AHC: Had the Italian City-States more Resources/Power, what could they colonise in the West Indies ?

[Jfoul]

So this is kind of a spin-off on the Alternative West Indies thread , but focusing more specifically on the Italian Kingdoms/Republics and City-States as potential colonisers in a context where maybe both Spain and Portugal may be nerfed or at least less ambitious in terms of trad ventures. Additionally, the Italian states maybe benefit from increased resources gathered through the profits of their trading.

There could be various PODs:
- before Colombus' expedition: he was Genoan after all, and could have sought sponsorship from Italian Kingdoms.
- after Columbus' expedition: there's still plenty of room for colonisation, especially if the Vatican is sensitive to some Italian Lobbying and makes a very different Treaty of Tordesillas.
- the Collateral option : what if Spain borrows so much money from an Italian Bank that they have to put one of their West Indies colonies as a collateral, and end up defaulting on their debt... making the Italian Bank the new owner of the colony and by extension the Italian state.

Potential Colonisers :
- Republic of Genoa / Liguria : already seafaring, could either go with Colombus or with the Collateral POD
- Republic of Firenze / Toscana : not much sea power, but plenty of money, the Collateral POD would be the most plausible.
- Venice : More east-oriented but might be swayed by Colombus, potentially the strongest naval power of all if they adapt part of their navy to the Atlantic.
- Lombardy/Milan ?

So which would be the most likely colonisers?
And which islands would be the most likely settlements ?

 

[MusuMankata]

The area corresponding to roughly OTL's French Guayana had been considered as a colony by one of Tuscany's Granddukes, but it didn't come to fruition due to a lack of interest in the investment by the successor. So, just make the Granddukes of Tuscany be more "Americas-oriented" and you could have one part of the West Indies under Italian rule if they move early enough.

Beyond that, you're going to need to find something shaking the Genovese and Venetian merchants out of their complacency as main traders in the Mediterranean for the last step of the Silk Road way before the Ottomans totally pushed them out of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Barbary Pirates became unmanageable. Sadly I have no idea what it would've took, as the fact that the New World was going to be the global economy's main focus for centuries to come was obvious only in hindsight, and without it nothing short of a blindingly fast Ottoman destruction of everything Venetian East of Split would've made Venetians willing to try out alternatives no matter how far-fetched they seemed; while Genoa had the problem of having been pretty anemic economically for the longest time, so it's doubtful Columbus would have gotten enough funds to buy all that was needed to cross the Atlantic even if he had proved for certain that "going West" was going to be lucrative, but had he done so, there's a good chance Genoa could've had obtained a few islands (say, the Bahamas and Porto Rico) once things got rolling.

The idea of islands as a collateral is kind of funny, but I don't think Spain would've been up to set any land as collateral without gutting the bank by sheer spendibg first, and France's efforts in colonizing the West Indies were such that putting any collateral would've been a poisoned gift.

Milan is about the hardest one to think about IMO: it had ambitions on Northen Italy, it controlled a wealthy centre of trade that wasn't too affected by the shift, and it would've had serious trouble in keeping control of anything overseas, by virtue of controlling a navy mostly meant for rivers. Any colonizing effort by Milan, I feel like, would've needed a burning focus on the matter.

 

[Gannt the chartist]

Most unlikely. Tordesillas is 1494 but its there to avoid a Spanish Portuguese war. Also in 1494 Charles VIII invades Italy and you have the whole Savonarola thing going on in Florence. Neither the Pope nor anyone else will be in a hurry to piss of Ferdinand of Aragon, and slightly later needs Gonsalvo de Cordoba to get the French out.

Of the Italian States Genoa at the time is a fief of Milan held on behalf of France I believe, and both are basically pawns in the Italian Wars. Venice is possible but stuck with a deteriorating position in the Aegean and has no capacity to sail the Atlantic.

Florence is currently run by the Mad Monk and the pope will only listen to him if the conversation ends with recanting and probably not then.

Naples is the Two Sicilies with the True and undoubted monarch being Ferdinand of Aragon, see also Golsalvo de Cordoba and Charles VIII.

After that why would any Spanish King allow anyone else to grab a foothold in the Indies. He can basically stomp their home, HM of France and England may dispute the Popes edict as might sundry heretic Dutchmen. If by any chance they do grab an Island they then have to stay out of any war involving England and/or France and the UP or try and defend their now extremely valuable basically indefensible possession from the attentions of said major European naval powers powers.

 

[Thomas1195]

Most unlikely. Tordesillas is 1494 but its there to avoid a Spanish Portuguese war. Also in 1494 Charles VIII invades Italy and you have the whole Savonarola thing going on in Florence. Neither the Pope nor anyone else will be in a hurry to piss of Ferdinand of Aragon, and slightly later needs Gonsalvo de Cordoba to get the French out.

Of the Italian States Genoa at the time is a fief of Milan held on behalf of France I believe, and both are basically pawns in the Italian Wars. Venice is possible but stuck with a deteriorating position in the Aegean and has no capacity to sail the Atlantic.

Florence is currently run by the Mad Monk and the pope will only listen to him if the conversation ends with recanting and probably not then.

Naples is the Two Sicilies with the True and undoubted monarch being Ferdinand of Aragon, see also Golsalvo de Cordoba and Charles VIII.

After that why would any Spanish King allow anyone else to grab a foothold in the Indies. He can basically stomp their home, HM of France and England may dispute the Popes edict as might sundry heretic Dutchmen. If by any chance they do grab an Island they then have to stay out of any war involving England and/or France and the UP or try and defend their now extremely valuable basically indefensible possession from the attentions of said major European naval powers powers.

How about Venice handling the Ambrosian Republic better? It could lead to a Confederate/Commonwealth-style union down the road. The result is that they would have greater resources to try some new stuffs.

 

[Thomas1195]

Milan is about the hardest one to think about IMO: it had ambitions on Northen Italy, it controlled a wealthy centre of trade that wasn't too affected by the shift, and it would've had serious trouble in keeping control of anything overseas, by virtue of controlling a navy mostly meant for rivers. Any colonizing effort by Milan, I feel like, would've needed a burning focus on the matter

You can make the Venice-Ambrosian Republic thing goes differently.

 

[Gannt the chartist]

How about Venice handling the Ambrosian Republic better? It could lead to a Confederate/Commonwealth-style union down the road. The result is that they would have greater resources to try some new stuffs.

Which has nothing to do with the deteriorating situation with the Ottomans and puts Venice at odds or probably at war with any one of or a combination of Sforza, Alfonso V of Aragon and Naples, the House of Orleans, the House of Savoy, A couple of Austrian Archdukes, the Holy Roman Emperor the Medicis and the King of France. So no.

 

[Thomas1195]

Which has nothing to do with the deteriorating situation with the Ottomans and puts Venice at odds or probably at war with any one of or a combination of Sforza, Alfonso V of Aragon and Naples, the House of Orleans, the House of Savoy, A couple of Austrian Archdukes, the Holy Roman Emperor the Medicis and the King of France. So no.

Actually Venice did that IOTL (offered an alliance), but not before attacking and trying to annex Lombardy. Thus, the Milanese was totally pissed and rejected the alliance.

 

[Gannt the chartist]

Slightly more complicated. Its a three way fight between the faction ridden republic, Sforza and Venice. Sforza being by far the best commander with by far the best army and very well entrenched in Pavia. He conquers most of Lombardy, and when betrayed by Milan swaps it for recognition as Duke of Milan with Venice and proceeds to do mean things to Milan. Its because he is so good at that that Venice then tried to ally with Milan to stop him, Milan now starving under siege agrees and Sforza refuses to be ordered by Venice to give up, handily defeats the Venetian Army, again, and benefits from a pro Sforza, pro eating, and not being sacked coup in Milan and then goes on to fight Venice as Duke.

All of which is irrelevant. In 1494 Charles VIII crosses the Alps and destroys the Italian system forever because that causes Ferdy of Aragon to send armies into Naples. As soon as the Major powers intervene they stomp the much less efficient Italians, and hire the effective ones.

And it does not help because in 1453 Mehmed conquers Constantinople and Ottoman rule does not involve oppressing the Orthodox subjects of the Venetian Empire so his expansion in the Venetian Aegean Empire is easy.

Also its irrelevant to taking Islands in the Caribbean. Columbus may have been born in Genoa but his career is as an Atlantic seaman in Portuguese then Spanish service using ships and crews used to long distance Atlantic voyages, which the Venetians are not and even with Milan on board ( and subject to claims by Spain, Naples, the Papacy, Medicis, Savoy, Orleans, Hapsburg and the Emperor) they wont be much help fighting a naval war around Negropont.

 

[Remicas]

Isn't Spain in the way, both geographically (sitting on the Gibraltar strait) and being involved in trying to take over Italy? I doubt they'd let the Italians take over some land in the new world like that.

 

[The Tai-Pan]

Also, how do you prevent later powers from just grabbing it during one of the endless wars in the Caribbean?

 

[Chercha]

The Vivaldi brothers who were looking for a road to India make it to Cabo Verde and back in 1291. Genoese ships start pushing further down the African coast in the following century, in turn spurring the Portuguese on to do the same. Said competition causes the Genoese to find Brazil before the year 1400, let's say by that most cliched way of being blown off course by a storm. Exploration in the decades afterward allows the Genoese to occupy the most opportune places in the New World. By 1492, various stripes of Italians and Iberians will be the major players in the Americas.

 

[Jfoul]

The area corresponding to roughly OTL's French Guayana had been considered as a colony by one of Tuscany's Granddukes, but it didn't come to fruition due to a lack of interest in the investment by the successor. So, just make the Granddukes of Tuscany be more "Americas-oriented" and you could have one part of the West Indies under Italian rule if they move early enough.

Ouh I didn't know about that, that could be a really cool investment indeed, especially if Tuscany has more resources than IOTL. Feels like Italian Guyana could end up being the only colony over there a bit like the lonesome colonial ventures in Africa.

After that why would any Spanish King allow anyone else to grab a foothold in the Indies. He can basically stomp their home, HM of France and England may dispute the Popes edict as might sundry heretic Dutchmen. If by any chance they do grab an Island they then have to stay out of any war involving England and/or France and the UP or try and defend their now extremely valuable basically indefensible possession from the attentions of said major European naval powers powers.

Also, how do you prevent later powers from just grabbing it during one of the endless wars in the Caribbean?

Isn't Spain in the way, both geographically (sitting on the Gibraltar strait) and being involved in trying to take over Italy? I doubt they'd let the Italians take over some land in the new world like that.

This scenario would definitely entail a broader Italian States wank / Spain screw. For Gibraltar, that's critical point... I have no idea how it would be possible to secure an alliance with Barbary Pirates, but if there was a stalemate and the Spanish navy in the Mediterranean and Italian states have a sort of Non Aggression Pact, maybe that would give them enoguh breathing room through the strait, but I'm massively out of my depths on this domain of history.

As for retaining the islands, that's definitely a valid point. Maybe if they manage to concentrate enough resources and settle them properly, though I don't know if many genoans/tuscanese etc. would be willing to migrate to such distant lands.

Also its irrelevant to taking Islands in the Caribbean. Columbus may have been born in Genoa but his career is as an Atlantic seaman in Portuguese then Spanish service using ships and crews used to long distance Atlantic voyages, which the Venetians are not and even with Milan on board ( and subject to claims by Spain, Naples, the Papacy, Medicis, Savoy, Orleans, Hapsburg and the Emperor) they wont be much help fighting a naval war around Negropont.

Mediterranean and Atlantic travel demand indeed very different naval cultures and savoir-faire. I don' know if hired sailors was a common thing at the time, along with trying to copy the caravel designs.... basically I wonder how much of it can be overcome by Italian States banksteamrolling their way into the Atlantic.

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Genoa might have bought one from the Spanish crown if they had really wanted a colony in the Americas.

A third possibility is an Italian/Genoese "Klein-Venedig".
Just like the owner of Klein-Venedig, Genoese bankers were important creditors of the Spanish kings, though the Genoese would have probably more success in the colony business than the German Welsers.