AHC: Have Bertrand Delanoë elected French President and first major gay head of a Western state

[galileo-034]

Though French politics may not be widely known to readers here, there is Bertrand Delanoë, politician from the Socialist Party, who made his coming out as gay in 1998 amidst debates on civil unions for homosexuals and who nonetheless succeeded in getting elected as mayor of Paris, quite a feat that capturing the biggest city and capital of France, in 2001.

Your challenge would be to imagine a way he could be elected as President of the French Republic, ie to become the first gay to lead one of the more important western nation (nuclear power, permanent seat in UNSC, etc).

A first lead may be his run for general secretary of the Socialist Party in 2008. IOTL, he failed to win leadership, but a success might have put him on a course towards frontrunner status in 2012, pending Strauss-Kahn 'fortunate' demise (perceived as such for Hollande IOTL).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand_Delanoë

 

[GeographyDude]

if he does get elected, the person under the most stress will be his significant other.

If he doesn't have a significant other, there will be a lot of press focus on who's he dating and if he's dating.

 

[galileo-034]

He is surely very discrete or has none since I can't find any intel (well, French mainstream medias have a long story of 'mutual understanding' regarding private life of politicians), but that would make hell of 'presidential' marriage after that of Prince William, though if there is ever one, it would be very private and secretive I guess.

 

[jeandebueil]

Delanoë was a good mayor or at least a quite decent one (and I'm saying this while I'm center-right) but he was too much "Parisian": his campaign to be the socialist secretary in 2008 was a bad one: he barely left the capital and so was quite unpopular in the "province" and depicted as the "arrogant Parisian". Have him leading a better campaign and he can be elected. This plus the Olympic Games for Paris could give him some "prestige". If DSK remains DSK, he has a good chance to beat Hollande and Aubry as he could run as the most sincere (he has the reputation of saying what he thinks, unlike Hollande) and less dogmatic candidate (unlike Aubry, Delanoë has always been a pragmatic tempered with a few sacred principles). Considering Sarkozy's unpopularity, Delanoë can win if he doesn't say/do anything stupid. People could talk about his homosexuality for a moment but Delanoë himself is rather discreet about it and consider it as a private matter so I don't think it will cause much turmoil even within the right (I will remind that the Manif pour tous was mostly against PMA and above all GPA, but not against the idea of two men or women getting married).
I don't know if he would be a great president but two things:
The man always depicted himself as a "social-liberal", meaning he would not lose two years of his mandate at playing the "red socialist" like Hollande (who was anything but this). He would try some reforms, a little like the program of Juppé for the 2017 primaries (some kind of liberal compromise with the presence of the unions). The man can have some authority and don't like the lack of discipline within the PS so he would try to break the frondeurs in a more direct way. For Foreign Policy, since he don't like Britain , expect him to try to screw them if the Brexit still happens. And Delanoë with Putin or Trump could be a funny thing to watch.
Overall, a decent president, mediocre at worst but not the utter disaster that Hollande was (pardon me my judgement here). He could be reelected in 2017 (but he was 67 years old though) with a political landscape more stable than OTL. Or Juppé could beat him by a narrow margin: with Delanoë the liberal not doing something stupid which could anger the right, perhaps the right would not go to much towards the right unlike OTL, meaning Juppé seduces more poeple and beats Fillon who is judged as too extreme by the elctorate.
Overall, this TL would be more "calm" and less chaotic than OTL. But terrorism is still here and Delanoë, being everything Daesh hates, could be firmer than Hollande about repression (again good for his popularity). And if a dumb terrorist try to kill the "heretical sodomite", he could become a sympbol.

 

[galileo-034]

Nonetheless, I would expect him to appoint Hollande as Prime Minister, the man still being an important player from his years as general secretary of the PS.
Considering he would be an assumed social liberal from the beginning and less prone to gaffes, though a Hollande government could be bad in this regard, no better than Ayrault's, I'd expect that he would have less competition come 2017 if Macron doesn't run. I don't think he would win the reelection anyway, but at least, that wouldn't mean the PS is as screwed as it is today.

 

[jeandebueil]

Nonetheless, I would expect him to appoint Hollande as Prime Minister, the man still being an important player from his years as general secretary of the PS.
Considering he would be an assumed social liberal from the beginning and less prone to gaffes, though a Hollande government could be bad in this regard, no better than Ayrault's, I'd expect that he would have less competition come 2017 if Macron doesn't run. I don't think he would win the reelection anyway, but at least, that wouldn't mean the PS is as screwed as it is today.

Like I said, a Delanoë/Juppé election would be more likely. And if Juppé wins, the PS would likely lose the General Elections, but would keep around 180 MPs instead of 29 OTL. So, a defeat, but an expected one by the PS, not a disaster.
PS: Please at Delanoë/Juppé TL!

 

[samcster94]

Where does Le Pen and her hateful group factor into this guy winning?

 

[Archibald]

Depends from what Le Pen. Marine had a couple of gays playing important roles in today's FN (Florian Philippot and the mayor of Hénin-Beaumont i forgot the name). Jabba "father" Le Pen, by contrast... well he is a lost cause for everybody not aryan (albeit Nazis got some gays aryans, so go figure...)