AHC: Italy trades colonies for irredenta in Austria-Hungary

[raharris1973]

How can we get Italy and Austria to make a swap wherein Italy gets at least the Italian-speaking majority areas of the Austro-Hungarian empire if not some additional historic claims and Italy yields up its colonies in Eritrea, Somalia (and if after 1912, Libya) to Austria-Hungary? You can actually set the PoD a bit pre-20th century as well, as early as the Italian Red Sea colonies.

In each state, who would object most vehemently, and who would be most supportive?

For the Austro-Hungarian, doing a trade that validates the principal could widely be considered a dangerous precedent. On the other hand, Austria-Hungary would not be giving up something for nothing in a territorial swap. If the Romanians or Serbs are encouraged by the example of Italy, I imagine the Austro-Hungarians would retort by asking them what they have of any value to trade for it.

Meanwhile, what substantive objections would their be in Italy. I mean they bled for their colonies, and think perhaps they should have the territory simply by virtue of nationality and history, but it strikes me that the emotional (and quite probably taxable) value of Trentino-South Tyrol and Istria exceeds the emotional value of East and North African spots for virtually all Italians, left to right.

Of course going against this, "prospect theory" says people are more repelled by prospective losses of something they have, than enticed by the prospect of something they do not have.

Anyway. If we make it happen, what are the longer-term consequences?

 

[walmart]

The Italian regions of Austrian empire are too economic or strategical important to be ceded or has a German population.

 

[pjmidd]

Cannot see any time at which A-H would value the Italian colonies more than the Italian speaking regions. The colonies are pretty useless to A-H, just adding more minorities, whilst the regions would cause massive issues if handed over ( loss of defenses , reduced access to the sea, snarling up logistics ) even not counting the emotive hit and what the Hungarians would think.
So a total non starter, you can make the Italians happy only by enraging every other minority and driving the Hungarians to almost certain rebellion.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

IIRC Karl stated he would be open to trading the Italian majority regions of the South Tyrol for one of Italy's colonies as part of a negotiated peace. That is however the exception that proves the rule, Austria being willing to surrender the smallest and least important portion of the Irredanta in exchange for what would have amounted to a third of Italy's overseas empire and even then that would only be to alleviate the Empire from the burden of total war. Istria and Dalmatia are just too important in terms of economic, strategic, and sentimental value for such to even be contemplated under any circumstances.