prosperity and eventual democratisation.

Read this. It's a classic.

Make Mao Zedong Die in 1935 and So China never Been Communist and so China would be Resemble as Japan

Ha, ha.
Chiang's KMT? Really? It's at least as likely to end up as a North Korean level failed state as it is to reach Japan's level of prosperity.
More likely, it struggles along like one of the SubSaharan African kleptocracies.

 

[EternalCynic]

More likely, it struggles along like one of the SubSaharan African kleptocracies.

More like Pakistan. It's an unstable regime where elected governments almost always end with uniformed men making TV speeches. Foreign-backed warlords run wild in border provinces. In the heartland, politics are controlled by various family cliques who raise private armies to crush/intimidate potential upstarts. Meanwhile, security at the country's nuclear arsenal is terrifyingly lax.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

More like Pakistan. It's an unstable regime where elected governments almost always end with uniformed men making TV speeches. Foreign-backed warlords run wild in border provinces. In the heartland, politics are controlled by various family cliques who raise private armies to crush/intimidate potential upstarts. Meanwhile, security at the country's nuclear arsenal is terrifyingly lax.

OK. I'll buy that.