Just Spitballing Ideas Here.... Please note that some of these contradict one another.
1) How to make otl Axis allies more reliable:
A. Italy - Possibly get Italy to discover Libyan oil in the 30s. Large oil reserves means a more aggressive Italian navy and Afrika Korps. Depending on development, oil could be exported to Germany as well. Improve quality of Italian officers and commanders. Focus on quality over quantity for armored development, tankettes are not in Italy's best interest, even if they can only build real tanks in small amounts.
B. Japan - More communication with Germany. More trading technology via submarine. Don't attack the United States. Have Germany teach you how to produce synthetic oil from coal, then mine the hell out of Manchuria coal reserves. Have the Japanese reevaluate their armored doctrine, and persuade them to go North and cut off the Siberian Lend Lease route.
C. Finland - Radicalize Mannerheim or persuade him to go all in during the Continuation War instead of playing defensive after retaking pre 1940 territory. Give the Finn's some subs and have them focus on taking Murmansk instead of moving towards Leningrad so that the White Sea Lend Lease route gets cut off. Also, potentially deploy Finnish ski troops to other parts of the Russian front during winter.
D. Vichy France - Try to collaborate more with Vichy France. Operation Torch shows that there were French willing to fight the Allies. Have them deploy more troops to Syria to tie down the British. Or you could go the other route and argue a fully occupied France is better for Germany than a collaborationist Government. Try to secretly capture the French Mediterranean Fleet and have more French citizens for forced labor.
E. Balkan States - First, keep them away from each other. Romanians should not be deployed alongside Hungarians. Second, give them as much armored vehicles as you can as early as you can. All available French tanks should be given to them, as well as anything captured from the Brits and Soviets. Also, idk if it's a conspiracy theory or not, but I read somewhere that the Germans assassinated the Bulgarian Tsar. Don't do that. Bulgaria outside of Hungary is probably your best ally in the Balkans in terms of quality.
2) Potential atl reliable Axis allies:
A. Soviet Union - Hitler dies post French invasion. Molotov-Ribbentrop lasts longer. British and French actually go along with the plan they had for attacking the Soviets during the Winter War.
B. Nationalist China - Probably needs a early pod, but have Chiang be slightly more fascist, and have Germany continue to show preference for China. Chiang wipes out Communists during the Long March and contains Japan in Manchuria. Soviet- Japanese border conflict goes hot, and the Nationalists have the chance to look South and go after Hong Kong and French Indochina.
C. Brazil - Requires a lot of Pods. Have Brazil be super facist because of Great Depression. You probably can't get them to join Germany, but they may be willing to tell the US to F off and continue trading rare metals/other resources to Germany via blockade running subs.
D. Spain - Only way this happens is if the Soviets fall in 42, Germany can make up for loss of US imports, and Hitler gives up on wanting to kill Spanish Jews. Also, you either need to offer Franco Vichy French colonies, or have a more heavily pro Axis Vichy France so Franco knows he has a more reliable ally in North Africa.
E. Turkey - Have the Greeks win the Greco Turkish War in the 1920s and have Kemal die while also being replaced by a more radical facist who wants to take back land lost to the Greeks, Soviets, and British. This means less British troops deployed in Crete, and more British troops tied down in Iraq. Also, the Russian front goes slightly better for the Germans since the Turks can advance on the Caucuses.
F. Tibet - Long shot, but during the interwar years, Tibet was de facto independent. Let's say that Chiang and the Nationalists are a bit more aggressive, while Japan and Germany open up relations with Tibet, with Japan even officially recognizing the Dali Lhama as the leader of independent Tibet. Tibetan troops can raid Chinese bases from the west and attack India from the North. If they get their hands on some AA, they can cut off the Hump.
