Not that much, if you read the rest of the paragraph (the part you didn't quote).
AHC: Japan goes to war with Britain and not America in 1940
- Thread starter Wesley_Lewt
- Start date
To be clear, I am less interested in the consequences of this happening (though they are interesting and thankyou)
I am more interested in a POD how this could happen. How plausibly would the naiive, ultranationalist officers compel this stupidity (as they did in 1937 and many previous times in China etc)
I am more interested in a POD how this could happen. How plausibly would the naiive, ultranationalist officers compel this stupidity (as they did in 1937 and many previous times in China etc)
Ok. because its not like if the RN had to abandon the med, pre Taranto, in November 1940, the Italians (with some German ground troops helping out) couldn't have done the Naval assault on Alexandria which the British legitimately feared and which Taranto was done to avoid? Then bag Malta and Gibraltar and make the Med an Axis lake?
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Italy is totally incapable of landing a military force at Alexandria. Gibraltar even less so. Malta is a maybe.
Remember the English still control the Atlantic so Gibraltar can be supplied. And they control the eastern end of the Mediterranean. They can still have a nice little air bubble of aircraft to keep the Italians away. And whatever submarines and small craft they choose to run through the Suez.
An Italian Mediterranean only achieves something in the long long term. Tripoli lacks the port capacity to supply Afrika Corps. Heck Germany and Italy combined lacked the steel for a railway from Tripoli to Alex. They simply can't win that game.
Remember the English still control the Atlantic so Gibraltar can be supplied. And they control the eastern end of the Mediterranean. They can still have a nice little air bubble of aircraft to keep the Italians away. And whatever submarines and small craft they choose to run through the Suez.
An Italian Mediterranean only achieves something in the long long term. Tripoli lacks the port capacity to supply Afrika Corps. Heck Germany and Italy combined lacked the steel for a railway from Tripoli to Alex. They simply can't win that game.
kham_coc
Banned
yeah that could have some serious butterflies - Otl, the nazis thought that they were on the clock relative to the USSR (when the clock had already rung) but if they credibly believe that the RN is days away from being stretched to the breaking point, as indicated by abandoning the Med, that could change things with regards to the USSR, after all with access to world wide inputs, Germany could leverage it's satellites and conquests to grow faster than the USSR, thus flipping the clock around.
Or just think that a Med strategy makes more sense with the UK out of it.
- Oh, Turkey? with no UK presence in the med, they might go Axis? which may or may not change German plans either in the Caucasus or Iraq.
The RAF in Alexandria will do better against Italian Regina Marina than the Luftwaffe in France did against the British RN in the Channel because...
Attacking Alexandria they aren't sitting ducks in a port like Taranto.
By your logic Sealion would have been a success.
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Easy.
Roosevelt retires in 1940 due to ill health (announced at the DNC), or dies just before the DNC, or he's so clearly ill that Boss Kelly doesn't have the "Voice from the sewer" shouting "We Want Roosevelt!" With the convention suddenly up for grabs, Sen. Burton Wheeler (who had his campaign committee lined up in case FDR pulled out) jumps in and wins the nomination.
The Republican candidate is novice campaigner Wendell Willkie, who in the opinion of then-very-active-in-politics Robert Heinlein, self-destructed. So Wheeler wins, and Wheeler is a fanatic isolationist.
In mid-November, President-elect Wheeler declares that while he is President, under no circumstances will the US go to war over other nations' colonial possessions in Asia. He also announces his plans for restrictions on trade with belligerents (including Japan), which will cut off US oil to Japan.
The Japanese leaders look at this, and think "What are we waiting for?" They occupy French Indochina a week later, and invade Malaya, Borneo, and the Netherlands East Indies in December.
Roosevelt retires in 1940 due to ill health (announced at the DNC), or dies just before the DNC, or he's so clearly ill that Boss Kelly doesn't have the "Voice from the sewer" shouting "We Want Roosevelt!" With the convention suddenly up for grabs, Sen. Burton Wheeler (who had his campaign committee lined up in case FDR pulled out) jumps in and wins the nomination.
The Republican candidate is novice campaigner Wendell Willkie, who in the opinion of then-very-active-in-politics Robert Heinlein, self-destructed. So Wheeler wins, and Wheeler is a fanatic isolationist.
In mid-November, President-elect Wheeler declares that while he is President, under no circumstances will the US go to war over other nations' colonial possessions in Asia. He also announces his plans for restrictions on trade with belligerents (including Japan), which will cut off US oil to Japan.
The Japanese leaders look at this, and think "What are we waiting for?" They occupy French Indochina a week later, and invade Malaya, Borneo, and the Netherlands East Indies in December.
This was a massive increase over the budget bill of 1938 that covered 1939 & 1940. That had covered replacement battleships for the oldest classes like the Texas as well as increasing the aircraft carrier fleet to seven. Heres some elements from the 1940 Vinson bill.
- 18 aircraft carriers
- 2 Iowa-class battleships
- 5 Montana-class battleships
- 6 Alaska-class cruisers
- 27 cruisers
- 115 destroyers
- 43 submarines
- 15,000 aircraft
- The conversion of 100,000 tons of auxiliary ships
- $50 million for patrol, escort and other vessels
- $150 million for essential equipment and facilities
- $65 million for the manufacture of ordnance material or munitions
- $35 million for the expansion of facilities
As 1941 spun out in 1942 the bi annual budget system was dropped & Congress started signing blank checks & tossing them out the window. The cancellations listed below were less than what was actually built 1941-1945.
Note the order for 15,000 aircraft for the Navy. Sounds like a lot? Gross production for 1943 was over 81,000, & 91,500 of all types in 1944. the 1944 total was AFTER orders for many types like the B17 were canceled for 1944/45. For comparison Britain built 22,600 all types & USSR 40,000. Germany built 39,600 in 1944. (Source John Ellis 'Brute Force'). Now heres the punch line; German production was nearly all single engine aircraft that year, while the three Allies increased the proportion of multi engine aircraft that year. When you compare engine production the Allies out built Germany by over 10-1.
Wheelers policy comes home to roost as Japan now controls the Michelin Rubber plantations & has defacto control over the global latex supply. Tit for tat they cease sales of latex to US & its friends triggering howls and panic buying. Tire prices skyrocket & Wheeler faints when the rubber industry present the estimates for making up the requirements through expanding a synthetic rubber industry. Same thing occurs now that Japan controls the Mekong Rice factory. The US has a robust rice culture, but can't supply global needs as Japan shorts the world market & ships rice to where it needs it & not to US friends & Allies. These are both problems Roosevelt was faced with when Japan took control of French Indochina in 1941. The problem ran larger when considered with Europe. Typically Europe consumed a avg 60% of US exports. The current war had badly curtailed that & while Brit & French war purchases had boosted US industry 1939-1940 that was rapidly ceasing. France had collapsed, and Britains Sterling economy could not finance US economic growth on its own.
US economic growth had been fueled by relatively free trade in the 19th & early 20th Century. This was a problem the isolationists never got a grip on. To end the stagnation and return the US to the sort of growth that existed in 1910 the US needed the sort of energetic global trade the imperialists and facists sought to control and turn to their narrower purposes. Making speeches about staying out of foreign problems and singing patriotic songs at America First meetings was not going to substitute. Neither was the kowtowing of Ford, Rockefeller, or Irene DuPont to nazi thugs going to carry the weight.
Italy has no amphibious doctrine. Alexandria is the base for an entire army. Crete is about 600km away, twice the range of the typical fighter so no air cover.
You do realise the RAF spent most of the war sinking Italian shipping day and night? This was their bread and butter. But like any of these amphibious invasions the issue isn't getting boots ashore, it is getting enough there and keeping them supplied. Italy doesn't have the sea lift, they won't get ashore organised, and they will have issues with supply.
1. Messerschmidts had combat ranges of well over 1000km with drop tanks (precise range depended on variant, some variants had ranges of over 2000km with drop tanks).
2. Most Italian shipping didnt have the benefit of Luftwaffe air cover or Regina Marina AA guns nearby.
3. Requisition whatever sealift you need from southern France (you yourself said they could with luck take Malta with an intact Regina Marina and I assume you were thinking Italians acting alone, I am thinking Italian-German joint operation)
4. What does the Alexandria based RAF do once Naval Artillery has pouned all its airfields to rubble? (The RAF will be able to do as much to this Naval Artillery as the Luftwaffe could do to the RN in the Channel)
5. An Army that has taken a major city can mostly supply itself.
6. To make this a success you use veteran German, as well as Italian troops. Joint operation.
7. I was under the impression that the battle of Taranto happened because the British legitimately feared the scenario I have outlined ?
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What we are waiting for is Logistical prep. In your scenario I still think they go to war 1941.
To have this kick off early 1940 you need a marco-polo bridge / mukden incident, type sitiation, organised by junior officers on their own initiative (or happening just because they got trigger-happy).
Such an incident is what I made this thread to ask about
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The U.S. would probably be on high alert. It would not take long for an overzealous commander based in Formosa to start bombing Clark Field, Nichols Field, Subic, and Cavite Naval Yard in Luzon.
The first ME-109s that could use drop tanks only started rolling of the line in the fall of 1940. You would not have enough of active to do what you ask until 1941.
Quite a bit of it actually did. But it is a bit of a moot point, The ME-109E7 (the first variant with drop tanks) had a range of 1325 km. The law of thirds means that their combat radius is around about 440 km, not the 730 km from Crete to Alexandria. Additionally the RM's AA guns were somewhat marginal, and AA fire at this stage of the war was far from decisive.
Germany took what they needed out of French territory in the form of reparations and just refusing to pay for things, requisitioning ships from the nominally still independent Vichy regime is not as simple as it may seem. The Germans did still need to maintain a level of balance with Vichy. If they push too hard, and Vichy refuses, then German options are actually somewhat limited. They could invade, but that would lose them the French Empire, which was the whole reason for maintaining Vichy in the first place. That is not to say it is impossible, but it would probably require concessions, such as releasing some of the French POW's that the Germans were happily using as labour in their own economy. Considering the relative lack of importance that Hitler placed on the Med, and the Italian desire to keep the region an Italian concern, these concessions seem like non-starters.
Additionally, It was not said that they could definitely take Malta. It is possible that they could, when the defenses were at their lowest, but Malta would be a bloody hard slog even with a few light infantry defending it. The Italians did not have an operational airborne unit and the German ones had been used up in the Netherlands and Norway. For the time being airborne assault is not an option. It might be possible for a naval assault to work if the British basically give up on defending the island but it would not be without loss.
How exactly? The city is not going to supply everything they need? Alexandria is not producing ammunition for German or Italian weapons, tanks, artillery, fuel for vehicles, ships and aircraft or food for the army. Lines of supply need to be maintained, and that would not be easy for the Axis to do to Alexandria.
German troops are not veteran at amphibious landings or desert warfare. They would not be immediately effective in those roles. They need time to train for them and acclimatize. So will many Italian troops actually, as North Africa Veterans are a relatively small amount of the Italian Army at this point.
The Taranto operation was first suggested in 1935 during the Abyssinian Crisis. It was meant to neutralize as much of the Italian Battlefleet as possible in order to give the RN the run of the Med. This would technically remove the Italians ability to assault Alexandria but to the best of my knowledge that was not the primary concern as there are several steps the Italians would have to get through before that was a viable option.
nbcman
Donor
Are you aware of where the RAF was based at in Egypt in the summer of 1940? No squadrons were based anywhere near Alexandria.
Additionally, you should investigate what the RM's amphibious capabilities were in 1940 (they didn't have enough lift for a single regiment and had to requisition pleasure craft to attempt to invade France) as well as how many RM BBs were available to come out and play with the RN's Med Fleet. Germany can't add anything to the eastern Med naval balance in 1940 even if Mussolini would give them permission to.
This thread about a Malta invasion may prove to be of interest if you want to have the Germans and Italians go swanning about in the Med in 1940.
WI: Rommel was right about Malta
All, Rommel was not too keen on invading Malta as he saw that as a diversion of his forces> Further he claimed that by going full speed on Egypt with what he had, he could take Egypt up to Cairo in one big dash. Malta could (according to Rommel) be sufficiently suppressed to ensure that he had...
www.alternatehistory.com
Which is fine because Malta and Crete need taking first.
The ME-109F4 which is what they would have by the time the Alexandria invasion became viable had a range of 1660km which is there and back with some wiggle room. Not law of thirds but... we are talking about the Nazis and the idea for my TL was to have Hitler die early 1940 putting Goering in charge. Meaning over confidence. A Nazi psychopath who massively overestimates his airforce is in charge. Who cares if many pilots dont have the fuel to make it back from a single very important operation.
So I was thinking of having Goering in charge.
If the RN has abandoned the Med a naval landing supported by the Big Guns of Italian Battleships is going to succeed in Malta. Malta. Then Crete. Only then Alexandria (which is why Alexandria aint happening till 1941 and longer ranged german fighters)
This is all important stuff, however Goering would negotiate a different treaty with Vichy. Unlike Hitler he does not get the Worst Diplomat Ever prize.
Alexandria is a major port near the Suez Canal. That is why it matters. Once the city has fallen supplies can be brought in without loss. During the assault supplies can be brought in with some ships being sunk and some making it.
Cities do actually have food and fuel. Yes some things like ammunition cannot be looted, however the city having food means the volume of supplies needed while the city and environs are contested is much smaller.
Cover by Naval Artillery gets them ashore (with some significant losses no doubt). They were pretty veteran and pretty good at urban warfare.
If Alexandria is assaulted, surely they are redeployed?? Besides Ma'aten Bagush is within range for Shore Bombardment. If the RN abandons the Med, that is where the Regina Marina goes first.
The divergence from OTL we are discussing here is that the RN has abandoned the Med because Japan has gone to war with Britain and the Pacific fleet badly needs help.
Well then, the Germans can requisition Sea Lift from southern France. Which is something they can add and given that this is so important and Goering (who I am imagining in charge Hitler dead early 1940) could actually do diplomacy.
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David Flin
Gone Fishin'
I know a bit about amphibious operations.
1. If you do an amphibious assault with naval artillery support on a port, that port is not going to be receiving supplies any time soon.
2. If you do an amphibious assault on a defended city, well, there's a reason no-one does it.
3. You are proposing doing this using forces that have had zero amphibious training and have no amphibious doctrine worked out. Good luck with that.
I've a quarter of a century experience in amphibious operations. I've taken part in an amphibious operation in wartime. It is my opinion that you're talking nonsense.
nbcman
Donor
I thought the POD was Japan was going to war in late 1940 which means that there is no need for the RN to evacuate the eastern Med. Or are you conjecturing that Japan has a crystal ball and knows that France will collapse in mid-1940 and a whole host of other PODs to allow Japan, Germany, and Italy to sally forth in perfect harmony to crush the perfidious Albion?