AHC Low Fertility United States

Hvalrossen · Mar 29, 2018

With a pod in 1900 how can the United States change culturally, economically and politically to have a low fertility rate? Granted that what is high or low fertility is relative and exists in a context. In this thread lets say that low fertility is 1,5 TFR and below. Historically the lowest fertility recorded for a country is 0,9 in East Germany and Taiwan. USA on the other hand has been known for its comparably high fertility for a developed country.

One possibiliy that might lead to lower fertility could be more urbanisation. In this case, how could USA become more urbanised? Why would USA become more urbanised?

What kind of cultural factors could lead to lower fertility in USA?

What kind of economic factors could lead to lower fertility in USA?

What kind of political factors could lead to lower fertility in USA?

What kind of cultural, economic and poltical solutions would the American govorment, businees and society introduce to adapt to a low fertility regime?

How would low fertility in the United States change the politca landscape of the country?

Would a low fertility USA have lower income inequality?

Would a low fertility USA invest more in its citizens? Especially in education and healthcare. Maybe the introduction of universal healthcare for citizens?

Would a low fertility USA be less hawkish? Maybe more isolationist?

Is there anything you would bring up that i have not?

Expat · Mar 29, 2018

The main thing saving the US fertility rate IOTL is the relatively high immigrant population. Hit that and you'll reach your goal in no time.

Hvalrossen · Mar 29, 2018

Expat said:
The main thing saving the US fertility rate IOTL is the relatively high immigrant population. Hit that and you'll reach your goal in no time.

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016...since-1970-driven-entirely-by-immigrant-moms/
You seem to be right

Hvalrossen · Mar 30, 2018

Md139115 · Mar 30, 2018

The overall number of White people under the age of 18 actually declined by 7.3 million between 1980 and 2010.

For African-Americans, the under-18 population only increased by 1.1 million, and this rate is dropping quickly.

It is actually the Asians and Hispanics which are driving American population growth.

I would actually say (having not done the full number crunching yet) that the White population of the US is already reproducing below replacement rates, that the African-American population is on track to be in the same position in the next 10-20 years, and that the only growth in the overall population of the US has been thanks to a steady stream of immigrants from Asia and Latin America.

My prediction is that by 2040, we will have a low fertility rate, regardless of anything else.

History Learner · Mar 30, 2018

Expat said:
The main thing saving the US fertility rate IOTL is the relatively high immigrant population. Hit that and you'll reach your goal in no time.

Not really; fertility rates among American Whites has stayed between 1.8-1.9 pretty consistently, which is far and above practically all other Developed Nations.

Aisha Clan-Clan · Mar 30, 2018

Reduce the welfare state even more somehow.

Md139115 · Mar 30, 2018

History Learner said:
Not really; fertility rates among American Whites has stayed between 1.8-1.9 pretty consistently, which is far and above practically all other Developed Nations.

That is still below replacement rate though. The White population is still shrinking.

At the same time though, the African-American population is poised to start shrinking as well, while the surge in Hispanic immigrants and birth rates is eventually going to level off at some point.

I honestly think that at some point much sooner than we think, the population is going to level off.

interpoltomo said:
Reduce the welfare state even more somehow.

Actually, one could argue that a decrease in the use of contraceptives that a health-care system provides and that a population can afford would cause a massive increase in birth rates. I would say that the US Welfare state is the smallest it can be without causing an explosion in population.

Aisha Clan-Clan · Mar 30, 2018

Explain free market Russia's extremely low birthrates, then.

Wallet · Mar 30, 2018

Hmmm I wonder what role the Great Recession played in the decline of birthrates.

Hvalrossen · Mar 31, 2018

Md139115 said:
Actually, one could argue that a decrease in the use of contraceptives that a health-care system provides and that a population can afford would cause a massive increase in birth rates. I would say that the US Welfare state is the smallest it can be without causing an explosion in population.

What about a strange mix of policies that might lead to lower fertility? Combining generous state support for sex education, contraception and abortions, with stringent requirements for aid and little aid at that. Aid that can be used for covering general living expenses.

Might this reduce incentives for having welfare babies while also making parenthood expensive and uncomfortable? Epecially for low income households.

interpoltomo said:
Actually, one could argue that a decrease in the use of contraceptives that a health-care system provides and that a population can afford would cause a massive increase in birth rates. I would say that the US Welfare state is the smallest it can be without causing an explosion in population.

Might this work?

Hvalrossen · Mar 31, 2018

interpoltomo said:
Explain free market Russia's extremely low birthrates, then.

One factor might be wealth- Russians are not as well off as there western counterparts. Russia might therefore have more financial stress put upon couples, this can lead to conflict in the relationship and increase divorce rates. Decreaseing the amount of married people and the duration of each marriage this leads to lower fertility.

Aisha Clan-Clan · Mar 31, 2018

Easy POD: Huey Long in '32. America goes down a peronist-type route, experiencing Argentina-style decay. Meanwhile eurasia and Africa are united under a victorious Soviet Union so no sizeable trade partners for the US to trade with and recover.

US TFR goes down and down after the war, with further dropoffs in the 70s and late 90s as standard of living declines.

History Learner · Mar 31, 2018

Md139115 said:
That is still below replacement rate though. The White population is still shrinking.

At the same time though, the African-American population is poised to start shrinking as well, while the surge in Hispanic immigrants and birth rates is eventually going to level off at some point.

I honestly think that at some point much sooner than we think, the population is going to level off.

Replacement rate and comparatively high fertility rates are a separate issue, given what OP is talking about; although below replacement, as you note, American fertility rates regardless of race are higher than essentially all other developed nations. With regards to the specific racial ones, Black fertility rates have been sub-replacement for sometime and Hispanic ones have been since at least 2016.